# Israel - Hamas War October 2023 **URL:** \ **Category:** Political Topics\ **Created:** [October 7, 2023, 10:49pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474 "2023-10-07T22:49:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 156
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 6:13pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3181 "2024-09-05T18:13:19Z")
> [@Fish\_Actuary](#): > > If the aid agency said hey this is where we’re going to be and how, it seems like there are options to deal with this with more caution rather than nuking everyone who might have a gun. Wait, they used nukes? Also, they didn’t kill people who _might_ have guns, as I understand it. They killed people who _did_ have guns, right? ---
**Author:** ![SteveGrondin](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/stevegrondin/32/3257_2.png) [@SteveGrondin](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SteveGrondin)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 6:17pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3182 "2024-09-05T18:17:47Z")
> [@The\_Polymath](#): > > As I have posted previously, not even Pol Pot of the Khmer Rouge killed people at this rate Um, quick google shows 500K a year in the Cambodian genocide (1975-1979), so not right. ---
**Author:** ![Fish\_Actuary](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/f/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Fish\_Actuary](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Fish_Actuary)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 6:18pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3183 "2024-09-05T18:18:52Z")
They killed guys who were guarding an aid convoy they knew about it because some of the guys unexpectedly had guns. I called it nuking because it sounds like they used a bomb to blow the vehicle up. It seems like if they were concerned about the guns and were in contact with the convoy, they could have told them to drop the guns rather than just blowing them all up. Apparently that would have been inconvenient. ---
**Author:** ![The\_President](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/the_president/32/70075_2.png) [@The\_President](https://community.goactuary.com/u/The_President)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 6:18pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3184 "2024-09-05T18:18:56Z")
> [@twig93](#): > > You may or may not be innocent, but my objective wasn’t to cause your death, it was to rescue my friends and family. My point is that we become comfortable in this reasoning, and then apply that way too broadly. Could those hostages be returned through a cease fire agreement, and what are the terms? Does that need to happen today, or could casualties be avoided if we wait for a better time? We obviously don’t have good insights into all of these, but I think it is an extremely flawed position to assume that 100% of the innocent Palestinian lives lost to rescue one hostage can always be justified simply because of the situation. Maybe you disagree with that…but then I would ask, if the entire moral objection is removed due to a circumstance, what is left to prevent the slippery slope to extermination? You can move that arbitrary line as far in that direction as you want - you have literally set no moral boundary to prevent that. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/the_polymath/32/83081_2.png) [@The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/u/The_Polymath)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 6:24pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3185 "2024-09-05T18:24:34Z")
Range is 1.2M to 2.8M over 5 years Over 5Y, you get 240,000 - 560,000 per year. Thats 20,000 to 47,000 per month. Gaza is 23,000 per month. These are horrific numbers from an actual genocide that we are now comparing Gaza to. > **[The Boundaries of Genocide: Quantifying the Uncertainty of the Death Toll...](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4562795/)** > > Estimates of excess deaths under Pol Pot's rule of Cambodia (1975-79) range from under one million to over three million. The more plausible among those, methodologically, still vary from one to two million deaths, but this range of independent ... ---
**Author:** ![R\_Daneel\_Olivaw](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/r_daneel_olivaw/32/420_2.png) [@R\_Daneel\_Olivaw](https://community.goactuary.com/u/R_Daneel_Olivaw)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 6:34pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3186 "2024-09-05T18:34:29Z")
You may as well stop twig. TP isn’t going to admit that you have a point no matter how well you make it. Same way Poly won’t admit that the lancet study methodology is somewhat iffy and putting the onus for all the deaths resulting from the conflict on Israel is heinously biased. No point yelling into the wind. ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 6:37pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3187 "2024-09-05T18:37:10Z")
> [@Fish\_Actuary](#): > > I called it nuking Considering that Israel is a nuclear power that seems like needlessly confusing and possibly inflammatory language. “Bombing” would be appropriate if they used non-nuclear bombs. ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 6:44pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3188 "2024-09-05T18:44:22Z")
> [@The\_President](#): > > I think it is an extremely flawed position to assume that 100% of the innocent Palestinian lives lost to rescue one hostage can always be justified simply because of the situation. No, and that is not the position I was advancing. A) 100% chance of rescuing the hostage with no risk to your side and kill 100 innocent civilians on the other side. B) 50% chance of rescuing the hostage with 10% chance of deaths on your side and kill 10 innocent civilians on the other side. C) 10% chance of rescuing the hostage with 50% chance of deaths on your side and kill 0 innocent civilians on the other side. Reasonable people could disagree on the appropriate course of action while still feeling that the hostage-takers are ultimately to blame for any deaths that do occur. ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 6:48pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3189 "2024-09-05T18:48:46Z")
> [@The\_Polymath](#): > > Gaza is 23,000 per month. Uh, what? Are we talking about people killed? Palestinians are saying 40,000 total (since October 2023), which includes a lot of militants. IDF is saying I think 14,000 total. No one, not even Gazans are saying 23,000 a month. ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 6:51pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3190 "2024-09-05T18:51:13Z")
True ---
**Author:** ![SteveGrondin](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/stevegrondin/32/3257_2.png) [@SteveGrondin](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SteveGrondin)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 6:53pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3191 "2024-09-05T18:53:46Z")
So clicking thru your link gives the time as " From April 1975 to January 1979, the government of Cambodia was officially known as _Democratic Kampuchea_ . Today, many people in Cambodia remember its exact duration, “three years, eight months, and twenty days,” and are more likely to refer to this tragic period as “during Pol Pot”—the name taken by its actual leader, who died in 1998." So not sure where you are getting 5 years from. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/the_polymath/32/83081_2.png) [@The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/u/The_Polymath)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 6:54pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3192 "2024-09-05T18:54:14Z")
From the Lancet: 186,000 / c8 months = 23,000 per month > [@](#): > > In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death[9](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext#) to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2 375 259, this would translate to 7·9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip. A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28 000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58 260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85 750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024.[10](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext#) ---
**Author:** ![The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/the_polymath/32/83081_2.png) [@The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/u/The_Polymath)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 7:06pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3193 "2024-09-05T19:06:31Z")
From his model design. He approximated the distributions and their correlations to 5Y (vs 3y8m) Obviously this is a pretty wide guesstimate (from the 95%CI Interval) due the assumptions involved. > [@](#): > > To simplify this complex issue, I followed the common practices in population forecasting summarized by [Lee (1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4562795/#R31):165). I took most care in specifying temporal correlations between 5-year intervals, or less when political events suggested discontinuities within 5-year periods. ---
**Author:** ![FormerActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/f/eada6e/32.png) [@FormerActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/u/FormerActuary)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 7:23pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3194 "2024-09-05T19:23:15Z")
You do know that Lancet’s past estimates of deaths in other areas have been widely panned for being inaccurate, and almost nobody accepts them, right? ---
**Author:** ![funkingded](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/funkingded/32/83398_2.png) [@funkingded](https://community.goactuary.com/u/funkingded)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 8:02pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3195 "2024-09-05T20:02:44Z")
To get clarity on some of these arguments I want to restate them without the surrounding rhetoric. - Legitimate targets include: Weapons caches, groups of opposition combatants, opposition leadership, armed opposition people no matter what task they are performing. - The death of innocents is acceptable if the goal is a legitimate target. - The incidental destruction of infrastructure is acceptable during the conduct of a campaign. - Some innocents will be killed incidentally/accidentally during the conduct of a campaign. A big open ended question for this conversation is how do we define hostages, prisoners, refugees within a zone of control, refugees outside a zone of control. ---
**Author:** ![R\_Daneel\_Olivaw](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/r_daneel_olivaw/32/420_2.png) [@R\_Daneel\_Olivaw](https://community.goactuary.com/u/R_Daneel_Olivaw)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 8:14pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3196 "2024-09-05T20:14:24Z")
Generally the acceptable level of civilian deaths and/or infrastructure destruction is proportional to the value of the primary target. Exactly what that proportion should be is not specified in law. ---
**Author:** ![The\_President](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/the_president/32/70075_2.png) [@The\_President](https://community.goactuary.com/u/The_President)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 8:52pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3197 "2024-09-05T20:52:40Z")
You also have D) work towards a cease fire and no on dies and the hostages come home. If “all reasonable people blame any death” on the hostage takers is accurate, everyone would pick A from your list, but I think the fact that there are some pretty strong feelings out there means there are either a lot of unreasonable people “that have a problem” with that option, or the line is quite blurry on what the moral responsibility is in the situation. ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 9:06pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3198 "2024-09-05T21:06:00Z")
> [@The\_President](#): > > If “all reasonable people blame any death” on the hostage takers is accurate I’m really getting tired of your strawmen. ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 9:09pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3199 "2024-09-05T21:09:36Z")
Uh… that’s a projection into the future. It’s not even an estimate of deaths that have already occurred. ---
**Author:** ![SteveGrondin](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/stevegrondin/32/3257_2.png) [@SteveGrondin](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SteveGrondin)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 9:18pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474/3200 "2024-09-05T21:18:21Z")
You are misconstruing model construction techniques with what is actually being estimated. Both from his table headings and this quote: “In spite of the potential limitations, I followed most previous analysts and focused on the PPR death toll, defined as the difference in the estimated number of deaths between prevailing and counterfactual mortality—that is, “excess” mortality— **strictly during the period the PPR was in power**. I also sought to estimate the subset of these excess deaths that could be identified as violent deaths.” (emphasis mine) it seems very clear the deaths are those occurring in the limited period. [Previous page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474.md?page=155) [Next page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/israel-hamas-war-october-2023/8474.md?page=157)