It seems like we are on the downhill slope nationally for both cases and hospitalizations (deaths looks down, but not sure if that is real yet). Do we think the worst is behind us? Or will the new “more infectious” variant cause another spike?
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1353490478801461249?s=20
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1353490482760871936?s=20
I think the downturn, natural immunity from the prior infections and the vaccine - I would not expect another spike, unless there is a new variant that is different enough to render everything else useless
The bad news are those not getting vaccinated, not being sure how long immunity will last - natural & vaccination and people getting too comfortable and not following protocols.
It depends on how fast the vaccine gets rolled out. If it continues to crawl and people are faced with the prospect of another lost summer with no vacations/family get togethers, we may see a final spike as people ignore restrictions and do things anyway.
somehow our cases in ny were very low last summer after our initial spike in late march/early april. i think that the good weather did help keep cases somewhat lower, at least where I live.
then they went up again as the weather got cold.
Yeah, but people were generally still wearing masks and not getting together too much. Being outside definitely helps, and it won’t be anything like the winter spike, but I could see cases rising in mid-July if only 20% of the population is vaccinated and people still have 4th of July picnics and things like that.
20M have already got at least 1 shot. If we are only at 60M by July then there are major problems.
That’s when I’m going to start losing patience. My daughter got married last year, no reception. I’ve got fishing with friends and family to do. Entertaining with friends and neighbours. No Christmas or thanksgiving this year.
I get the lockdown because covid, and we’ve been very careful and compliant. But now the only thing standing between me and a normal life is manufacturing and distribution of a vaccine. So basically logistics. So I expect that our gov’t figures out the logistics and makes it happen.
especially if we get 1 or 2 additional drug companies
I’d have more faith if they let Amazon or Honeywell do it.
I think it’s safe to say there are major problems. But hopefully we are well beyond 60M in July.
I very much doubt we’ll have herd immunity by July though, which is what we really need.
I think you skipped actual take up of the vaccine. No goof producing and distributing the vaccine if there are too many people refusing to have it to achieve herd immunity.
Cases and hospitalizations continue to fall off a cliff nationally. Deaths might finally be on the way down. Vax distribution seems to be in a better place than 2 weeks ago. Almost 10% of the population has gotten at least 1 shot.
I am by no means celebrating yet, but I am feeling the best about this whole mess than I have in quite a while.
I’ve been keeping an eye on the testing and positive cases in my case. It looks like the cases are going down, but testing is also going down too. Positive rates are staying pretty steady at 9-10%, which isn’t great… I don’t know what to think. Are we doing less tests because people with mild symptoms or just want to be safe aren’t getting tested anymore, leaving people more likely to be positive? I just don’t know.
Hospitalizations are down, vaccinations are slowly going up. Hope we’re on the last downward slope.
I’m pessimistically assuming that there’s going to be a small spike post-Super Bowl due to people going to parties. So as people come down with symptoms and get tested we should start seeing that early next week.
And maybe another small spike post-Spring-Break particularly if the college kids aren’t able to get vaccinated before then.
Hopefully they’ll be small anyway. 
I think they will be smaller than the spike from Thanksgiving and christmas. Easier to just not go to a superbowl party than when your family wants you home for the holidays. I felt obligated on Thanksgiving.
I would agree we are at an end EXCEPT for the variants.
will vaccines and current immunities keep people safe or are we starting all over again?
the only positive would be new vaccines should be an even quicker development
I think testing is down because cases are down. Ideally you would want to see positive % dropping, but at least with the tests dropping your positive % isn’t increasing.
I can’t speak for your locale, but for my state positives peaked around 11/20, testing peaked around 12/2. We were seeing about 25k tests/day from Sept through Oct before things started spiking (peaked around 55k tests/day in late Nov). Now for the last couple weeks we are back to that 25k/day baseline. Although out positivity rate has been dropping even with that 25k/day, being about 7% mid-January to 3.5% now.
Cases in my county are about a third of the level they were a month ago with positive rates down 50%. Given most schools are in person and bars are open to indoor dining (with some capacity limits and restrictions on hours), it seems this is just about over with. Seems the only reason it would go back up is if those who have generally followed stay at home advice suddenly started all going out, but at this point getting a vaccine seems only a few more months away for much of that group.
Variants - I think they are being overblown and at most just slow the drop in cases slightly.
I hope you are correct but fear you may not be.
But that’s the whole point of the mRNA vaccine though. It target’s the spike protein only. If the virus mutates, as long as it still has its spikes, the mRNA vaccine will still be effective. That’s the hope, at least.
We’ll all need periodic boosters though. I think that much is obvious.