Nikki Haley statement about Joe Biden's life expectancy

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is supposed to have said that Joe Biden isn’t likely to make it to age 86, which would be his age at the end of a second term.

I prefer not to comment publicly on politics. However, this is about life expectancy and actuarial mathematics. I am not a life actuary and so I am not qualified to give formal statements of actuarial opinion on life expectancy. But I think unless Ms. Haley knows something specific of President Biden’s health that make his life expectancy shorter than that of an average 80 year old, my conclusion is that Ms. Haley has stated an opinion that is contrary to actuarial mathematics.

I invite my colleague life actuaries to chime in.

According to Social Security mortality, the probability an eighty year old survives at least six more years, 6p80 = .58 for US males. Lower than I thought but still more likely than not that he would survive his second term.

Club Vita has looked at this already (I do know some of their Actuaries in the UK)

Based on their postcode-based longevity models, they have Biden with a life expectancy of 91, and Trump with a life expectancy of 90.

The main driver of Trump (90) coming behind Biden (91) is his current BMI (30).

That is above the SS security figure which could be depressed as it was based upon 2020 mortiality which included COVID mortality,

Social Security also includes a lot of people who are very unhealthy. Biden’s not obese, doesn’t smoke AFAIK, and I don’t think we know of any major health problems. I’m sure he’s healthier than the average Social Security recipient his age.

He did have the aneurysm in 1988 but I don’t know if that has any impact on his life expectancy at this point.

Didn’t @meep do this calculation at one point?

That tends to be due to high blood pressure.

If he controls it now (likely with medication), its not really a risk for him.

1 Like

What would be an appropriate life expectancy table for this purpose?

That’s the trick. There’s no appropriate table for a single individual.


Did she take his health into account though? Others did the calculation here and were commenting on the differences… I was just pointing out that health plays into it.

1 Like

Agreed. Nevertheless, what is an appropriate table in general?

He’s upper class… I’d choose an annuity pricing table.

1 Like

I’ve done something like this multiple times.

This looks like the most recent version:


Old Politicians: Trump v. Biden v. Clinton

1 Like

Well presented article.

Nikki Haley’s statement could certainly be interpreted as a strictly life expectancy-related comment, however it could also be interpreted as a mental-capacity statement. I don’t think anyone can honestly argue that Joe Biden isn’t currently showing signs of reduced mental capacity - it’s not a big stretch of the imagination to extrapolate for 6 more years.

I don’t think she really clarified what she was inferring.

i also think she is claiming ground about her party’s front runner in the same statement, but dares not say it directly. also includes your suggestion regarding mental capacity.

this is a win-win for her despite her being “past her prime” herself (good god was the comment about her insane).


Here’s my update.

And a graph

If Biden isn’t babbling completely in conspiracy theories by the end of his first term I’ll be shocked.

1 Like

You SOA people have such morbid jobs

Also, very cool