Mortality trends (non-pandemic)

I’ve actually considered it, especially if winters get milder and/or more harsh



Mary Pat Campbell, FSA, MAAA


In this report, we consider high-level results from provisional mortality data released from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for 2021, including looking at changes by sex and age group. There are multiple measures for mortality that can be used in investigating trends. In this paper, we will be using crude death rates, age-adjusted death rates, and period life expectancy.


2021 Provisional U.S. Population Mortality Key Observations


Sorry, didn’t obligate today, will atone by listening to “blogcast.”

Awesome graph of crude mortality rising while age-adjusted mortality dropping.

It was very clear, should be easy for a non-actuary to follow along. Thank you.
I will not be “following” you. Sounds creepy.

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Forgot to mention – there’s been an update.

My accompanying spreadsheet file is on the page now:

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Rising of the lights: lights is an old word for lungs, so this is lung disease, perhaps croup.

Teeth: not tooth decay, but an infant who died at an age when they were teething. Most likely they had an infectious disease.

Evil: not a curse, but king’s evil or scrofula, a form of tuberculosis.

Childbed: childbed fever, a microbial infection caught shortly after giving birth, sometimes spread by the infected hands of midwives.

Planet struck: a sudden and severe affliction attributed to astrology.

Overlaid: this means suffocation of a baby by its mother. While this may have been an accident when a sleeping mother rolled over onto her baby, it might also have been deliberate, killing an unwanted child. Infanticide by these means could not be proven.

Suddenly: this could be how a heart attack or stroke was recorded.

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