Art of the Deal folks…Opening the (previously open) straits in exchange for:
A US commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
A US commitment to withdraw its forces from areas surrounding Iran.
The suspension of sanctions on Iran’s oil sales, petrochemical products and derivatives, along with full Iranian access to the resulting financial resources.
A requirement for the United States and its allies to present plans for Iran’s reconstruction worth at least $300 billion.
A reiteration of Iran’s commitment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty not to produce nuclear weapons.
The release of $24 billion in blocked Iranian funds during the 60-day negotiation period, with half of that amount to be made available to Iran before negotiations begin.
Am sure they will write many books on the sheer stupidity of this conflict. To be blunt, this is the worst geo-political mistake of the 21st Century.
The CBS article sounds like it isn’t really a deal, as Iran and the US are insisting no further action in Lebanon and Israel is saying no, Iran is saying they need $12 billion unfrozen upfront to start final negotiations, the US is saying they won’t do that until Iran is complying. That’s a lot of contradictions between the people involved.
None of the reporting sounds like there is even a pathway on the table that would be as good as rewinding time and having Trump not withdraw from the JCPOA. Even stipulating that that was a flawed agreement, what has happened since is worse.
I hope some people finally realize that Trump is one of the weakest presidents in our history. Nothing he has done has made us stronger - at home or abroad.
If he doesn’t get impeached and removed from office, he’ll continue to do Whatever The Fuck he wants.
He merely wanted this to be a big triumph for being a bully.
Incredible maneuvering. After months of broadly looking weak, even to some less blind MAGA, we are paying Iran to get back to where we used to be, except the entire world is upset with us.
What facet of this can be called a victory again? We killed an octogenarian who’s now replaced?
The Turkiye link is an interesting one (Barrack is going to Turkey).
Few points on the announcement of a US-Iran deal:
Image of US power significantly diminished. Washington could not bring Iran to heel, could not open the Hormuz Strait, could not push Saudi into war, could not impose normalisation with Israel, could not protect its allies against cheaper Iranian missiles despite its more expensive technology, could not get NATO to join the war, could not get Europe to join the war, could not convince China to pull away from Iran, and could not stop Gulf states privately negotiating with Iran to exclude themselves from Iran’s list of targets.
Israel overreached and failed. It successfully dragged US to war with Iran, but failed to achieve any strategic aim. No regime change, no Arab-Israeli coalition, no newly annexed territories, publicly slapped down by Trump after attacking Beirut, forced kicking and screaming into a deal it adamantly opposed, and now faces a US public opinion that squarely blames Tel Aviv for dragging America into a war there was no need to fight with potentially generational political consequences for the US-Israeli relationship (Israel cannot fight any war without US funds, troops, weapons, and diplomatic cover).
Saudi Arabia vindicated. Refused to be dragged into conflict, resisted UAE campaign to get Arab states to join Israel’s attack, resisted pressure from Trump to normalise in exchange for security, deepened coordination with Pakistan and Turkiye over integrating supply chains and routes, and successfully negotiated its own de-escalation with Iran.
Turkiye’s Erdogan staves off Israeli attempts to use the war with Iran to drive a wedge between him and Trump as the latter instead asserts their personal friendship, thanks him publicly for helping to bring the deal, and affirms his belief in Turkiye as a stabilising force by promoting Tom Barrack (who the Israelis deeply resent for his alleged partiality and positive view of Ankara).
Meanwhile there’s motorcycles jumping through fireworks on the whitehouse lawn. It’s just a complete parody of something here.
unfortunately, the repercussions are worldwide not just the US, but they are going to impact the US for a generation I think.
Memorandum of understanding for the current phase of Iran negotiations, that has been agreed to, won’t be released until after markets close on Friday (per Trump in presser). Awesome look there.
