I made an application via Revolut for the initial tender.
But got a doughnut.
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Their debt is now trading at spreads closer to junk bond status.
This should surprise no one given their financials.
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I kind of want to buy a share just as a novelty. Should I wait until the can’t-sell period for the executives expires, or does that matter?
I think I’d wait a few months for Musk to say something stupid and the initial shine to wear off.
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And down we go…
https://www.investopedia.com/spacex-hits-new-low-as-stock-nears-ipo-price-elon-musk-spcx-12019482
Eesh. Glad I decided to wait.
I posted this in another thread:
According to this (https://youtu.be/nzh3ltTkBFA?si=MHcQoBmQ7OQkXGlH) there’s a lot of conflict of interest in the SpaceX IPO. Analysts were posting price targets anywhere from 200 - 800, which would be multiples of several hundreds of revenue , not even earnings. The suspicion is that they’re artificially inflating their targets in order to get SpaceX to include them in future deals. Talk about a grift.
Mostly posting this to have something to post…
So what would be a good dntry point for SpaceX? The article seems to suggest $100/share.
I’m wondering if it would get down to $80 if we have a really bad trading day?
Why is any of it worth its current valuation of 1.5-3.0T depending on the day?
Starlink:
12M subscribers paying something like 50-175 a month.
10k satellites in orbit that cost 1.5M each to build and launch, and need to be replaced every 5 years.
That on its own is 3B of cost for 1.2B of revenue.
Commercial launch capability? What are we sending into space? Their fees are like 5x their cost, so whatever it is needs to be 5x more profitable than Starlink.
Their AI? Why would that be worth anything?
Government contracts I suppose? Plenty of other companies that land government contracts are worth a fraction of that.