Tropical Storm Idalia is located roughly 150 miles due south of Cuba’s western tip. NHC’s 5am advisory forecasts a major hurricane making landfall somewhere between St. Pete and St. Marks sometime Wednesday morning or early afternoon. Hurricane watches are in effect from roughly Fort Myers to Apalachiola. Hurricane models are showing a strong Cat 3 or Cat 4 at landfall. While they’re all in general agreement on the landfall area, it bears watching closely as the approach could get perilously close to Tampa/St. Pete metro. This area of the Gulf has historically high oceanic heat content (yay climate change!) and rapid intensification is possible which would also serve to change the track likely more to the east.

Good thing Citizens purchased $5bn of reinsurance recently:

We’d better put Alabama on alert.


Hurricane warnings are now up, roughly St. Pete to St. Marks.

Alabama could experience significant effects. Remember, the cone of uncertainty is just the center. Effects extend well beyond it. It would be accurate to put Alabama on alert for TS winds, no sharpie necessary.


Interesting that Idalia could hit Vidalia, GA. The thought of that makes me cry.

Someone get a shaprie.


My sister and her husband live in Seminole (metro Tampa), which is in Pinellas County. On TV you may see counties with mandatory evacuation orders, and Pinellas is highlighted as one of them.

What the news often doesn’t specify is that the entire county isn’t under an evacuation order. Right now the mandatory evacuation is for evacuation zone A, which is basically beachfront and low lying areas. Mobile homes are also under mandatory evacuation. Sister lives in zone C, where they are evacuating many people to. Sister is staying put this time. They’ve only decided to bug out once since they moved there several years ago.

Looks like surge could be very bad further north in the big bend area of the coast. Tallahassee will likely see a lot of damage, as they have a lot of mature trees

My father used to live in Treasure Island, right outside of St. Pete. In his 8 years there he had just 1 evacuation, and didn’t have to go very far. His townhouse was never damaged. The most interesting thing I remember was that outlets on the ground floor were a few feet off the ground so that they were less likely to get damaged by flooding.

Posted to the /r/alabama subreddit over the weekend:


DeSantis is unlikely to break out his disaster outfit after he got roasted last time

No major hurricane has ever hit in Apalachee Bay in the big bend area.

Idalia has bumped Trump as CNN’s main story. But storm coverage has always been their forte.

Hopefully people there won’t be complacent. The eye is finally organized and pressure is dropping right now. The models did a good job with this one, it stayed on schedule intensity-wise and away from the most populated areas, but I am a little concerned about Tallahassee. Hopefully it will track east so they get the western side.

I heard that as well and wondered what that would mean for damage in the area. If FL building codes only apply on new construction or on certain remodels, it seems like it would be a lot costlier of a storm for its given size/intensity.

Looks like Tallahassee only got a glancing blow.

That blow happened to hit the governor’s mansion.

A foot of water in St. Pete right now.

there’s a business owner on tv and radio talking about how his business is not insured bc it is uninsuarble for flood.

i thought that NFIP would cover for flood and citizens would cover for property coverage.

anyone know if those programs typically deny covering a property? or did the owner leave out the “at a price I think is reasonable”?

My guess is that he didn’t like the price, although IIRC there are some very limited reasons why a commercial property might be ineligible for NFIP. I think one is if the structure is built over water.

Also, I believe the NFIP will only cover the first 500K of commercial property. If you want more than that, it’s with a private insurer.

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Was just watching the weather channel, and one of their experts said Idalia started an eyewall replacement cycle right before it made landfall. That greatly reduced the speed of winds relative to those expected.