Mortality trends (non-pandemic)

Well, kind of non-pandemic

I’ve updated my Chicago homicide spreadsheet:

The data source is

Here is the time series, 2011-Nov 2020, with 12-month moving average

The “2012 Maximum” is in reference to the 12-month rolling average, right?

Let me just say, that’s the best domain name (that actually went to something useful) I’ve seen in a while.


I did a blog post update here:

The third line, the dotted line, was a level from the 2012 trend peak. I arbitrarily chose that mark to compare the 12-month moving average against, to see if homicides were back at 2012 levels. You can see that the trend achieved that in January 2020. And you can see what happened after that.

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Senatorial deaths

Traffic fatalities –

Because numbers were up for so many categories, let me focus on where it went down:

  • large truck involved: decreased 2%
  • down in NHTSA regions 1, 9, 10 – region 9 down the most, 11%, and that’s California/Arizona/Hawaii/Pacific territories
  • Asian/Pacific Islanders – down 29% (probably related to Region 9 being down the most)

Here is the bad news (where the increases were big):

Crash factors and demographics reviewed by NHTSA that showed the largest increases in 2020 as compared to 2019 included:

  • non-Hispanic Black people (up 23%);
  • occupant ejection (up 20%);
  • unrestrained occupants of passenger vehicles (up 15%);
  • on urban interstates (up 15%);
  • on urban local/collector roads (up 12%);
  • in speeding-related crashes (up 11%);
  • on rural local/collector roads (up 11%);
  • during nighttime (up 11%);
  • during the weekend (up 9%);
  • in rollover crashes (up 9%);
  • in single-vehicle crashes (up 9%) and;
  • in police-reported alcohol involvement crashes (up 9%).

More links:

This last link - PDF of June 2021 report - really digs into some of the features of increased fatalities (including pedestrian), and we’d got increased drug-involvement for 2020Q2 & Q3; lower seatbelt use/higher % of ejections; and worse injuries per crash.

That figure shows increase in severity of injuries in crashes.

Lots of stats in the two reports, including breakout by drug use.

on the traffic deaths reports:


If you’re a member of SIR, you can sign up for the Life/Health roundtable for this Thursday, June 24, 1-2pm ET

Some portion of the meeting will be me talking about non-COVID excess mortality… I will be “audibling” some of the above material, because I’m only going to distribute about 6 slides ahead of time. Also, I was hoping the SOA would publish something this week, but I think it’s going to be July when they do their next update.

NAIC deferred mortality data collection last year due to COVID. This year they want to collect for two years (to make up for missing a year). If they don’t collect for two years now, what would the impact be?

I’m thinking there will be questions re: valuation tables.

An argument will be made that the COVID experience should not be included for reserving purposes (but should be used to check against RBC factors).

Did a thread on the SOA’s new U.S. mortality report:

This is the SOA report:

Period v cohort life expectancy, plus a little comparison against Spanish flu pandemic.

I really wish I had better mortality stats for 1918, but I only have CDC stuff going back to 1933… older data are a bit suspect

I do have some Social Security research that reaches back to 1900, but not really enough to do good comparisons

In upcoming posts, I’m going to be walking through the main non-COVID causes of death, and see what they did in 2020.

Here is a graph I just made, to make distinctions between four major death stats you may hear – I used 2019 as my example year:

I’m going to do 1999 in a moment.


Here’s my blog post:

and here’s 1999:

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As we expected, drug overdose deaths were waaaay up for 2020

Drug overdose deaths rose by close to 30% in the United States in 2020, hitting the highest number ever recorded, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Wednesday.


Have a graph:

and I can’t believe it took me this long to figure this out, but here’s my CDC WONDER query:
and the page with the recent results: