Have we rounded the corner for the final time?

However, at least one of the vaccines has been shown to be only partially effective against the South African strain, suggesting that the virus can mutate into forms the current vaccines won’t be very effective for.

The consensus seems to be that the virus will/has become endemic, and we’ll just get new vaccines every year or two, akin to what we are supposed to do for the flu.

Correct, the J&J vaccine, a single dose vaccine that only has 66% total efficacy. We have no data yet on the two mRNA vaccines, which are 90+% effective against the primary strain.


I found this most interesting:
“Phylogenetic analyses suggest that OC43 first emerged when a mouse-to-bovine CoV gained human tropisms near the turn of the 20th century following a gene deletion event that coincided with a respiratory pandemic”

So we have seen something like this before, in this family of viruses. And today no one gets a vaccine, because it simply is not needed. That could be the case with COVID19 as well.

Also, the sometimes severe cases of the other coronaviruses sound similar to COVID 19.

500,000 deaths!

I continue to feel optimistic.

We’re up to 45M people nationwide (1/8 of US population) that have gotten a 1st dose. And 20M people nationwide (6% of US population) have received the full 2 doses.

J&J vax (single shot) coming on line in the next week and they have promised 100M doses by end of June.

Only 209 million 18 and over in the USA per google, so 21.5% of the adult population which is the real target since kids can’t get the vaccine

does “kid” mean 18?

  1. I realize one of the vaccines is available to 16-17 but the other is 18+ right now

The US has hit some milestones for vaccinations.

20% of the total population has received 1 dose
10% of the total population has been fully vaccinated

I assume people who received the J&J vaccine are included in that 10%?

Assume so. I changed the wording to “fully vaccinated”, which is what is used on the CDC website.

J&J on the CDC website is currently less than 500k of the total.

yeah, i think they only had 4 days of it in nyc. now they are out of it for the time being.

Canada is way behind. We’re at like 5%, a couple million or so.
part of that’s due to political baloney, partly due to manufacturer delays, and to some extent trump’s decision to lockdown US manufacturers to provide doses to US first.

Fortunately some new vaccines on the way, hopefully we’ll accelerate and get caught up. I hear everything from first of June to sometime in September before we’re done. Hopefully first of June; my sister and my daughter were both supposed to have wedding parties in 2020 and it’ll really suck if we miss both of those again this year. If it doesn’t happen in 2021, my daughter likely won’t have a party at all - and that’ll really suck. I’m really looking forward to a drunken pig roast and skeet shoot with 200 of my best friends.

which is all optics and just ignorance

it is a worldwide problem and I love the metaphor… you can’t tell someone you don’t care if they only piss in their section of the pool

well, Biden said he would share vaccine with the rest of the world once we are all vaccinated, but yeah, that’s not soon enough really.

I can picture it now:

Nationally it looks like we hit the bottom of valley for cases last week and they are slowly starting to creep back up. Some states are seeing cases really starting to rise (looking at you Michigan - cases there are up almost 4x from their bottom mid-Feb).

Its going to be a race between new cases and the vaccines for the next couple months.

1/3 of the US population >18 has received at least 1 dose
Almost 20% of the US population >18 have been fully vaccinated

70% of the US population >65 has received at least 1 dose
45% of the US population >65 have been fully vaccinated

The fact that NY/NJ new cases weekly average is 1/2 prior peaks even considering 1) vaccinated status 2) prior COVID cases is concerning. Is it reporting lag or something new? Northeast is having a resurgence, the question is why?