How an Actuary Saved Elon Musk

(or, rather, how PayPal did well where similar services failed)

It’s how an actuary quantified the issue w/ fraud, and came up w/ an IBNR for fraud losses using the chain-ladder method. Evidently, everybody had been underestimating how bad transaction fraud was. Then they used predictive models to detect fraud.

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I just like the definition “An actuary is someone who confronts the uncertainties of the future.” Bring it on psychics.


lol Chain Ladder.

Starting to think it’s going to take more than an actuary to save Elon.