Divisional match up. I stay away from those best I can. But I’m already out this year, so what do I know!
I don’t avoid divisional games. That should already be baked into the line. I remember reading something years back that divisional games don’t really have a greater chance of upset than non-divisional games. I couldn’t find what I was thinking of with a quick google search, but I did find this snippet looking at games from the NFL expansion season in 1995 through 2007:
KC was -4 on the road in Tennessee.
they are getting their asses kicked. less than 7 minutes of possession in 1st half
I went Pats
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My league was all over AZ. They’ll likely get away with it, but I’m glad I didn’t pick them. A few went GB. One bold soul went LV. One is on LAR, so that’s the last chance of an elimination this week.
SEA is now down to -3.5, so I am no longer feeling warm and fuzzy with that pick this week. Everyone will probably be all over BUF v MIA or LAR @HOU. CIN @NYJ will also get some love. I’ve already burned LAR and CIN, so I’m leaning KC v NYG at the moment
Seems very risky to ever put money on the G-Men.
To be clear, I’m leaning KC. I wouldn’t pick NYG in any game this season
Is Mahomes playing?
I assumed that was why he was picking the NYG.
Chiefs look lost right now. Giants looked good vs Carolina, and if Mahomes is out I wouldn’t touch the Chiefs this week.
I am assuming Mahomes plays. If not I’ll go another direction
At the moment I’m still on KC.
This particular pool also has an “Undead” pool: an optional rebuy for all players Halloween week to get into a separate pool with a fresh start. I bought in, and have penciled in the Rams as my pick there this week. CIN would be a good pick there, but I think everyone will be all over that one in the undead pool so I’m avoiding it
At least 14 people out of the remaining 26 in my pool have already been eliminated this week, most on the Bungles. At least 4 of 19 in the rebuy pool are out already. Could be a great week if my KC pick works out.
Curse me for picking the bengals! Out.
11 left!
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Possible picks this week based on early lines:
BUF @ JAX -14.5
IND v NYJ -10.5
DAL @ DEN -10
LAR v TEN -7.5
PIT v CHI -6.5
MIA v HOU -6.5
NO v ATL -6.0
BAL v MIN -5.5
I could use BUF in either pool. In the big pool they are only still available for me and one other guy, so it’s a safe pick. I think I will probably save them in the big pool, and I’m definitely saving them in the undead pool
IND looks like a good pick for undead provided too many aren’t on them. Penciled it in. I burned them already in the big pool.
DAL could be a decent choice in either. However I’m looking ahead a bit in week 12 when all the lines will be a TD or less. DAL will likely be the safest pick for that week. Perhaps I’m thinking too far ahead but that week could create some carnage, particularly for people that have burned DAL and TB already. Only 3 people other than me still have TB left, and only 6 have DAL left, so if a bunch of people burn DAL this week it could be a setup to clean out players in week 12 regardless of whether I make it there or not. This could be an argument to take BUF this week in the big pool. I’ll think about it.
I burned LAR in both pools already
PIT is the team I have penciled in right now in the big pool. Not feeling great about it. Their matchup next week vs DET is even tastier at -9.5 which is when I was planning to use them, but likely many other players are thinking the same thing. I’d have to burn another team for next week if I am safe this week (maybe BAL @ MIA -5.5)
On paper I think the team to pick is MIA. They have decent odds to win per the Vegas line, have garbage future value, and I doubt many people will pick them. I am just not feeling like I can trust them even vs lowly HOU. Maybe I’ll change my mind as I think this is the best long term EV pick on paper.
I might have been in on NO this week before the Winston injury. Just not feeling warm and fuzzy with counting on Semian. Might still do this one.
BAL is still a possibility too.
I’m also out from picking CIN
I’m waffling on my pick this week. I still have PIT penciled in but am seriously considering burning Buffalo