Is inflation back?

A 4.29% increase in total consumer spending over a 2 year period (Q4 2019 to Q4 2021)?

This is why that changed when the stimulus money (i.e. extended unemployment benefits) ended. Oh, wait.

lol love it.

I hope no one believes those bs points, let me paraphrase them to make them my points and they will magically be correct.

I see housing demand, labor shortage, supply chain issues, Canadian trucking strike, and tariffs. The article does note transportation issues continue to feel the effects of the pandemic (which are likely COVID related shutdowns) but also attributes this to coastal wildfires and torrential rains in BC ā€œwhich wiped out a number of key transportation routesā€.

there are two high rise developments near me (one is a giant hole in the ground) that Iā€™ve seen no progress for the past 2 years. Lucky me. Wouldā€™ve blocked my bedroom view.

Okay, I can find a source for 2 million immigrants and another for 3 million retirees.

Iā€™ll say that immigrants not only increase the labor force, they also increase demand. Every immigrant needs housing, food, transportation, ā€¦ The net gain in labor supplied vs. goods demanded is only ā€¦ ?

But, Iā€™ll admit a pre-existing opinion. I think that increased wages for US born workers at the bottom of the wage ladder is a Good Thing. Iā€™d rather pay a little extra for fast food than have US born workers qualifying for SNAP. So, I guess wage-driven inflation, when the relevant wages are toward the bottom, is okay with me.

I donā€™t think the Biden admin has been that different a regulatory environment honestly (although he did foolishly stop that pipeline on day 1), but it has definitely been the case that the vilification of fossil fuel producers and thus implied risk of CAPEX has led to a dramatic shift from CAPEX to dividends for US energy producers.

The shale revolution put huge supply into the system and made America a net exporter but the investors got killed.

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Retirees are certainly a big factor as well - my list was not intended to be an exhaustive explanation, more that there are a lot of external forces at play where a typical interest rate cycle by the Fed may not make sense.

The fed added 3T to its balance sheet in the early days of COVID, and another 2T since then. ~40% of the COVID stimulus went to individuals and families, ~40% to businesses, and ~20% to governments and healthcare. How much of all of that is going to drive into inflation? It is certainly relevant.

So 5T in fed asset buying, 5T in COVID relief on top of all the changes in supply and demand for labor and goods, it all has an impact. When you look at the pain that we are currently experiencing from the headline inflation, and break it down, those BS talking points to tie in to the items that are actually going up in price:

Iā€™d say the ā€œBlame Bidenā€ mentality is real BS talking point, for those who are spreading it.

The people blaming gas prices on Biden havenā€™t bothered to investigate what has affected it, they just see Biden president is bad and gas prices are currently high.

Letā€™s not discuss the refineries that closed under the Trump administration nor all the rigs that were shut down during a generationally-defining pandemic. Nope - Biden should be able to snap his fingers and make the private businesses magically at full capacity.

Then, they can complain that heā€™s a socialist!

There are lots of things you can criticize Biden for, so I donā€™t see why people make stuff up other than partisanship. Seems more based on feelings than any facts.

ā€œThat stuff is complicated and I canā€™t figure out how it directly affects me. Also, Iā€™m stupid. I need a Real News Organization to tell me what to think.ā€ ā€“ 80% of GOP

i spent $20 on cherries yesterday. $9/pound

Is that normal?

This year it is. I was paying that per pound earlier this year. But it does seem expensive relative to past years.

That is higher than here.

We pay less right now than Americans do on fruit as the US growers dump their berries and cherries on us at reduced prices this time of year as the fresh BC produce is also available now.

I mentioned in another thread that I just finished up a road trip that included a drive through southern Ontario and QuƩbec.

Thatā€™s a little too much distance to cover without refueling, and gas is typically more expensive in Canada than in the US. The net result was that I bought my most expensive tank of gas ever (but Iā€™ve never driven outside the US and Canada):

image

In the US, thereā€™s been news recently about several gas station chains increasing the default hold placed on credit/debit cards at the pump to $175. So I was intrigued to see this Esso pump ask me how big a hold to authorize. (I just wish I had done the math in advance to know what the number would be.)

US/Canada gas price difference is simply due to our higher gas taxes. Take a driving trip in the UK and you will feel our gas prices are low.

Retail gas prices did NOT go up at the start of this summer holiday weekend: canā€™t recall that ever happening before. Some price resistance? Discretionary driving has reduced a bit?

AAA is saying the opposite: record traffic this weekend:

Possibly a combo of long postponed vacations due to COVID and the problems with airline flights right now.