Yeah, this is getting really worrisome for me. I got my bonus yesterday, for the time being at least I’m just leaving it parked at 3.75%. 
Time for my son to sell his US tech fund imo.
I see a good stock that was beaten up for a few years and has since recovered due to AI demand. Where is the sky falling on that example? Cuz it surged this quarter?
The chart doesn’t even go back to the dot com boom to match the title.
Could literally post any stock with any headline at this point.
Their chips are not well tested in industry. A lot of money flowing into that stock without much evidence their chips will be competitive.
Is their overall outlook higher or lower than it was 5 years ago when they were worth basically the same adjusted for inflation?
Well, I’m probably pretty good on bonds. But I’m considering taking a big chunk of S&P and moving it to blue chips.
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I think it depends on how they link this to AI. Hardware vs software vs pure AI. It’s certainly worth something that should be additive to the US economy. The total stock market went up in value something like 10T in each of the last two years, from 50 to 70 trillion. Back out the 4% inflation from the period and you have more like a 16T increase of which most of this is likely the value of AI. 20% of the US economy could be AI driven in the coming years? Could AI make my company 20% more valuable? I think we would need to reduce salaries by >40% to net a 20% income increase if my company gets all the benefits. That wont be true - AI will collect its own revenue. We could reduce salaries by 30% with a 10% offset to AI costs. My company value goes up 15% with that AI fee boosting the AI provider by some net amount…maybe that increases the value of both companies by 20% in total? It doesn’t seem that farfetched.
Obviously, this needs to translate into productivity gains and higher per-capita GDP, which will likely eventually happen, after a period of disruption. Or not. Computers transformed the economy more than they killed off all the jobs. Blue collar jobs were replaced with white collar jobs in the middle class, we all moved on. It was fine.
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I was just looking at my Seeking Alpha app this morning and it said that portfolio health is good but momentum is slowing. My calculus tells me that indicates I’m approaching either an inflection point or reversal. It may be a case of only seeing information that matches my preconceived ideas, but I’m taking this as confirmation that I should de-risk my portfolio.
I’m not doing anything too drastic but next week there will be more dividends and less growth in my portfolio.
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I am about 60% now in SK, Taiwan, and Japan.
Been a wild ride so far but I just don’t see how these excessive returns continue beyond this year.
Well, the US Govt has pumped money into them so investors see that spigot possibly continuing while Trump is around.
Whether their chips pan out or not is an open question but investors want to get in early just in case it does.
Thats how I see Intel at this point.
I just placed an order to sell $100k of S&P money, I’m not sure if SCHD is where I’ll land but something like that is where I’ll move it once the transaction closes. Plus my ~27% or so in bonds. And all of my new money over the past few months gets split between BND and SCHD, I might just buy the latter starting now.
So what protection do you have from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? That’s my big worry in terms of geopolitical risk.
TSMC accounts for around half of the Taiwan Stock Exchange Index. They’ve been building a huge manufacturing complex in Phoenix, AZ since 2022. The 4nm chip is operational, while the 3nm is planned for late 2027 and the 2nm in 2029.
They better hurry!
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I agree that its a risk but I would argue its a low probability event in 2026.
My plan is to sell towards the end of 2026 and bank the gains.
China does not want to invade Taiwan. They’ve seen what happened in Ukraine.
If it comes to pass the short-term loss will be followed by a robust rebuilding phase to replace the lost capacity. Semiconductors are here to stay.
How TSM would be impacted is less clear. They’d lose a lot of equipment but semiconductor manufacturing equipment depreciates quickly. I suspect that many employees would flee the island ahead of an invasion and intellectual property is very portable.
The one thing that I’m sure of is that ASML and LAM would be massive beneficiaries if there were an invasion as the rest of the world rebuilds to replace the lost capacity.
Ouch.
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…and it’s still classified as an emerging market.
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Today was quite the party for my brokerage account.
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Pretty wild day. I got lucky buying SCHD two days ago, up 1.97% today!