But the Fed can’t do much about food prices. It doesn’t matter what interest rates are, people will buy food.
10 kilo bag of AP flour now going for $18.99 CDN!!! It was $16.99 a couple of months back.
@Echo : Kukt chikkinz went from $8.97 to $9.97 this last week!!! Make sure Daddy stocks up!!!
My local taco joint just increased taco Tuesday, price rocketed up 50%. To $1.50 per taco.
You never got to enjoy $1.25 tacos. Maybe they can only afford to update their price board every few years.
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Good article on why cheap gas in the US is a problem.
Canada CPI for July 2022 was similar to US.
Bank of Canada widely expected to raise Bank Rate a further 0.75% in September which would bring cumulative increases this year to an aggressive 3%.
Not as rosy a forecast in the UK:
When “analysts” from the big banks run a story about where the stock market is headed, isn’t the best bet to assume the opposite of what they are predicting?
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Interesting thoughts here. See s to align more with what I feel rather than what CPI has been saying.
yes deflation!!!
“42% of CPI components are declining from recent highs = deflation,”
This is a stupid conclusion, yes? 42% declining = 58% NOT declining, which means…not deflation? I don’t understand his drawing a conclusion based on a minority of components doing a thing.
I’m wary of inflation expectations being too high in the next year, but nothing in this article actually makes me think it’s true yet. Lot of jargon. Not enough numbers.
Alright, one guy says there is deflation, therefore deflation!
Depends… 42% declining at -5% while 58% increasing at 1% still equals deflation…
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He’s looking at data. I think there is clearly deflation in consumer retail goods. Clearly deflation in fuel prices. Those aren’t really debatable are they? Housing is coming to a screaming halt. I guess to me if you want to talk inflation moving forward I need to know what the catalyst is. I don’t see any increases in money in people’s pockets. I don’t see any shortages getting worse. If there is no catalyst for demand and supply is largely caught up or catching up, where is inflation going to come from?
To me, it means that the “inflation” that happened in the past wasn’t real inflation. Inflation is SUSTAINED increases, not just simple year-over-year. (Caused mainly by an increase in the money supply.
This is a media problem, though. Media don’t know what inflation is, except that it produces eyeballs, which translate to money.
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I use “inflation” to mean an increase in the average price of consumer goods.
The starting and ending points vary. We can talk about one year, or five years, or six months, or one month. If the average price of consumer goods went up over the time period, that was “inflation” for that time period.
I’d use that, but the consequence is that the people want “action.” Do something!!
Then, as NickP notes, it’s gone before the action can happen. Meanwhile, what will that “action” (Biden signed some bill into law?) do now, now that “inflation” has “stopped”?
And all items don’t have equal weight. So even with your split there could still be inflation.
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Yes I agree completely. The fact that the statement (or the article) leaves out the weights is what spurns my skepticism.
I would also add that I’m not arguing inflation will continue to rise, but I’m not convinced it isn’t at least flat going through the middle of next year.
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As I understand it, rental costs have a significant lag. The BLS has a panel of renters. Each provides just two numbers per year. The question is “what are you paying this month?” not “what would you pay if your lease came up for renewal today?”
That says to me that even if the price on new leases froze today, we’d still see reporting increases in rental costs for nearly a year as leases roll over.
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