I live some of the year in Brazil…and its very difficult to invest there. Its a very protectionist country.
I’m sure that’s a major reason for the discrepancy.
For the US investor I’d suggest ETFs or companies like MELI or NU.
A while back I listened to a podcast that tested a number of countries and asset types (with increments in multiples of 10%) to determine the optimal portfolio from a safe withdrawal rate. I noted that the gold holding was 30% which people thought was cray-cray. I think this is it, and since 1970 if you were 10% domestic stock, 30% foreign stock, 20% bonds, 10% commodities, and 30% gold you would have had a safe withdrawal rate of 4.4%. But the absolute worst portfolio is 100% gold. Foreign bonds and Bills were left out in the cold, more or less.
It’s a lot to absorb but looks incredibly interesting.
The optimal holding by individual countries to achieve the highest SWR.
AUS 20% Stock 30% FStock 20% Bond 30% Gold = 5.27% SWR
CAN 40% Stock 20% FStock 20% Bond 20% Gold = 5.41% SWR
FRA 20% Stock 50% Bond 30% Gold = 5.59% SWR
GER 10% Stock 10% FStock 60% Bond 20% Gold = 5.22% SWR
ITA 30% FStock 30% Bond 10% Com 30% Gold = 5.09% SWR
JAP 10% Stock 30% FStock 40% Bond 10% Com 20% Gold = 4.77% SWR
NED 30% Stock 30% Bond 40% Gold = 5.40% SWR
SPA 10% Stock 30% FStock 10% Bond 10% Com 40% Gold = 4.79% SWR
UK 40% Stock 30% Bond 30% Gold = 5.52% SWR
USA 40% Stock 30% Bond 30% Gold = 5.60% SWR
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Some verrrry old decades are doing a lot of heavy lifting for those trend lines to say what you’re hoping for
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Thats an interesting graph.
I think we have discussed withdrawal rates in another thread (financial pmanning?) but only in generalities (3%, 4%, 5%)
Having a high % in gold makes sense when you have a high global debt environment (like now) as most governments will use inflation to reduce that debt in real terms over time.
Here is my rationale for being in mostly European stocks.
OECD Modelling for growth over 2025 and 2026
US Economy shows a marked slowdown due to the tariffs and counter-tariffs, while Europe sees an uptick in growth (primarily due to the large German stimulus package) Will be riding that stimulus wave as much as I can.
Note: the decline in US growth for 2026 is the second highest rate behind the US growth for 2025. Maybe you have the right conclusion, but if you assume economic growth and stock returns are correlated your chart is suggesting the opposite.
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That is just the modelling for Trump’s latest tariffs.
Will get worse as his behavior becomes increasingly unhinged and people stop buying US products and services.
The shift away from the US is very much real. Specially in Europe.
The US has lost its investment allure because of Trump.
The S&P 500 is also still materially over-valued compared historic norms, so I would very much expect this downward trend to continue as investors and fund managers buy European equity as its valuations are lower (and with the defense stimulus that is incoming will be increasing).
lol…are we even still asking that question?
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I linked to the article because they have it neatly summarised in one go.
What was very interesting was the gold imports.
The FT had a really interesting story on that one as the gold bars flow from London to Switzerland (they are then melted and recast to a slighly larger size) to New York.
Next GDP result will be interesting.
I’m kind of expecting the market to have a heavily down day April 2nd . I believe that’s their planned date to put tariffs on everyone. Sounds like it will be a clusterfuck with every tariff worldwide being matched one for one. Importing stuff will be a nightmare.
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Australia had not had a monthly trade surplus with US until last month when it exported $2.9B in gold -
The US Census Bureau reported that the US exported US$2.4bn worth of goods to Australia but imported US$4.6bn, for a deficit (from the US side) of just under $2.2bn. It is the only deficit in records dating back to 1985.
Australia shipped a record amount of gold to the USin January – worth US$2.9bn –
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Not for me. I hired Art Vandelay. Top notch.
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Congrats on the latex body suit
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And accessories
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Are you telling me Trump loves gold?
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It’s somewhat surprising to me that we haven’t seen more of a correction yet in the US stock market. With an apparent imminent trade war, antagonizing of US allies, policies advocating massive expansion of US debt, and a kleptocracy in charge we’ve seen minimal movement overall so far. S&P is only down 2.74% YTD. I’m actually up a little YTD.
Again, this thread is littered with examples of how hard it is to time the market.
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-2% today on the S&P, VIX back over 20. We’re on the way to testing the YTD lows; won’t happen today, but if we go through it next week we probably see 5400 in short order.
The US is looking at 5000 now.
Just look at gold.
The US is looking at stagflation this year, so investors are piling into gold. Institutional money is also leaving the US and rebalancing to Europe because of lower valuations and the need for defense spending.
Its going to be retail investors that are left holding the bag in the US.