# Mortality trends (non-pandemic) **URL:** \ **Category:** Life Insurance\ **Created:** [December 3, 2020, 9:38pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388 "2020-12-03T21:38:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2020, 9:38pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/1 "2020-12-03T21:38:47Z")
Well, kind of non-pandemic I’ve updated my Chicago homicide spreadsheet: > **[Dropbox](https://www.dropbox.com/s/hvx8xmzn5byjbbn/Chicago%20Homicides%20v3.0.xlsx?dl=0)** The data source is [https://heyjackass.com/](https://heyjackass.com/) Here is the time series, 2011-Nov 2020, with 12-month moving average ![Chicago homicide 2011-Nov 2020 raw and trend](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/2X/e/e5a3941591cec642758b4e11a843ed93ae2e6bbd.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![Vorian\_Atreides](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/vorian_atreides/32/65623_2.png) [@Vorian\_Atreides](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Vorian_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2020, 9:44pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/2 "2020-12-03T21:44:01Z")
The “2012 Maximum” is in reference to the 12-month rolling average, right? ---
**Author:** ![jraven](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/jraven/32/229_2.png) [@jraven](https://community.goactuary.com/u/jraven)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2020, 10:45pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/3 "2020-12-03T22:45:04Z")
> [@meep](#): > > The data source is [https://heyjackass.com/](https://heyjackass.com/) Let me just say, that’s the best domain name (that actually went to something useful) I’ve seen in a while. ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2020, 11:07pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/4 "2020-12-03T23:07:12Z")
Yes. I did a blog post update here: > **[Chicago Homicides Quick-Take: 2020 is as Bad as 2016, Just More Concentrated](https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/chicago-homicides-quick-take-2020)** > > No happy news here. > The third line, the dotted line, was a level from the 2012 trend peak. I arbitrarily chose that mark to compare the 12-month moving average against, to see if homicides were back at 2012 levels. You can see that the trend achieved that in January 2020. And you can see what happened after that. ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2021, 11:06pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/5 "2021-01-21T23:06:44Z")
> **[Preemies may have greater risk of premature death as adults, study suggests |...](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/20/health/premature-babies-early-death-health-risks-wellness/index.html?utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twCNN&utm_content=2021-01-21T07%3A31%3A03)** > > What are the long-term health risks of being born too early? New research that looked at more than 6 million people found that individuals born preterm are at a modestly greater risk of dying prematurely in adulthood when compared to those born after... ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2021, 11:25pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/6 "2021-02-08T23:25:07Z")
Senatorial deaths > **[Mortality with Meep: On The Congressional Body of Old Folks and Deaths in Office](https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/mortality-with-meep-on-the-congressional)** > > (pssst, I mean the Senate) ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2021, 9:17am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/7 "2021-02-09T09:17:00Z")
[https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/02/07/national/social-issues/suicides-rise-japan-pandemic/](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/02/07/national/social-issues/suicides-rise-japan-pandemic/) ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2021, 6:12pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/8 "2021-05-25T18:12:35Z")
[https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/20/over-the-past-century-african-american-life-expectancy-and-education-levels-have-soared?utm\_campaign=data-newsletter&utm\_medium=newsletter&utm\_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/20/over-the-past-century-african-american-life-expectancy-and-education-levels-have-soared?utm_campaign=data-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud) ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/2X/e/e911ef51785d481b1a72bb95e39c8ac2b632517d.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2021, 9:16am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/9 "2021-06-09T09:16:37Z")
Traffic fatalities – [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813118](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813118) Because numbers were up for so many categories, let me focus on where it went down: - large truck involved: decreased 2% - down in NHTSA regions 1, 9, 10 – region 9 down the most, 11%, and that’s California/Arizona/Hawaii/Pacific territories - Asian/Pacific Islanders – down 29% (probably related to Region 9 being down the most) Here is the bad news (where the increases were big): > **Crash factors and demographics reviewed by NHTSA that showed the largest increases in 2020 as compared to 2019 included:** > > - non-Hispanic Black people (up 23%); > - occupant ejection (up 20%); > - unrestrained occupants of passenger vehicles (up 15%); > - on urban interstates (up 15%); > - on urban local/collector roads (up 12%); > - in speeding-related crashes (up 11%); > - on rural local/collector roads (up 11%); > - during nighttime (up 11%); > - during the weekend (up 9%); > - in rollover crashes (up 9%); > - in single-vehicle crashes (up 9%) and; > - in police-reported alcohol involvement crashes (up 9%). More links: [https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2020-fatality-data-show-increased-traffic-fatalities-during-pandemic](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2020-fatality-data-show-increased-traffic-fatalities-during-pandemic) [https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2021-06/Update\_Traffic%20Safety%20During%20COVID-19\_4thQtr-060121-web.pdf](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2021-06/Update_Traffic%20Safety%20During%20COVID-19_4thQtr-060121-web.pdf) This last link - PDF of June 2021 report - really digs into some of the features of increased fatalities (including pedestrian), and we’d got increased drug-involvement for 2020Q2 & Q3; lower seatbelt use/higher % of ejections; and worse injuries per crash. ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/2X/e/ec8f4b262c76062251e366f562fc03f5c1e157e1.png) That figure shows increase in severity of injuries in crashes. Lots of stats in the two reports, including breakout by drug use. ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2021, 1:40pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/10 "2021-06-12T13:40:29Z")
on the traffic deaths reports: [![](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/6/f/6fdbdfa51432f55bca8dc6eb0fd1eb0e28a94b22.jpeg "Mortality with Meep - Increased U.S. Traffic Deaths in 2020") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6yjwwynP1M) ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2021, 10:51am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/11 "2021-06-20T10:51:06Z")
[https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-18/young-american-adults-are-dying-and-not-just-from-covid](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-18/young-american-adults-are-dying-and-not-just-from-covid) ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/2X/2/26c0bdb410f6e4ac3883396fbcc8e21f33b99349.png) ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/2X/e/ee91724ad994c70a10b22be6fa47189ab6b02430.png) ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/2X/b/bf3e326254095c33d78f0591f312da468b582940.png) ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2021, 1:10pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/12 "2021-06-21T13:10:27Z")
If you’re a member of SIR, you can sign up for the Life/Health roundtable for this Thursday, June 24, 1-2pm ET > **[SIR Competitive Intelligence Life & Health Roundtable](https://www.sirnet.org//SIR/Events/Webinars/Webinar-Registration.aspx?EventKey=CICALL5)** Some portion of the meeting will be me talking about non-COVID excess mortality… I will be “audibling” some of the above material, because I’m only going to distribute about 6 slides ahead of time. Also, I was hoping the SOA would publish something this week, but I think it’s going to be July when they do their next update. ---
**Author:** ![Hip\_tiger](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/hip_tiger/32/447_2.png) [@Hip\_tiger](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Hip_tiger)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2021, 6:29pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/13 "2021-06-24T18:29:33Z")
NAIC deferred mortality data collection last year due to COVID. This year they want to collect for two years (to make up for missing a year). If they don’t collect for two years now, what would the impact be? ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2021, 6:55pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/14 "2021-06-24T18:55:28Z")
I’m thinking there will be questions re: valuation tables. An argument will be made that the COVID experience should not be included for reserving purposes (but should be used to check against RBC factors). ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2021, 7:50pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/15 "2021-06-24T19:50:34Z")
Did a thread on the SOA’s new U.S. mortality report: > **[Thread by @meepbobeep on Thread Reader App](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1408050784760217602.html)** > > Thread by @meepbobeep: June 2021 update of U.S. Population Mortality Observations Preview of 2020 Experience -- now out from @SOActuaries soa.org/globalassets/a… A few notes to follow Table 1 on page 11: 2020 U.S. ...… This is the SOA report: > **[us-population-observations-july-2021-update.pdf](https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2021/us-population-observations-july-2021-update.pdf)** > > 678.01 KB ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2021, 12:38pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/16 "2021-06-30T12:38:15Z")
Period v cohort life expectancy, plus a little comparison against Spanish flu pandemic. ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/2X/5/5b272a8d8e2116ae631d1144bd843d7f048f016a.png) I really wish I had better mortality stats for 1918, but I only have CDC stuff going back to 1933… older data are a bit suspect > **[Mortality with Meep: U.S. Life Expectancy Fell 2.4% in 2020, and Death Rates...](https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/mortality-with-meep-us-life-expectancy)** > > These are very bad. I do have some Social Security research that reaches back to 1900, but not really enough to do good comparisons In upcoming posts, I’m going to be walking through the main non-COVID causes of death, and see what they did in 2020. ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/2X/b/bdf82001f1bcf635a66592f8b8d10f0dba37a887.png) ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2021, 6:07pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/17 "2021-07-07T18:07:55Z")
Here is a graph I just made, to make distinctions between four major death stats you may hear – I used 2019 as my example year: ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/2X/6/6cc34bd1defc2b7b3038d64064f2afd99e895c40.png) I’m going to do 1999 in a moment. ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2021, 8:32pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/18 "2021-07-07T20:32:32Z")
Here’s my blog post: > **[Mortality Basics with Meep: Median, Mode, and Mean Age at Death and Life...](https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/mortality-basics-with-meep-median)** > > Learn a little statistics and here’s 1999: ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/2X/f/f50e07ad70fdcc2f2625df105e79af22f177dfdb.png) ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2021, 4:00pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/19 "2021-07-14T16:00:06Z")
As we expected, drug overdose deaths were waaaay up for 2020 > **[Drug overdose deaths hit highest number ever recorded, CDC data shows | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/14/health/drug-overdose-deaths-2020/index.html)** > > Drug overdose deaths rose by close to 30% in the US in 2020, hitting the highest number ever recorded, the CDC reported Wednesday. > Drug overdose deaths rose by close to 30% in the United States in 2020, hitting the highest number ever recorded, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Wednesday. YEEEEESH ---
**Author:** ![meep](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/meep/32/44_2.png) [@meep](https://community.goactuary.com/u/meep)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2021, 1:09am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388/20 "2021-07-15T01:09:56Z")
Have a graph: ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/2X/f/ff783c7c358c6c55ac64974468bb5147f9016135.png) and I can’t believe it took me this long to figure this out, but here’s my CDC WONDER query: > **[Saved Request: Underlying Cause of Death, 1999-2020, D185F421](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D185F421)** and the page with the recent results: > **[Products - Vital Statistics Rapid Release - Provisional Drug Overdose Data](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm)** > > National and state-level provisional drug overdose deaths from the National Vital Statistics System > > Data presented in this visualization include national and state-level death counts, percentage changes in provisional drug overdose deaths, and... > **[Mortality with Meep: Huge Increase in Death by Drug Overdose in 2020](https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/mortality-with-meep-huge-increase)** > > There were also huge increases in drug overdose deaths in 2016 and 2002 [Next page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/mortality-trends-non-pandemic/1388.md?page=2)