# Innumeracy **URL:** \ **Category:** General\ **Created:** [November 17, 2020, 4:32am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153 "2020-11-17T04:32:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 55
**Author:** ![PatientZombie](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/patientzombie/32/391_2.png) [@PatientZombie](https://community.goactuary.com/u/PatientZombie)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 12:54pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1089 "2024-10-31T12:54:16Z")
why is Betsy no longer working here? well, you see, she missed a period ---
**Author:** ![1695814](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/1695814/32/38506_2.png) [@1695814](https://community.goactuary.com/u/1695814)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2024, 2:35am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1090 "2024-11-01T02:35:56Z")
![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/c/d/cd9ef515c2d6a0bdcb61042aa50d66d05fa715e3.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![Actuary321](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Actuary321](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Actuary321)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2024, 2:12pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1091 "2024-11-01T14:12:40Z")
Took me a second to see the caption above. My very first thought was the caption. My second thought was that I always hated having to draw graphs free hand. Same reason I hated art class or any class where I was required to draw something that was supposed to resemble something. Something that extended even to my writing both script and numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Klaymen](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/klaymen/32/194_2.png) [@Klaymen](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Klaymen)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2024, 4:24pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1092 "2024-11-01T16:24:29Z")
Avoid negativity. y=x^2 ---
**Author:** ![1695814](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/1695814/32/38506_2.png) [@1695814](https://community.goactuary.com/u/1695814)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2024, 4:51pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1093 "2024-11-01T16:51:18Z")
Of course, the scale of the y axis might have units of sqrt(y) (I think) which would be nonstandard and most likely beyond the capabilities of a T-shirt designer. ---
**Author:** ![Jasper07734](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/jasper07734/32/24056_2.png) [@Jasper07734](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Jasper07734)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2024, 6:45pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1094 "2024-11-01T18:45:41Z")
Glasses frames benefit for next year (new portal to choose benefits online for the first time ever): - In network: $170 every 24 months - Out of network: $170 every 24 hours šŸ¤” So we can buy glasses every day as long as itā€™s out of network? ---
**Author:** ![Jasper07734](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/jasper07734/32/24056_2.png) [@Jasper07734](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Jasper07734)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2024, 7:29pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1095 "2024-11-01T19:29:10Z")
Also, apparently my beneficiary change request was never processed, as Jaspex was still listed as the group life beneficiary. šŸ˜  šŸ˜± ---
**Author:** ![SteveWhite](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/s/c67d28/32.png) [@SteveWhite](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SteveWhite)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 12:22am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1096 "2024-11-06T00:22:34Z")
![Screenshot 2024-11-05 at 7.20.35 PM](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/a/5/a56a34c0278ee3df022cb8b5f25d4556bb3330b7.png) Arguably not Innumeracy, but certainly meets the stupidity criterion. ---
**Author:** ![Klaymen](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/klaymen/32/194_2.png) [@Klaymen](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Klaymen)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 3:23am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1097 "2024-11-06T03:23:42Z")
The NYTimes election meter: ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/b/e/be0bbed5154c666de17e51175ce5c7bf3fd7682c.png) ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/f/d/fdeb1d661d9717562270a3ffec8f3b250ec5ea2c.png) ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/f/b/fb272cac5989558d50736388493339ebb44b4107.png) ![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/a/0/a0b0d6ab4e600bee943275cdc1daf59a4d3cd098.png) I guess ā€œLikelyā€ is 85% to 95%. ---
**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 5:50pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1098 "2024-11-06T17:50:23Z")
I assume they were trying to calibrate to how people ā€œfeelā€. Which is hard because how people feel is way off from how %s work. I also felt like they were pretty conservative with their %s, so basically double-understated. ---
**Author:** ![Klaymen](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/klaymen/32/194_2.png) [@Klaymen](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Klaymen)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 6:04pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1099 "2024-11-06T18:04:14Z")
I donā€™t think the average American is quite that stupid. Just give them a linear scale from 0-100 and they can figure it our just like speedometers on cars. ---
**Author:** ![Maphistos\_Sidekick](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/maphistos_sidekick/32/84973_2.png) [@Maphistos\_Sidekick](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Maphistos_Sidekick)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 6:36pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1100 "2024-11-06T18:36:19Z")
> [@Klaymen](#): > > I donā€™t think the average American is quite that stupid. A few of us might wonder if events of the past 24 hours suggest the contrary. ---
**Author:** ![SteveWhite](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/s/c67d28/32.png) [@SteveWhite](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SteveWhite)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 7:03pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1101 "2024-11-06T19:03:44Z")
> [@Klaymen](#): > > donā€™t think the average American is quite that stupid. Just give them a linear scale from 0-100 and they can figure it our just like speedometers on cars. > [@Maphistos\_Sidekick](#): > > A few of us might wonder if events of the past 24 hours suggest the contrary. He could be right. Klaymenā€™s statement did not specify which direction from ā€œthat stupidā€. ---
**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 7:53pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1102 "2024-11-06T19:53:10Z")
I mean that if you tell someone you are 80% confident that something will occur, they will tend to take it as a sure thing and accuse you of lying if it doesnā€™t. In general I think of course people are idiots. If they had non-zero grasp on probability they would not play slot machines. ---
**Author:** ![Klaymen](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/klaymen/32/194_2.png) [@Klaymen](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Klaymen)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 8:04pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1103 "2024-11-06T20:04:24Z")
> [@SredniVashtar](#): > > In general I think of course people are idiots. If they had non-zero grasp on probability they would not play slot machines. Lots of actuaries gambleā€¦ ---
**Author:** ![SteveWhite](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/s/c67d28/32.png) [@SteveWhite](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SteveWhite)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 8:21pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1104 "2024-11-06T20:21:19Z")
> [@SredniVashtar](#): > > In general I think of course people are idiots. If they had non-zero grasp on probability they would not play slot machines. > [@Klaymen](#): > > Lots of actuaries gambleā€¦ Hopefully few of them do so believing they have a positive financial expectation. For the others, does having passed an exam on probability guarantee a non-zero grasp on probability? Guarantee, even despite possible evidence to the contrary? (Gambling is an observable characteristic. Believing they have a positive financial expectation is not. Hence no reasonable way to decide which people would go into the conditional sample space.) ---
**Author:** ![Vorian\_Atreides](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/vorian_atreides/32/65623_2.png) [@Vorian\_Atreides](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Vorian_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 8:24pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1105 "2024-11-06T20:24:52Z")
> [@SredniVashtar](#): > > if you tell someone you are 80% confident that something will occur, they will tend to take it as a sure thing and accuse you of lying if it doesnā€™t. Thereā€™s a 42% chance of rain. Will it rain? Most likely ---
**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 8:35pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1106 "2024-11-06T20:35:01Z")
> [@SteveWhite](#): > > Hopefully few of them do so believing they have a positive financial expectation. For the others, does having passed an exam on probability guarantee a non-zero grasp on probability? Guarantee, even despite possible evidence to the contrary? I would expect many actuaries to play poker, since you can win by understanding odds. Iā€™d be surprised if they sat at slot machines though. Well, somewhat surprised. Maybe Iā€™m underestimating the glory of potacular. ---
**Author:** ![Klaymen](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/klaymen/32/194_2.png) [@Klaymen](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Klaymen)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 8:41pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1107 "2024-11-06T20:41:36Z")
> [@SteveWhite](#): > > Hopefully few of them do so believing they have a positive financial expectation. For the others, does having passed an exam on probability guarantee a non-zero grasp on probability? Guarantee, even despite possible evidence to the contrary? I knew someone who eventually became a consulting ACAS who recognized the odds were in his favor ā€¦ and didnā€™t care. ---
**Author:** ![Maphistos\_Sidekick](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/maphistos_sidekick/32/84973_2.png) [@Maphistos\_Sidekick](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Maphistos_Sidekick)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2024, 8:47pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153/1108 "2024-11-06T20:47:30Z")
> [@Klaymen](#): > > Lots of actuaries gambleā€¦ How many of them gamble ā€œseriouslyā€ at slots and similar casino games? Most of the gambling actuaries I know focus their activities on games with an element of skill (like poker), or betting where there is an element of analysis (blackjack, betting on sports). (That of course doesnā€™t exclude the possibility of throwing a few bucks in a slot or video poker machine, or buying the occasional lottery ticketā€¦) [Previous page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153.md?page=54) [Next page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/innumeracy/1153.md?page=56)