No, that’s why I have no idea if it’s still true. I assume it was a small study. And this was back when MS diagnosis was more a process of elimination than it is today(which it still often is..).
I figure the disparity between the .001 → .01 and 50% has to do with the cost/effort of an MRI means having a sibling diagnosed with MS is not sufficient to make people have an MRI. I am guessing those siblings who got an MRI also had symptoms. The flip side is that lesions may be identifiable on an MRI well before symptoms. Probably somewhere in the middle.
No the 50% figure was of asymptomatic siblings. It was a study of some sort. You could strip some insulation off an electrical cord and it might still work.
The US is losing a lot of people in the 25-40 age range.
Thats what is reducing mortality improvements in the US
Question then is, why?
Firearms?
School shootings?
Shitty diet?
Darwinistic actions?
Lack of vaccinations?
Fentanyl?
Here: [it is almost definitely in this thread, earlier on]
drug ODs, homicides, motor vehicle accidents
Mostly drug overdoses.
You can click through for all the graphs
contributions to increase in mortality compared to 2019, in 2022
1 Like
the drug overdose death trend was pretty bad pre-pandemic, but it did jump up pretty high in 2020, and remains elevated
the 18-24 age group:
drug ODs become more prominent with older ages
It has its worst impact in 40s, actually
2 Likes
Thank you. I thought as much. Didn’t think it was THAT prevalent.
1 Like
Will be talking at Mid-Atlantic Actuarial Conference on Tuesday November 12, a Zoom-based meeting:
I will be doing my mortality trends update – through full-year 2023, a little bit of 2024
2 Likes
One thing that has steadily increased in Canada, since it was legalized in 2016, is medically assisted deaths. For example, here in BC, they represented 8% of total deaths in the second quarter of 2024.
My sense is that this cause of death has not yet become significant in the US states that permit it?
1 Like
Mortality in the United States, 2023
Here’s the report on drug OD deaths:
Let me grab some graphs from each:
3 Likes
Overdoses included in “unintentional injuries” category? Needs its own category.
1 Like
YES I HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR YEARS
anyway, I’m annoyed that motor vehicle accidents are in there, too.
What the big accidental causes of death are differs a LOT by age – as I have noted, for little kids, the biggest one is drowning.
3 Likes
Should I be surprised that the 35-44 range is the highest? I would have thought that people with substance issues would have started having said issues in their teenage years and that it would follow them into their 20s.
But 35-44 is when you lose that youthful vigor that helps you bounce back, and the long-term damage has accumulated to a critical mass. Think about smoking and overeating. 40ish is about when you start seeing the heart attacks and lung cancer.
Do drugs take as long as smoking to have a lethal effect? Asking from a point of lack of knowledge in these matters.
Depends on the drugs.
I would argue that alcohol use and smoking have a larger effect in your 40s if you spent your 20s and 30s smoking and drinking in excess.
It takes a while before the heart disease or lung cancer kills you.
Though my dad, who died when he was 38 of a heart attack, started smoking when he was 19… but he died unusually young. I found out later he had two uncles who died of early heart attacks (thanks for the warning, grandma!)
That said, most people, even smokers, tend not to die of heart attacks until much older than that. Emphysema also tends not to kick in until much older.
Alcohol can kill you faster.
1 Like