Is Mahomes playing?
I assumed that was why he was picking the NYG.
Chiefs look lost right now. Giants looked good vs Carolina, and if Mahomes is out I wouldn’t touch the Chiefs this week.
I am assuming Mahomes plays. If not I’ll go another direction
At the moment I’m still on KC.
This particular pool also has an “Undead” pool: an optional rebuy for all players Halloween week to get into a separate pool with a fresh start. I bought in, and have penciled in the Rams as my pick there this week. CIN would be a good pick there, but I think everyone will be all over that one in the undead pool so I’m avoiding it
At least 14 people out of the remaining 26 in my pool have already been eliminated this week, most on the Bungles. At least 4 of 19 in the rebuy pool are out already. Could be a great week if my KC pick works out.
Curse me for picking the bengals! Out.
11 left!
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Possible picks this week based on early lines:
BUF @ JAX -14.5
IND v NYJ -10.5
DAL @ DEN -10
LAR v TEN -7.5
PIT v CHI -6.5
MIA v HOU -6.5
NO v ATL -6.0
BAL v MIN -5.5
I could use BUF in either pool. In the big pool they are only still available for me and one other guy, so it’s a safe pick. I think I will probably save them in the big pool, and I’m definitely saving them in the undead pool
IND looks like a good pick for undead provided too many aren’t on them. Penciled it in. I burned them already in the big pool.
DAL could be a decent choice in either. However I’m looking ahead a bit in week 12 when all the lines will be a TD or less. DAL will likely be the safest pick for that week. Perhaps I’m thinking too far ahead but that week could create some carnage, particularly for people that have burned DAL and TB already. Only 3 people other than me still have TB left, and only 6 have DAL left, so if a bunch of people burn DAL this week it could be a setup to clean out players in week 12 regardless of whether I make it there or not. This could be an argument to take BUF this week in the big pool. I’ll think about it.
I burned LAR in both pools already
PIT is the team I have penciled in right now in the big pool. Not feeling great about it. Their matchup next week vs DET is even tastier at -9.5 which is when I was planning to use them, but likely many other players are thinking the same thing. I’d have to burn another team for next week if I am safe this week (maybe BAL @ MIA -5.5)
On paper I think the team to pick is MIA. They have decent odds to win per the Vegas line, have garbage future value, and I doubt many people will pick them. I am just not feeling like I can trust them even vs lowly HOU. Maybe I’ll change my mind as I think this is the best long term EV pick on paper.
I might have been in on NO this week before the Winston injury. Just not feeling warm and fuzzy with counting on Semian. Might still do this one.
BAL is still a possibility too.
I’m also out from picking CIN
I’m waffling on my pick this week. I still have PIT penciled in but am seriously considering burning Buffalo
While I do not gamble on individual games, I do participate in a Las Vegas Hilton-type handicapping contest each year. This has been my worst year in a while.
I play in a contest with some friends each year where we pick every game against the spread each week. Spreads always include a .5 point so there are no pushes, which means some lines are slightly adjusted. Most seasons our group is above 50%, but generally not enough enough to beat the juice. This year we are bad. I’m in the lead with 60 correct (62 misses)
I’m safe in the undead pool as I picked IND.
Still waffling on PIT, MIA, or BUF in the main pool
I switched to BUF. I think the field will get whittled down a lot over the next 3 weeks so I’m taking the safest play available to me
My pool went
3 IND (safe)
3 DAL (getting smoked early)
3 PIT (MNF)
1 BAL (getting smoked early)
1 BUF (me. currently tied)
Sigh. I’m out.
Still alive in the small undead pool and a bunch of people went out today. If KC wins there will be 7 left, otherwise 6.
Of course, the past 2 weeks I’ve gone 5-1 and 6-0. $$ for going 6-0. Odd year.
In the past few weeks I had an 11-3 week and a 2-12 week. lol.
For several years I played in a pool of ~400 people that included a number of different NFL games, including picking every game every week ATS. There was a bonus if anyone had a perfect week ATS. The game had a very low buy-in ($20-25 IIRC) and only a small piece went towards the perfect week bonus, but it had rolled over for many years without anyone winning so the prize had gotten pretty large. When someone finally hit it the guy decided it was a good run and shut the game down. Too bad, as it was a lot of fun. He used to post on the AO some but was not a prolific poster, and I’m not sure he made it here.
I think the games included:
Annual Winner ATS (Winner and first few got a nice payout, and maybe top 35-50 got paid. I cashed in the top 20 once I think). You got your money back if you had the worst ATS record
Weekly winner ATS
Cumulative Margin of Victory for the season
Beat the Dog (his dog picked 6 games ATS/week, and whoever beat the dog the most for the season won)
Survivor
Perfect week bonus
These season long pools satisfy any type of gambling urge for me. My pool has a similar # of people, but buy-in is over $300 for the season. 6-0 in a given week wins money, but you split it depending on how many went 6-0; carries over if nobody goes 6-0. 0-6 gets you $50. Maybe 10% of the entries get paid out for the cumulative results after week 17 (18).
I like the side contests in your pool. For some reason, I generally don’t like picking all games.