# Prediction markets **URL:** \ **Category:** General\ **Created:** [March 2, 2026, 1:43pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546 "2026-03-02T13:43:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/colonelsmoothie/32/136_2.png) [@colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/u/colonelsmoothie)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2026, 1:43pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/1 "2026-03-02T13:43:48Z")
The only thing I’m really surprised about is that these things didn’t crop up earlier. I would have thought the technology to make them has existed for a long time now. ---
**Author:** ![colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/colonelsmoothie/32/136_2.png) [@colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/u/colonelsmoothie)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2026, 1:53pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/2 "2026-03-02T13:53:21Z")
Anyway… > **[Prediction markets under scrutiny over Iran war bets | The Jerusalem Post](https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-888475)** > > Odds moved sharply as rumors of his death circulated and analysts drew attention to a wave of wagers placed on his ouster both right before the attacks, as well as in January. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/the_polymath/32/83081_2.png) [@The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/u/The_Polymath)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2026, 1:54pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/3 "2026-03-02T13:54:48Z")
They are clearly being manipulated by insiders. Trump’s kid (Don Jr) also sits on the board of these things. ---
**Author:** ![The\_President](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/the_president/32/70075_2.png) [@The\_President](https://community.goactuary.com/u/The_President)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2026, 2:04pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/4 "2026-03-02T14:04:46Z")
Thankfully DTJ doesn’t have scandalous photos on a laptop, so we should be safe. ---
**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2026, 4:10pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/5 "2026-03-02T16:10:46Z")
> [@colonelsmoothie](#): > > The only thing I’m really surprised about is that these things didn’t crop up earlier. I would have thought the technology to make them has existed for a long time now. They’ve been around for a decade at least. I think the difference is that predictit and betfair were more regulated. You could bet on bombing Iran, but you couldn’t bet enough to get rich by bombing Iran. ---
**Author:** ![colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/colonelsmoothie/32/136_2.png) [@colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/u/colonelsmoothie)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2026, 2:22pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/6 "2026-03-23T14:22:12Z")
> **[Polymarket gamblers threaten Israeli journalist over missile strike story](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/polymarket-gamblers-threaten-israeli-journalist-missile-strike-wager)** > > Emanuel Fabian says his routine report became focus of wager with $23m at stake on online prediction platform ---
**Author:** ![colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/colonelsmoothie/32/136_2.png) [@colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/u/colonelsmoothie)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2026, 2:13am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/7 "2026-03-26T02:13:12Z")
[https://www.mediaite.com/politics/trump-accused-of-giving-his-mates-inside-information-to-make-big-bets-on-market-in-fiery-speech-from-british-lawmaker/](https://www.mediaite.com/politics/trump-accused-of-giving-his-mates-inside-information-to-make-big-bets-on-market-in-fiery-speech-from-british-lawmaker/) ---
**Author:** ![colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/colonelsmoothie/32/136_2.png) [@colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/u/colonelsmoothie)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2026, 12:01pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/8 "2026-04-09T12:01:20Z")
> **[Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours...](https://apnews.com/article/polymarket-iran-trump-ceasefire-prediction-markets-350d9fe5ffefa74080ff5dd973aef48b)** > > A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for those users. ---
**Author:** ![Maphistos\_Sidekick](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/maphistos_sidekick/32/84973_2.png) [@Maphistos\_Sidekick](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Maphistos_Sidekick)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2026, 5:51pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/9 "2026-04-20T17:51:37Z")
John Oliver’s latest looks at prediction markets – [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZN4njIQcSR4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZN4njIQcSR4) NSFW for language and dildoes. ---
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2026, 6:00pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/10 "2026-04-20T18:00:07Z")
Very good report. Anyone “investing” on these sites without inside info is a chump. Too bad the world is full of chumps. ---
**Author:** ![quoll](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/quoll/32/81747_2.png) [@quoll](https://community.goactuary.com/u/quoll)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2026, 4:48am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/11 "2026-04-21T04:48:44Z")
A chump and his money are soon parted. ---
**Author:** ![colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/colonelsmoothie/32/136_2.png) [@colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/u/colonelsmoothie)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2026, 11:23pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/12 "2026-04-22T23:23:20Z")
> **[Kalshi suspends, fines 3 congressional candidates in 'insider trading'...](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/kalshi-insider-trading-congress.html)** > > The incidents involved a candidate from Virginia seeking a Senate seat and candidates running for House seats from Minnesota and Texas. ---
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2026, 11:36pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/13 "2026-04-22T23:36:45Z")
Wow, three. Probably thousands of insiders betting, er, “investing” in outcomes they already know. Bots, too. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/the_polymath/32/83081_2.png) [@The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/u/The_Polymath)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2026, 1:19pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/14 "2026-04-23T13:19:26Z")
Another case of fraud in France. > On April 6, one wallet made $13,990 in profit on a stake of less than $30 after betting that the temperature in Paris would hit 21C. The account, which was opened this month, bought so-called event contracts when their price suggested the probability of a payout was just 0.2 per cent. > > On April 15, when the recorded temperature jumped in a few minutes from 18C to 22C before falling back, another wallet made more than $21,000 on a stake of just $119 by betting that the temperature that day would exceed 18C, at a time when the price of the contract suggested a probability of about 0.5 per cent. On both days, trading volume on Polymarket’s “Highest temperature in Paris” market exceeded $500,000 — more than double the typical daily volume for this market. ![Screenshot_20260423_081637_Samsung Browser](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/d/1/d1c97efb1d25518a487675ec358b00285fe1dc1a.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2026, 4:02pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/15 "2026-04-23T16:02:32Z")
Who is taking the other side of this bet, er, hedge investment, and why? ---
**Author:** ![colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/colonelsmoothie/32/136_2.png) [@colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/u/colonelsmoothie)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2026, 10:31am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/16 "2026-04-24T10:31:18Z")
> **[DOJ arrests soldier who made $400,000 betting on Maduro's removal](https://abcnews.com/US/doj-arrests-soldier-made-400000-betting-maduros-removal/story?id=132325426)** > > Authorities have arrested a U.S. soldier involved in the capture of Nicolas Maduro for allegedly pocketing more than $400,000 by betting on his capture, sources say. ---
**Author:** ![colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/colonelsmoothie/32/136_2.png) [@colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/u/colonelsmoothie)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2026, 1:15pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/17 "2026-06-03T13:15:01Z")
> **[George Santos reported to prosecutors over suspicious Kalshi trades, AP...](https://apnews.com/article/george-santos-kalshi-2ea925949a0f3f72ec46411b41344858?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=share)** > > A prediction market reported former U.S. Rep. George Santos to federal prosecutors after he boasted he’d be going to President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, then bet against his own attendance. ---
**Author:** ![colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/colonelsmoothie/32/136_2.png) [@colonelsmoothie](https://community.goactuary.com/u/colonelsmoothie)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2026, 1:10am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/18 "2026-07-06T01:10:44Z")
> **[Southern California wildfire betting site sparks arson fears as blazes spread](https://www.thecooldown.com/green-business/wildfire-betting-platform-sparks-arson-fears/)** > > A new betting platform is trying to turn that danger into a market. ---
**Author:** ![Breadmaker](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/breadmaker/32/83065_2.png) [@Breadmaker](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Breadmaker)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2026, 3:40am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/19 "2026-07-06T03:40:48Z")
LinkedIn feed had a post by some dude talking about how some coverages could be provided by a prediction market. He uses NFL point spreads as an analogy. ---
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2026, 4:47am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546/20 "2026-07-06T04:47:59Z")
> [@cool down](#): > > A new betting platform is trying to turn that danger into a market. Or, “that market into a danger.” [Next page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/prediction-markets/12546.md?page=2)