Mortality trends (non-pandemic)

I’ve actually considered it, especially if winters get milder and/or more harsh

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Author

Mary Pat Campbell, FSA, MAAA

Description

In this report, we consider high-level results from provisional mortality data released from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for 2021, including looking at changes by sex and age group. There are multiple measures for mortality that can be used in investigating trends. In this paper, we will be using crude death rates, age-adjusted death rates, and period life expectancy.

Report

2021 Provisional U.S. Population Mortality Key Observations

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Sorry, didn’t obligate today, will atone by listening to “blogcast.”

Awesome graph of crude mortality rising while age-adjusted mortality dropping.
BOOMERS!

It was very clear, should be easy for a non-actuary to follow along. Thank you.
I will not be “following” you. Sounds creepy.

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OBEY

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Forgot to mention – there’s been an update.

My accompanying spreadsheet file is on the page now:

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Historical…

Rising of the lights: lights is an old word for lungs, so this is lung disease, perhaps croup.

Teeth: not tooth decay, but an infant who died at an age when they were teething. Most likely they had an infectious disease.

Evil: not a curse, but king’s evil or scrofula, a form of tuberculosis.

Childbed: childbed fever, a microbial infection caught shortly after giving birth, sometimes spread by the infected hands of midwives.

Planet struck: a sudden and severe affliction attributed to astrology.

Overlaid: this means suffocation of a baby by its mother. While this may have been an accident when a sleeping mother rolled over onto her baby, it might also have been deliberate, killing an unwanted child. Infanticide by these means could not be proven.

Suddenly: this could be how a heart attack or stroke was recorded.

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https://twitter.com/nachristakis/status/1597353551453474817?s=12

Key Points

Question Is the incidence of organ donation and transplants higher during major US motorcycle rallies?

Findings In this cross-sectional study of 10 798 organ donors and 35 329 recipients of these organs from a national transplant registry from 2005 to 2021, there were 21% more organ donors and 26% more transplant recipients per day during motorcycle rallies in regions near those rallies compared with the 4 weeks before and after the rallies.

Meaning While safety measures to minimize morbidity and mortality during motorcycle rallies should be prioritized, this study showed the downstream association of these events with organ donation and transplants.

the graphs:

dangit, I forgot to add the spreadsheet. I have to go update.

do we know what drugs people OD on?

Yes, it’s mainly fentanyl. (now).

Here’s a good dashboard from the SOA:

https://tableau.soa.org/t/soa-public/views/USPop2020-Full/DBOpioids?%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y

Alcohol poisoning is a different code, but there is a problem with alcohol-related deaths as well:

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so we don’t know if the OD is caused by more drugs being laced or more people doing drugs or people doing more drugs? or do we?

last Movember post

First animated gif:
Prostate Cancer 1999-2021 by state

Second animated gif:
Prostate Cancer 1999-2021 non-hispanic white males by state

Race/ethnic age-adjusted death rate trend for prostate cancer

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yay I’m low-risk!

Who knows, you may have one of those genes for early onset, aggressive prostate cancer!

(maybe even one of those we already know about)

don’t matter, I’m requesting a discount on my premium

Let us know how that goes for you

Heat & cold deaths

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Starting to look at the 2022 trend, post-COVID