You know, he’s getting enough of what he wants that he’s not going to stop until someone stops him. For now I think that we have to figure out how to live with it.
Right, I agree with that. Maybe it’s just a phrasing thing? This mess is literally caused by his choices. He is objectively to blame.
It’s incredible hubris that you can ignore over 200 years of economic theory and 150 years of history in favor of your own theory of how things should be done. But this is just an expanded version of what he did in his first term and what he ran on.
This is not a surprise.
He ran on a smaller version of this. If someone lies about what they are going to do, how much do you blame the politician or the voter? What if that politician had a prior term where advisers kept him in line?
It’s hard for me to tell how much your average voter should have expected this outcome. I am plugged in so none of this is too surprising.
So are we going to S&P 5000 or 5500 today?
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And, not or.
10Y treasury yields spiking, USD/EUR eroding. It’s almost like people don’t want our equities, our bonds, or our dollars.
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Trump really fcked up.
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The bond market is unravelling.
This was always the main concern.
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Well the US had a pretty good ride for a long time.
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Makes complete sense, from a traders POV.
Tariffs act as a way to devalue the currency. Usually aimed at a single country/central bank. World wide tariffs are virtually identical to currency devaluation. And that is the oft stated goal as expressed by Scott Bessemt. This will make USA exports more attractive, no doubt.
But consider the proposition to a long bond purchaser. Pony up $10,000 today, and in 10 years I give you the $10k back. Of course that $10k could buy X pounds of coffee today and only a reduced number of pounds when you get your money back. You lose value. So you’ll want increased coupons in the interim..
It’s all part of the plan…raise the debt carry cost of all debt.
Weird plan. Traders are shorting the USA.
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And, conversely, US imports more expensive, potentially adding to US inflation.
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Indeed it will.
I admit I don’t really trust the inflation any longer, but a lot of people here live paycheck to paycheck, with CC debt, student loans, and all sorts of leases/time payments. They have virtually zero or negative net worth. Higher interest rates just put increasing strain on razor thin budgets. It’s tragic.
At some point I hope economics stops with the aggregate models, based on GDP and unemployment rates. Time to maximize something other than aggregate wealth and begin to incorporate some proxy for freedom and happiness. One can only dream.
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Low rates are not typically good for people who have low net worth, because it encourages borrowing.
Low unemployment is better.
I’m not sure how to break it to ya…the bond rates enjoy very little participation from low income households. Those payday loans have a different base line.
Once your rate is based on fed rate + 1900bps…well you’re screwed already. Your children and grandchildren are going to be impoverished.
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yes exactly. people with low net worth should be borrowing as little as possible.
You don’t get it. It’s not volition.its survival.
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Mfer thinks people check the interest rate before signing up for a payday loan
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Afterwards they clarify if it compounds quarterly or annually
Payday loans don’t have much connection with the stock market, but some people do manage to dig themselves out of that hole.
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IIRC, I think some states have usury laws about capping interest rates on loans?
Payday loans (via normal UK company) mostly went out of business in the UK (consumer is a bit better protected here) but they then went fully online and are now proliferating again with some pretty absurd APRs.