MA, BF, IPD, JB all switched from “No” when it was pretty much guaranteed that one known M was in the draw and likely to be enacted to “Yes” on what resulted a unanimous Far Right Policy.
I’m pretty sure at least 2 and possibly more are Q.
As you should be. 8F 1M is officially in that “too rare to be real” given we are in a game of deception.
I’m lucky in that I am the only one who knows that the first 6 were FFFFFM for certain. YT knows at least the FFM part and IPD knows at least the FF part. Makes my suspicion of BF easier to prove to me (assuming FFF claim still with no conflict), but understand me being part of that suspicion.
The real spicy thing is… are we going to get conflict??
Sorry. I was passed FR FR
and with not much else to say
The odds of an FFF deal on 6/5 deck were ~12%.
I’ll be checking occasionally for an update from BF on the FBI power
Otherwise, y’all have a great extended weekend.
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That’s actually not as low as I thought.
I was dealt 3 F’s. I blame the mod and his hamster of a mother.
As I see it, I have 3 options for my investigate power (let’s assume for a minute that I’m M here):
- Investigate someone I suspect to be M to confirm
- Investigate someone I suspect to be F to confirm
- Investigate someone who is going to be president soon
I’m leaning towards #1 so that I can know who to trust. I would probably investigate IPD at this point. For an F choice I would investigate MA. Or I could investigate AI to get some info on the next government.
I know at least one of those (me) is just a dumb M with no real information yet. Getting dealt 3 F’s at this point is just really bad luck for me (and the rest of the M’s).
Assuming no lies -
Odds of first deal being FFF - 24.2%
Odds of 2nd deal being FFM - 15.3% (for that exact order. For any order FFM 46.1%)
Odds of 3rd deal being FFF - 12.1%
So odds of all 3 happening 4.5% (exact order) or 13.4% (middle deal any one M)
Of course if that’s what happened and BF is Moderate it’s a pretty good result in that a Moderate has the FBI Raid / Investigation and 8 F polices are out of the deck leaving a 3F / 5M deck to draw from.
It’s too bad I have no confidence in the claims of cards or BF being M. I mean he may be but it’s just not very likely.
So… who should I investigate? I think it makes the most sense for it to either be IPD (so I can know for sure who to trust), MA (so I can confirm an F), or AI (next president). Open to other trains of thought.
I don’t think this math is correct.
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24.2%*15.3%*12.1% =/= 4.5%. Instead, it equals 0.45%.
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IPD is always Hitler (or whoever that is in this game).
Opp missed it by that much. JB is right. I’m only off by a factor of 10.
So yeah. Pretty much I have no confidence in anything BF says for a while. And Kind of suspect of MA too.
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For selfish reasons, I’d vote that you investigate me. However, that could in effect hitch our fates together which I’m not sure would be a good thing right now. Whichever of the 3 you choose, all have the rationale of know who to trust or confirm QAnon.
Not sure what it’s worth, but it also seems that one of the following is true:
-The 2nd draw was actually FFM
OR
-MA AND YT are F’s.
As for the first and third draws, it’s very likely that at least 1 M got dumped, so there is a big spotlight on MA and BF.
Yeah. I don’t dispute that. I know I’m moderate and did actually get FFM in that order and I passed you FM. You know you got FM but can’t verify the order I received the cards.
If the order was not what MA stated or the cards were actually FMM, then that would mean I am Q for not calling out MA and the only reason to not call him out would be if he as also Q.
So if MA lied, then I also lied and we’re both Q.
If MA told the truth (and I know he did) I don’t think that implies anything about me (YT) or MA.
