# Stocks: what goes up must go up exponentially and never come down

**URL:** <https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560>\
**Category:** Finance/Investments\
**Created:** [October 12, 2020, 3:37pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560 "2020-10-12T15:37:23Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 9

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**Author:** ![John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/john.s.mill/32/9771_2.png) [@John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/u/John.S.Mill)\
**Post date:** [October 26, 2021, 1:53pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/163 "2021-10-26T13:53:23Z")

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Well, Nio was up 6% too, and still going today.

I need Nio to perform half as good as tesla to be able to retire.

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**Author:** ![1695814](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/1695814/32/38506_2.png) [@1695814](https://community.goactuary.com/u/1695814)\
**Post date:** [October 26, 2021, 2:11pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/164 "2021-10-26T14:11:41Z")

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> [@Mathman](#):
>
> … is Burry still short TSLA?

according to the internets, no.

> **['Big Short' investor Michael Burry says he is no longer short Tesla stock](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-investor-michael-burry-no-longer-short-tesla-tsla-2021-10)**
>
> Burry told CNBC over e-mail that the media had blown his Tesla short bet out of proportion and that it was just a trade.

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**Author:** ![Ranger](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/ranger/32/185_2.png) [@Ranger](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Ranger)\
**Post date:** [October 28, 2021, 6:11pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/165 "2021-10-28T18:11:20Z")

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Looking like a good call on your part

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**Author:** ![John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/john.s.mill/32/9771_2.png) [@John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/u/John.S.Mill)\
**Post date:** [October 28, 2021, 7:08pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/166 "2021-10-28T19:08:32Z")

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congrats @T-roy !

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**Author:** ![T-roy](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/t-roy/32/9180_2.png) [@T-roy](https://community.goactuary.com/u/T-roy)\
**Post date:** [October 30, 2021, 1:41pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/167 "2021-10-30T13:41:25Z")

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I might get to post in the $1M club yet!!!  
Nah, not that close. The stock dividend reintro also helped.

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**Author:** ![Triweasel](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/triweasel/32/159_2.png) [@Triweasel](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Triweasel)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2021, 12:12am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/168 "2021-10-31T00:12:19Z")

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Did Ford announce a new dividend? That would be awesome - I have a ton of shares that I bought when everything crashed in 2008.

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**Author:** ![T-roy](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/t-roy/32/9180_2.png) [@T-roy](https://community.goactuary.com/u/T-roy)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 4:23am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/169 "2021-11-03T04:23:25Z")

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I’ve dumped ford stock and calls. I made a good amount on them in the past few weeks. I’ll get back in on the dip.

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**Author:** ![John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/john.s.mill/32/9771_2.png) [@John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/u/John.S.Mill)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 3:04pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/170 "2021-11-03T15:04:21Z")

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you guys be paying those STI taxes. I don’t dare to touch my portfolio until the 1 year mark is up, also keeps me from making impulsive sells.

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**Author:** ![DeepPurple](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/deeppurple/32/1551_2.png) [@DeepPurple](https://community.goactuary.com/u/DeepPurple)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 3:22pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/171 "2021-11-03T15:22:56Z")

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> [@John.S.Mill](#):
>
> you guys be paying those STI taxes.

There’s a tax on chlamydia now?

Oh wait, you mean Short Term Investments? You unwise dolt! You need to find yourself a more creative accounting firm, and figure out a way to deduct your duvet and pillow shams as expenses. Only little people pay taxes.

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**Author:** ![John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/john.s.mill/32/9771_2.png) [@John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/u/John.S.Mill)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 3:25pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/172 "2021-11-03T15:25:28Z")

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I am a law abiding citizen 🇺🇸

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**Author:** ![BigBlackBen](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/bigblackben/32/973_2.png) [@BigBlackBen](https://community.goactuary.com/u/BigBlackBen)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 4:15pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/173 "2021-11-03T16:15:52Z")

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so do I sell TSLA now or risk it and wait until 1/1/2022 when my income will be lower? (3 months unpaid paternity leave)

no way in hell TSLA is a trillion dollar company

I bought 5 shares in 2015 which has split in 25

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**Author:** ![John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/john.s.mill/32/9771_2.png) [@John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/u/John.S.Mill)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 4:34pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/174 "2021-11-03T16:34:31Z")

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> [@BigBlackBen](#):
>
> I bought 5 shares in 2015 which has split in 25

she’s RETCH

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**Author:** ![DeepPurple](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/deeppurple/32/1551_2.png) [@DeepPurple](https://community.goactuary.com/u/DeepPurple)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 6:05pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/175 "2021-11-03T18:05:32Z")

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> [@John.S.Mill](#):
>
> I am a law abiding citizen

So am I… the tax codes are not written in black and white. They are all written in shades of gray. Paying taxes is voluntary, and you are a sucker if you fall into the trap of automatically forking over your hard earned cash to Uncle Sam. Find a tax advisor that will work for you and against the man.

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**Author:** ![John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/john.s.mill/32/9771_2.png) [@John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/u/John.S.Mill)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 6:08pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/176 "2021-11-03T18:08:26Z")

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> [@DeepPurple](#):
>
> Find a tax advisor

Never done this before. Where do I find a trustworthy one? How much do they cost?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![BigBlackBen](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/bigblackben/32/973_2.png) [@BigBlackBen](https://community.goactuary.com/u/BigBlackBen)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 6:45pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/177 "2021-11-03T18:45:16Z")

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just post the question on bogleheads

but realistically unless you own your own business or generate income from something outside of your w-2 (rental income, selling blood, etc) it is hard to reduce your taxable income by any material amount

these days short term capital gains are not much higher than long term

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/john.s.mill/32/9771_2.png) [@John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/u/John.S.Mill)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 7:00pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/178 "2021-11-03T19:00:49Z")

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> [@BigBlackBen](#):
>
> these days short term capital gains are not much higher than long term

isn’t long term just 15%?

short term stacks on top of my current income, which will be double 15%. I say that’s a material difference.

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**Author:** ![Rastiln](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/rastiln/32/77682_2.png) [@Rastiln](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Rastiln)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 7:56pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/179 "2021-11-03T19:56:45Z")

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> [@John.S.Mill](#):
>
> isn’t long term just 15%?

> **[Personal Finance Advice and Information | Bankrate.com](https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/)**
>
> Control your personal finances. Bankrate has the advice, information and tools to help make all of your personal finance decisions.

Yes, unless you’re a real baller (\>~450k for a single person). If you’re hitting that limit you probably should have a tax guy though.

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**Author:** ![T-roy](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/t-roy/32/9180_2.png) [@T-roy](https://community.goactuary.com/u/T-roy)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 8:30pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/180 "2021-11-03T20:30:08Z")

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I trade in my transferred old 401k to IRA - so no STI’s for me

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**Author:** ![DeepPurple](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/deeppurple/32/1551_2.png) [@DeepPurple](https://community.goactuary.com/u/DeepPurple)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 9:03pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/181 "2021-11-03T21:03:05Z")

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> [@John.S.Mill](#):
>
> isn’t long term just 15%?

Maybe, maybe not. It’s certainly not guaranteed to be exactly only 15%. LTCG is a progressive tax.

> [@Rastiln](#):
>
> Yes, unless you’re a real baller (\>~450k for a single person). If you’re hitting that limit you probably should have a tax guy though.

Sorry, Rastiln, this is factually incorrect. The transition to more than 15% is much lower than 450k income for a single person.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/john.s.mill/32/9771_2.png) [@John.S.Mill](https://community.goactuary.com/u/John.S.Mill)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2021, 9:05pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/stocks-what-goes-up-must-go-up-exponentially-and-never-come-down/560/182 "2021-11-03T21:05:22Z")

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> [@DeepPurple](#):
>
> LTCG

regardless, it maxes out at 20%, which is way lower than my marginal income tax bracket

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