In fairness the polls weren’t particularly great in 2020 either (even on a national level), I think there must be some truth to the whole trying to poll DJT support challenges.
But again, we’re talking about 3-5% errors. Not 30%-50%.
(also, I’d guess that DJT support bias would be in the same direction as election-fraud bias)
Not much farther up you could go 
, 100%?
I’m trying to avoid a conversation about which denominator to use. 
In all seriousness, 538 predicted a 8.4% lead, but Biden won with a 4.4% lead. They were off by 4%. They had similar errors 2016 and 2012.
Compare to the same polls saying 60%-80% of republicans believing that there was widespread fraud and/or that Biden stole the election. You can assume that those polls are off by 5% if you want, it’s still damning.
Edit: can’t stop/ won’t stop editing.
My wife has seen allegedly educated people saying (online) that Trump won 70% of the vote.
I don’t watch interviews, but I can’t imagine trying to interview Trump. It would be impossible to ask the sort of questions that people want the answers to, and still come off as “fair”.
“Why did you say this crazy thing?”
“Why did you do that crazy thing?”
“Why did you tweet 45 times about how COVID is no big deal and going away?”
“Why are you lying to my face right now?”
etc.
I appreciate your hate of politicians dodging questions (I hate it too), but that’s one of the privileges of being a normal human being with no history of doing/saying lots of insane shit.
It leads to lots of questions I would want to ask that have no good answers.
Maybe you should put the two transcripts side by side and try to imagine what kinds of questions you would ask.
My wife has seen allegedly educated people saying (online) that Trump won 70% of the vote. No sure what to do about this level of delusion.
Agree. Trump would answer a question, and it would require more questions, because he answered it unsatisfactorily. And usually vaguely.
Also, the sitting President has the privilege of being in office and already in charge of things (that he bears no responsibility, you know), while Biden and Harris were not in a position to do anything, only promise things.
See the video linked below. Listen to Rand Paul frame this Republican position on the stolen election lie.
- The issue was debated in the courts and by the states yet Paul won’t recognize the results.
- He both sides the issue claiming the liberals are the one not being open.
- He frames himself and his party as victims.
This is why Republicans voters need to be reprogrammed. They need to give up their party leadership that perpetuates these lies. We are doomed as a nation if this is acceptable behavior from a high ranking senator.
approx 8 minute video, first 3 is the interview with Paul las 5 is commentary form Brian Tyler Cohen.
My mother: *69 and calls back even if she doesn’t know who called.
Supposedly a bare bones Constitutional Libertarian senator at that. He is held up as someone who is a no BS conservative.
Rand isn’t libertarian — his father was, but Rand is a big government conservative through and through.
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Yeah, it’s the difference between a first date interview and an crazy-exspouse interview.
“Do you really like getting caught in the rain because that sounds like canned bullshit.”
Or
“Why did you cut up my underwear with a pair of garden shears and then say ‘you’re next peach blossom’?”
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