It’s not socialism when the Party of Small Government nationalizes a company.
I am starting to give serious thought to shorting the $Dollar via an ETF
The path of travel (Trump attacks on Fed and filling the board with his apparatchiks) all point to rates being forced down by them and USD FX taking an absolute beating.
The dollar is down about 10% this year.
Sure. But that 10% could easily become 30% over 2026 if Trump goes through with his machinations at the Fed.
I’d think an upper bound would be something like 1.0425^3-1 = 13%. That’s if Trump takes control over the Fed and drops rates to zero from their current level, with the assumption that the current level is appropriate to manage inflation and the economy. I am not sure that inflation due to tariffs is excess inflation that fed should try to offset, and it looks like we are headed at least into some period of low growth in the economy.
If the markets have priced in 10%, there may not be much more to go.
I suppose though, I have “shorted the dollar via ETF” simply by holding regular old international equity ETFs while having no material non-USD future obligations.
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Seems relevant to this thread…
I kind of wonder if the muted response by the markets are because they expect a grown-up will stop Trump from going too far or thinking he’ll chicken out.
As I get older, I’ve noticed that people seem to be dismissive of the big problems as they feel like their over-blown or fizzle out, or because they’ve conflated movies with reality. The 2000 bug was overblown… but billions were spent to prevent it from being the problem it could have been. Acid rain just went away… but we did a whole bunch of stuff to fight it and have managed to reduce its effects. Covid was overblown… millions of people died, and the medical system is still severely disrupted from the after effects. Climate change is overblown… Yet people are struggling from rising food prices, widespread drought, and massive forest fires generating humongous amounts of smoke disrupting enjoyment of summer, and people all over the place are struggling with rapidly rising insurance bills.
I wonder if the same will happen when Trump takes over the Fed. Or does it happen with a whimper that turns into panic when the after effects start happening?
This with bells on.
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This is a massive layoff. 25% over 1Y. Now comes the hyper aggressive cost cutting to try to maintain share prices because revenues have been dinged.
Seems like this is proving accurate so far…
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That seems asinine where Tesla’s market cap is 1.1 trillion.
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They need to get to about 8x for him to get that payoff. I guess it would be justified if he made it happen?
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Who tf is still buying Tesla stock
This needs to be studied
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Or Tesla vehicles.
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over 10 years? That ain’t much alpha, really.
Ford currently produces 2x as many cars and is worth 50B. Tesla being worth 1T currently already has a lot of something else priced in. So where does the alpha come from next?
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Teleoperations masquerading as autonomy is where they seem to excel. From taxis to popcorn serving robots.
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Is it 8× or ~4x? He’s managed to drive share price down a fair amount over the last year. That seems like an excessive share of the company’s growth going to him compared to what we’ve seen with other companies. Is that protecting shareholders?
Maybe my son? PhD candidate, yet sat here last week telling me how NVIDIA was a great stock to buy because AI is only going up, so there stock can only go up, so he can only make more and more money. It’s a money tree all the way down.
I mention the PhD thing to imply there’s some basic level of intelligence there. Some days anyway.
thankfully, after I almost choked on my cookie, he said he’s primarily in ETF’s. NVIDIA is just fun money.
Oh, and importantly, this was in the context of him telling me how he was telling his landlord, a farmer, how he should invest. So now maybe the farmer’s investing in Tesla too, who knows.
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