Moody's Rate

Professional Actuarial Topics Life Insurance
21

December 2020 2.72

22

January 2021 2.85

23

Iā€™m really not liking the look of my chart

image

24

Arenā€™t you a bit of a graph guru? I bet you could do something with it.

25

Not in Google Sheets, alas.

I do other things in Excel.

26

February 2021
3.05

27

March 2021
3.38

28

FWIW, when I said ā€œI donā€™t like the look of my chartā€, I mainly meant ā€œthat is a nasty-looking trendā€

29

April 2021
3.25

30

May 2021
3.28

1 Like
31

June 2021
3.11

Big drop this timeā€¦

32

Some stats on monthly changes:

Change stats Month-over-month change in bps Month-over-month change, percentage
min -94 -12.3%
10th percentile -23 -3.4%
25th percentile -14 -2.1%
50th percentile -3 -0.4%
75th percentile 9 1.4%
90th percentile 21 3.0%
max 106 16.3%

the May-June 2021 change was a 17 bps drop, or a 5.2% decrease.

Thatā€™s 18th percentile for bp change and 3rd percentile for percentage change

33

Thanks. Third percentile is definitely ā€œlargeā€ in terms of percentage decrease. How does that work out in terms of absolute month-over-month change?

34

Okay, let me add a column to the spreadsheetā€¦

reminder: spreadsheet link

Change stats Month-over-month change in bps Month-over-month change, percentage Month-over-month change in bps ABSOLUTE VALUE Month-over-month change, percentage, ABSOLUTE VALUE
min -94 -12.3% 0 0.0%
10th percentile -23 -3.4% 2 0.2%
25th percentile -14 -2.1% 5 0.8%
50th percentile -3 -0.4% 11 1.8%
75th percentile 9 1.4% 19 2.9%
90th percentile 21 3.0% 32 4.6%
max 106 16.3% 106 16.3%

Result:
the absolute-bp-change for May-June 2021 was 69th percentile
the absolute-percentage change was 94th percentile

1 Like
35

Thanks much. :slight_smile:

36

Yeah, GPT is pretty much broken now, innit? ā€œHow would you like this contract to fail? Pay too little premium and it lapses like an overpriced term contract, or pay more, but get a bunch of it back via force-outs and it still lapses like an overpriced term contract? Itā€™s up to you, thatā€™s what makes it great!ā€

37

It doesnā€™t have to lapse. You can still pay premiums to keep it inforce [(f)(6)], but they can get expensive.

38

Well yes, I was oversimplifying. :slight_smile:

39

July 2021
2.91

40

the absolute-bp-change for June-July 2021 was 75th percentile
the absolute-percentage change was 96th percentile