Probability Trump Dies Before Running Again

Easier to complain about the topic rathe than respond to the actual comment? Did you actually disagree with anything I said in that post?

Yes, I completely disagree and think your concept of “frontrunner for 2024” is meaningless except for a Vegas prop bet. We are done with the election for a while, let’s focus on what actually matters right now.

Good question. I’m hoping both Biden and Trump realize they are way too old by next election.

Or maybe that Trump does run but he goes downhill hard and that makes it harder for Trumpkins to move on to a new monster.

I should have looked at the actual post you were responding to, not a more recent one. Oops.

I agree being the frontrunner now is not much of a guarantee of anything, other than people aren’t moving along very quickly. I think HW Bush was more clearly done as President or the nominee after 92 than Trump is today.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all of Biden decides not to pursue a second term. I think it’s actually more likely that Harris runs in 2024 than Biden.

Nobody is forcing you to partake in this discussion.

point? I wish Trump would disappear, but he’s still putting himself in the spotlight. It’s not that we are obsessed with him. We would love it if he would retire in florida never to be heard from again (outside the many lawsuits against him), but sadly even without social media, he’s still finding a way to be relevant in the political spotlight.

I was glad that MSNBC gave his recent appearance very little air time.

then there is also a little bit of this :grimacing:

(2) Election Ad - SNL - YouTube

I would be surprised if he did pursue a 2nd term.

I believe he thought he had the best chance to beat Trump and that was Job 1. He is building Kamala up more than most Presidents do for their VP, especially 1st term presidents

:iatp:
I miss the driverless car thread.

2021 was the year a lot of stuff was supposed to happen too. 2022 also. It sucks that thread disappeared. People kept telling me I was being ridiculously pessimistic when I said that I would not be able to purchase a car with no steering wheel or gas or brake pedals in the year 2021. I ended up getting the car in 2020, not 2021. But it continues to not be possible to buy a car with no steering wheel or brake pedal, as far as I’m aware.

I thought it was crazy when in 2018 someone on AO pointed out that Joe Biden was the front-runner for the 2020 Democratic nomination.
:woman_shrugging:

Nope! People in that thread (me) kept telling you that you were setting unreasonable goals. Like being “able to purchase a car with no steering wheel”. We all agreed that was both unlikely and unimportant and talked about other things.

Fwiw, I agree that 2020 was supposed to be the year of success. And I was honestly surprised that Google overshot so bad.

I’m terrible at remembering who said what, but someone in that thread was absolutely saying that by [some crazy early date the pre-dated my planned car replacement date] that it would be possible to buy a car with no steering wheel. My statement that it wouldn’t be possible was directly refuting someone who said it would.

So while your predictions may not have been bat shit crazy, an awful lot of people’s were.

Ahh, okay, fair enough. Anyway, we need a new line of predictions!

Only I’m uncomfortable now making predictions when even google isn’t excited about the future.

Here is -a- self-driving vehicle thread:

Get predicting, y’all!

Thoughts on a few past posts without quoting them all:

  • I thought Biden had said he was only going to serve one term. I’d put his chances of running in '24 at 0.01%.
  • Yes, on March 8, 2021 we’re talking about who might run in 2024. Welcome to the future, this “talking about the prospective nominee 3 1/2 years or more from now” thing started probably 20 years ago when Gore lost, and it really started 12 years ago after McCain lost.
  • If he runs, it’s going to be really difficult for the GOP to not choose him no matter how often he demonstrates he’s a drag on the ticket. The GOP is still a Cult of Trump, they won’t quit him for a while. [Whenever DJT Jr. tries to take over, that will probably break the spell and they’ll be searching for the next wanna-be dictator.]
  • I think we should distinguish between “will DJT be healthy enough to run again” and “will DJT run again.” The latter, I’d put at almost 100% unless he’s sitting in a jail cell - in which case I’d put it at 90%. The former, I’d put under 20%.
  • Even if he for some reason doesn’t run, I maintain he’s going to have a significant role in choosing who the GOP nominee is and large numbers of people will vote however he tells them to. Then it’s a question of whether or not Democrats are motivated like they were in '20 to go vote for their candidate / against the GOP nominee. If not, the DNC better hope to hell it figures out how to put together an effective national and state-level campaign for the first time in years.

Sadly I think that’s mostly accurate, except I have no recollection of Biden actually saying he wasn’t going to run in 2024.

That doesn’t mean much, but I didn’t think he’d actually announced it.

I agree, pretty sure it was assumed by everyone, but he never actually said it or even strongly hinted at it

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It was never official, but his VP and cabinet picks seem to support what is discussed in the article. It certainly feels like he is trying to make sure there are good options to come after him.

I think he mentioned it during the primary but the comment came off as him being weak and he immediately back tracked it.

out here in trump land, there is whispers of Florida man taking the reins. Seems to have a similar agenda as trump, could likely get the nod from trump (assuming he does his bidding), and by far the best thing about him, he is not trump.