# Mortality trends (non-pandemic) **URL:** \ **Category:** Life Insurance\ **Created:** [December 3, 2020, 9:38pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388 "2020-12-03T21:38:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 5:17pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/404 "2024-02-28T17:17:55Z")
I think that would present better if it were shown one line at a time, chronologically. And, that boomer years are the cause of the drop in percentage differences from peak of 40-44. Maybe include lives by age group separately? ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 5:47pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/405 "2024-02-28T17:47:26Z")
Yeah, I can show this a few different ways. Let’s try it this way: ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/3/5/35375ca0db932a61e24585f7eb3329716fa4a37f.png) I could remove 2019 (it’s 0% of course), and I could remove 2018 as well (it’s just for contrast, to show the “normal” amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in death rates for an age grouping – +/- 1% change year-to-year is pretty common, but 10% change is huge.) Stripping out 2018 & 2019 ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/4/a/4ac3a51e67996342a79dfe407e6d464a683ffcd6.png) ---
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 5:52pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/406 "2024-02-28T17:52:13Z")
Yuck! Just saying that during the presentation, the lines could fade in and out chronologically. Some appropriate background music could really sell it. “Get me Ludwig Goransson on the phone!” ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 5:58pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/407 "2024-02-28T17:58:26Z")
I do want to focus on the 2023 results… can make the others fade out as new ones come in: ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/5/0/503162309ce60c216108e22ee9b56b61abead577.png) ---
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 6:03pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/408 "2024-02-28T18:03:41Z")
Why are the 2023 differences all over the place? No rhyme or reason? Return to normal randomnesscy? Vaccination rate differences? Data issues? I’m not going to Iowa to find out, so… ---
**Author:** ![knoath](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/knoath/32/65607_2.png) [@knoath](https://community.goactuary.com/u/knoath)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 6:06pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/409 "2024-02-28T18:06:27Z")
You could also do an animated chart with a single line. Start from 2019 with the flat line and show snapshots every quarter (or month if available) so that it takes around two seconds for each year to pass. If there’s too much volatility you could do a rolling 12 months. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/the_polymath/32/83081_2.png) [@The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/u/The_Polymath)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 6:10pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/410 "2024-02-28T18:10:00Z")
One of the drivers will be people that had health issues under control until 2020 (Pandemic), and they basically were not able to get consistent treatment during the last few years. Those health issues got a lot more serious and they died. Thats similar to what we are seeing in the UK. Excess mortality is still a bit higher vs pre-2019 trends. ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 6:14pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/411 "2024-02-28T18:14:44Z")
I have a lot of slides to update, but if I’m going to animate one slide, that may be the one. The reason for the differences… well, there’s the major causes of death, and what’s going on with them, and it doesn’t necessarily take a lot to move the needle at younger ages. In particular, external causes of death, and drug overdoses and motor vehicle accident deaths, have had a huge increase over the last few years, and haven’t come down that much. Those have a particular age distribution that don’t affect older people so much. Older people have been affected more by COVID (of course) but also other natural causes of death. ---
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2024, 6:33pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/412 "2024-02-28T18:33:19Z")
> [@meep](#): > > In particular, external causes of death, and drug overdoses and motor vehicle accident deaths, have had a huge increase over the last few years, and haven’t come down that much. Those have a particular age distribution that don’t affect older people so much. Thanks! Would it be to simplistic to conclude that without the drug overdose and MV accident increases, difference to 2019 might be around 5%? ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2024, 11:38am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/413 "2024-03-17T11:38:33Z")
This post (not mine) has a few things in it, including birth seasonality. But just wanted to share for the visualizations of the ICD chapters over ages: > **[Many great things you missed this year](https://www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/20-so-many-great-things-you-missed)** > > This week: Birth seasonality, causes of death across the lifespan, progress against HIV/AIDS & cystic fibrosis, very rare infectious form of Alzheimer’s, improvements in cholesterol, and more. ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/c/8/c8517d5196a1c5f96a284f88b85ff7761f53d02a.png) The “special codes” on the bottom is almost all COVID deaths, though some of it is “vaping syndrome”, whatever that is. There’s a github: > **[misc/cause-of-death-lifespan at main · saloni-nd/misc](https://github.com/saloni-nd/misc/tree/main/cause-of-death-lifespan)** > > main/cause-of-death-lifespan ---
**Author:** ![BigBlackBen](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/bigblackben/32/973_2.png) [@BigBlackBen](https://community.goactuary.com/u/BigBlackBen)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2024, 6:11pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/414 "2024-03-17T18:11:14Z")
Blood disorder is interesting… guess I gotta watch out for those as I age Edit: Never mind I am blind. The colors for blood disorder and cardiovascular disease look similar on my tiny phone screen ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2024, 9:05am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/415 "2024-03-18T09:05:08Z")
These are the ICD chapters, which are international, so these chapters have been chosen… internationally. Some are more important as causes of disease/death elsewhere. I see she decided to order these in ABC order, which is a choice. I would make other choices myself (I mean, I obviously have), and I prefer showing the total deaths and not merely the percentage of deaths. ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2024, 10:46am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/416 "2024-03-21T10:46:30Z")
colorectal cancer > **[Colorectal Cancer: Top Cancer With Concerning Trend in Younger Ages](https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/colorectal-cancer-top-cancer-with)** > > Get screened! Something going on with early-onset CRC ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/images/transparent.png) (ignore 2021 and old ages, as per earlier) under age 45 has something going on, though ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/images/transparent.png) ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/images/transparent.png) (it’s level/going down for ages 15-24) > **[Early-onset colorectal cancer: A review of current knowledge](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10011966/)** > > Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most prevalent malignancies worldwide. Although most prevalent among older people, its incidence above 50 years old has been decreasing globally in the last decades, probably as a result of better screening. ... # Early-onset colorectal cancer: A review of current knowledge Feb 2023 abstract: > ## Abstract > > Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most prevalent malignancies worldwide. Although most prevalent among older people, its incidence above 50 years old has been decreasing globally in the last decades, probably as a result of better screening. Paradoxically, its incidence in patients below 50 years old [early-onset CRC (EO-CRC)] has been increasing, for reasons not yet fully understood. EO-CRC’s increasing incidence is genre independent but shows racial disparities and has been described to occur worldwide. It follows a birth-cohort effect which probably reflects a change in exposure to CRC risk factors. Its incidence is predicted to double until 2030, which makes EO-CRC a serious public health issue. Both modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors have been identified - some are potential targets for preventive measures. EO-CRC is often diagnosed at advanced stages and histological features associated with poor prognosis have been described. EO-CRC presents some distinctive features: Microsatellite in-stability is common, but another subtype of tumours, both microsatellite and chromosome stable also seems relevant. There are no age-specific treatment protocols and studies on EO-CRC survival rates have shown conflicting data. Due to the higher germline pathological mutations found in EO-CRC patients, an accurate genetic risk evaluation should be performed. In this review, we summarize the current evidence on epidemiological, clinical, histopathological and molecular features of EO-CRC and discuss the contribution of genetics and lifestyle risk factors. We further comment on screening strategies and specific dimensions to consider when dealing with a younger cancer patient. ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2024, 9:23pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/417 "2024-03-29T21:23:47Z")
On falls > **[RIP Joe Lieberman -- A Reminder that Falls are Dangerous to Seniors](https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/rip-joe-lieberman-a-reminder-that)** > > There will be increasing reminders over the next two decades, I'm sure ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2024, 10:19pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/418 "2024-04-13T22:19:26Z")
I like using the death of prominent people to talk about mortality trends > **[OJ Simpson Dead: Let's Review Racial Gap in Prostate Cancer Mortality](https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/oj-simpson-dead-lets-review-racial)** > > Even if you can't say anything nice, you can always look at mortality trends > I think this is a positive to come out of a notorious person’s death. We all die of something, and if somebody with a sordid past dies of something common that needs more awareness, what a great opportunity to raise that awareness. ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/5/b/5bdcfccf2be5d987e9997a0a20e711756e6a5aa3.png) ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/3/3/335cba7edb7f95a7177b6ac73828392ae3c57d12.png) ---
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 4:04am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/419 "2024-04-14T04:04:51Z")
So, prostate cancer can do good! ---
**Author:** ![The\_President](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/the_president/32/70075_2.png) [@The\_President](https://community.goactuary.com/u/The_President)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 12:20pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/420 "2024-04-14T12:20:49Z")
MO-J-vember this fall? ---
**Author:** ![DeepPurple](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/deeppurple/32/1551_2.png) [@DeepPurple](https://community.goactuary.com/u/DeepPurple)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2024, 9:05pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/421 "2024-04-17T21:05:51Z")
I don’t know where else to post this, but I found this on the internet and it is at least somewhat about mortality, and I found it humorous. ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/0/6/06438a9b4dc7593f3081d18d75b9d945a38f93ae.jpeg) Not a single heart ailment, and more people died of worms (27) than murder (7) and suicide (15) combined. ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2024, 3:48am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/422 "2024-04-18T03:48:21Z")
related: > **[Happy Thanksgiving 2022! Deciphering Historical Death and Actuarial Humor Books](https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/happy-thanksgiving-2022-deciphering)** > > Yes, actuarial humor does exist Oh, and there are heart ailments in there. They just have different names. there is one labeled “Suddenly” – I’m guessing quite a few of those are heart attacks and similar acute heart problems. ---
**Author:** ![BigBlackBen](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/bigblackben/32/973_2.png) [@BigBlackBen](https://community.goactuary.com/u/BigBlackBen)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2024, 11:07pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/423 "2024-04-19T23:07:44Z")
Teeth were really on a tear back then [Previous page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388.md?page=20) [Next page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388.md?page=22)