Is inflation back?

That bill had nothing to do with inflation. The name change from Build Back Better to Inflation reduction Act was just PR. The major real change in that law is the change to the Part D program that will make drugs less expensive for Sr’s. The benefit changes to part D will stick through a Republican reconciliation efforts, because they have bipartisan support, but I believe the direct negotiation of drug prices portion of the law is likely to be overturned if Republicans get a shot at passing reconciliation legislation.

The action that could spell real trouble for the economy is if the Federal Reserve lays out interest rates that cripple future investment in the economy and thus future employment. My take on what he is saying is that the biggest problem right now is the wage of labor is going up rapidly. I believe the Fed is aiming to destroy the job market so people have to work for nothing again.

Overalll not seasonally adjusted CPI was down slightly (-0.42% annualized). But that was because of a 6.15% drop in energy. Food and Core both increased (9.5% and 6.4% annualized respectively).

Year/Year not seasonally adjusted was down to only 8.26%.

If we are interested in the political news, not good for the Ds.

However,

It seems that gasoline is about 3% of consumer spending and maybe 30% of the perception of inflation. According to FRED, gasoline prices have fallen every week for the last 13 consecutive weeks. US Regular All Formulations Gas Price (GASREGW) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

inflation news is passe, abortion is what’s driving the votes

All these non-aborted people are really going to drive up spending

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luckily, the aborted people aren’t affected by inflation, so it all evens out

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imagine if the aborted people could vote!

0% and .1% MoM numbers the last 2 months. That annualizes at .6% inflation rate for the next year.

Feels more like deflation with the way the market responded

I’M READY

It’s probably much more than 3% of spending that varies a lot from one month to the next. (So, not including mortgage / rent, medical insurance, income taxes & other benefits withheld from paycheck, car payment, other insurance that’s probably on auto pay, etc.)

So it’s responsible for a lot of the variance in people’s expenditures.

Didn’t Yellen recently say oil/gas/energy is expected to go up this winter. The 0 and .1% numbers the last 2 months are because gas has been dropping consistently. If it goes back up at all it is going to substantially increase inflation.

Agree with this thought. Oil is dropping due to releases from SPR, which is a finite supply, and will need to be replinished at some point.

I didn’t actually read the article where they said Yellen said oil/gas would be going up, so I didn’t see what they said was the reason. That seems reasonable, but I didn’t really thing they were releasing enough from the SPR that it was having that big of an affect on prices.

Eh, we use a little under 20 million barrels a day and Biden had been releasing 1 million barrels a day for 6 months. 5% for 6 months seems like enough to impact prices.

I don’t exactly know how the draw downs work… I assume they’re still selling the oil, just at a slightly lower price? So maybe only a modest impact?

One part of a thing I read goes a little beyond my full understanding, but something about current spot prices being higher than the long term futures, so they’re selling at the current price but still able to buy at a lower price that therefore still boosts domestic production, which also lowers domestic prices…or something like that. I didn’t see any actual numbers though.

I think it is Page One Economics’ supply and demand.
While inflation is page 408, which is a long-term trend caused by increases in the money supply.
When people need to pay for gasoline, but don’t have the extra money it requires, they cut down on something else (nonessentials). Or borrow or steal if all they spend on is essential.

Temporary programs targeting low income groups being introduced in Canada to counter impact of inflation on them.

Already seeing some deflation on the wholesale side in the Producer Price Index. This is month over month not YoY as YoY numbers will not go down until we get past the rapid increase period that took place this spring and early summer.

Biden averts rail strike. Pretty sure the supply chain disruption a rail strike would have cause would have exacerbated inflation concerns