NFL Survivor Picks

Who’s playing survivor this season? Who do you like in week 4?

A lot of people might be on BUF v HOU. It’s by far the safest looking play, but BUF has a lot of future value too.

Other options I’ll consider:

Steelers are in disarray, and Packers have Rodgers looking comfortable after a terrible opener.

Bills over the Texans. It’ll be ugly.

Whoever over the Jets, unless “whoever” is Chicago. Yes, that includes Jacksonville and the Giants.

I kind of like Jacksonville against Cincinnati, but not enough to stake anything on it.

Of the four (five) posted I like NO – not 100% sure what their future value is

As bad as Jets playing I have a road game as the best Option a team will have all year
Don’t trust KC right now, use them when they show they are right. and see above
Buf is an obvious, but yes you will have future picks
Cin/Jax s is a possibility, my 2nd choice

New Orleans
Green Bay

One of those 4 imo.

Tampa and KC have too much value to risk them on road games vs teams with hints of potential, especially after coming off of losses.

Buffalo just has too much value, I would save them.


I’m leaning CIN or NO.

CIN has basically zero future value. NYG on the road in stinky town will likely be ugly, and I am not high on too many NO future games either but they do have some future value.

I did pick CIN. Whew.

Every game i recommended was garbage. Cincinnati squeaked it out somehow. Saints lost. Titans gonna lose. Packers losing early.

I’m still alive with a squeaker on the Vikings.

Next week will be a little tougher to pick, as I think everyone will be all over Indy v HOU. I might go that way too, but I always hate picking a team that everyone is on in survivor as that’s a golden potential opportunity

Looks likely most people will be on one of 3 teams, with most on the first 2:

Right now I have IND penciled in, but I hate picking a team that might have 25-40% of the pool on them. The Rams might have even more folks on them, but I’ve burned that pick already. PIT home vs SEA and DEN home vs LV are probably the next best ones to consider after the 3 above, but I don’t know that I want to go that risky either.

Despite flaming out early in the dbl elimination reverse surivor pool here, I am still alive in my survivor pool. I bet the PIT play has the highest EV, but I am not pulling the trigger on that one. IND and PIT do both have upcoming weeks where they are in play. I am likely going with IND.

It is a toss up between KC and IND for me if I just needed to survive for one week.

IN has one win, not sure why they are so favored

Such a road favorite week, would think either LAR or KC would be a solid pick, but have to have a better future week.

IN looks like the best home pick. If Wilson is out - Pit is an interesting pick, not sure of Roeth status

I went IND. Everyone survived this week in my pool.

We’ve got 26 people left out of 47. This particular pool continues into the playoffs if necessary, so I’m wondering if I should start reserving a couple of teams in the unlikely event it goes that far. Even though it’s a relatively small pool, it did go to the Superb Owl once before

how does it work in the playoffs if you run out of teams? or does it reset in the playoffs?

If you run out of teams you are out

That’s my plan, though it means at some point I’m going to have to start picking on “good” teams to lose and risk taking a strike. But I’m hoping others fall before we get to Week 18 so we don’t have to go through the list of remaining teams and then I’m out of certain Ls and have to start choosing which of the really good teams are “most likely” to take an L at the end of the season.

so in a season w 18 weeks and 4 weeks of playoffs, damn - you have to balance the long play here. I suspect that barring a shocking SB, all players making that level are in the same boat.

I put some more thought into a possible path that would leave me some options for the playoffs. Might be going too risky here on some, so very much subject to change any time. Injuries could dramatically change strategy too.

Week 7: NE v NYJ -7
Week 8: SEA v JAX -9
Week 9: MIA v HOU -9 will MIA really be favored by 9 over anyone? Could go NO v ATL -7.5
Week 10: PIT v DET -9.5
Week 11: CLE v DET -13.5
Week 12: DAL v LV -6 Tough week for everyone, with every spread <7 at the moment
Week 13: KC v DEN -7
Week 14: DEN v DET -10.5
Week 15: SF v ATL-7
Week 16: LAC @HOU -11
Week 17: NO v CAR -6 Might have to burn a better one here. We’ll see who/what’s left
Week 18 and playoffs teams still unpicked: TEN, BUF, AZ, TB, BAL. Could burn BUF v NYJ -17, TB v CAR -10.5, TEN @ HOU -7.5 depending on how playoffs are looking

I’ve penciled in NE vs NYJ -7.5 for now, but survivorgrid has them as only the 6th best choice in terms of weekly EV. Too risky?

I’ve already burned LAR and GB who they have as high EV, so the other choices are:
TB vs CHI -13. Big spread, but also lots of future value. High EV this week as not many predicted to use them
AZ vs HOU -17.5. Big number, lots of future value. Survivorgrid has AZ getting picked at a 47% rate.
BAL vs CIN -6.5. BAL has been a bit jekyll and hyde this season. I like NE better in terms of weekly odds and lack of future value

Who are you going with?

I am a Jets fan

There are three big games - easy pickings - GB, LAR & TB should all make the playoffs and have future value

NE is just not that good. Conference game, 2nd match-up, prime for an upset, but still the best Long Term value pick