Anyone else ever go to 538’s Riddler or Riddler Express? I enjoy some of the challenges though most of them i just skip because i haven’t the foggiest idea how to solve. That was not the case for last friday’s riddler express.

As an aside, does GoActuary support LaTex and the [spoiler][/spoiler] tag formatting?

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Is this straightforward? Can’t you just ignore all the instances where you don’t win? Because there are two conditions for winning. You either successfully land three conservative throws, or you land one aggressive throw. So, then you work out the 8 combinations where you win, then take the maximum probability from those 8 scenarios. Is it that simple? It’s been a while since exam P and even longer since combinatorics in college, so I’m rusty. Also I believe the highest probability of a win is 51.2%