# Global Warming **URL:** \ **Category:** Political Topics\ **Created:** [January 1, 2021, 4:45pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673 "2021-01-01T16:45:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2023, 1:48pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/164 "2023-07-20T13:48:17Z")
You could compare it to COVID. Scientists/actuaries/etc. knew right away that it was going to be an unforgettable disease. And we played at guessing the death toll here on the AO. 10k? 100k? 1M? 10M? Others (conservative pundits and politicians) pretended it wasn’t happening, even when it was happening in real time. Then the window of uncertainty narrowed, and it became what it is-- just a shitty thing that has happened, and that we probably could have handled better. Not the end of the world, but also not nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Nick\_Papagiorgio](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/nick_papagiorgio/32/451_2.png) [@Nick\_Papagiorgio](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Nick_Papagiorgio)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2023, 5:23pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/165 "2023-07-20T17:23:28Z")
I feel like a lot of people are still on :oh_noes: and maybe we should be moving closer to “Now what?” ---
**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2023, 6:27pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/166 "2023-07-20T18:27:46Z")
The people say “Oh Noes!” to make the Government say “Now What?” ---
**Author:** ![YankeeTripper](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/yankeetripper/32/946_2.png) [@YankeeTripper](https://community.goactuary.com/u/YankeeTripper)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2023, 7:10pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/167 "2023-07-20T19:10:30Z")
I’m not sure why any of this is surprising. It matches oil company suppressed findings and predictions they did in the 1980s. People have been trying for 20+ years (almost 40 if you go back to the original congressional hearings in 1988) and we still haven’t moved on to the “Now What” phase. ---
**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2023, 7:26pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/168 "2023-07-20T19:26:27Z")
> [@YankeeTripper](#): > > (almost 40 if you go back to the original congressional hearings in 1988) and we still haven’t moved on to the “Now What” phase. Follow-up, today Hansen told the Guardian that we are “damned fools”. ---
**Author:** ![Cooke](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/cooke/32/15467_2.png) [@Cooke](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Cooke)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2023, 7:46pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/169 "2023-07-20T19:46:43Z")
The identification of the problem goes back a lot further: extract from Wikipedia is below. When I became involved with environmentalism in the 1960’s my focus was on clean air and water: alarm over warming was not on most folks’ radar until later. “The history of the scientific discovery of climate change began in the early 19th century when the natural greenhouse effect was first identified. In the late 19th century, scientists first argued that human emissions of greenhouse gases could change Earth’s energy balance and climate. In the 1960s, the evidence for the warming effect of carbon dioxide gas became increasingly convincing.” ---
**Author:** ![soyleche](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/soyleche/32/42_2.png) [@soyleche](https://community.goactuary.com/u/soyleche)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2023, 9:28pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/170 "2023-07-20T21:28:13Z")
> **[Scientific Briefing](https://xkcd.com/2278/)** ---
**Author:** ![ArthurItas](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/arthuritas/32/63_2.png) [@ArthurItas](https://community.goactuary.com/u/ArthurItas)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2023, 3:52pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/171 "2023-07-21T15:52:08Z")
There’s a recent Financial Times article on Global Warming that sounds interesting based on snippets the author is posting on Twitter, but unfortunately is behind a paywall and that pdf trick didn’t work on it. If anyone can gift an article, I’d like to read it. The gist of the article is that we are emphasizing the wrong numbers when we talk about an average rise in temperature of 2 degrees C. The increasing average is driven by increasing extreme events, and we should focus more on the increase in extremes rather than the straight average increase. Some pieces he’s shared on Twitter. ![Image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/e/1/e110c05457e2a7f7be4cbb57b34b7523cf215956.jpeg) Searing heat is killing hundreds per year in AZ. Granted over this whole period population has gone way up, but that recent uptick is striking. The number of extreme heat days in major metro areas has grown significantly in recent years: ![Image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/4/d/4d5c681eedd9ffc47683cd1bd03cac0866557879.jpeg) London has 10x more extreme heat days than it did in the 1950’s. Paris is up 8x, Beijing 6x. Even the already hot Phoenix is up 4x. ---
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2023, 4:06pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/172 "2023-07-21T16:06:19Z")
I’m awaiting MPC’s breakdown of heat-related deaths by age. Or, perhaps we could see if the Variance in temperatures has increased from the past? Not sure what we would measure. Say, monthly highs and lows? ---
**Author:** ![notreallyme](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/notreallyme/32/2729_2.png) [@notreallyme](https://community.goactuary.com/u/notreallyme)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2023, 4:07pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/173 "2023-07-21T16:07:39Z")
Do any actuaries have a soundbyte “Due to climate change, the 1-in-500-year flood is now the 1-in-\_\_\_-year flood”? ---
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2023, 4:09pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/174 "2023-07-21T16:09:37Z")
My guess: 2 ---
**Author:** ![ArthurItas](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/arthuritas/32/63_2.png) [@ArthurItas](https://community.goactuary.com/u/ArthurItas)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2023, 4:13pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/175 "2023-07-21T16:13:02Z")
I started a thread in the P&C section a while back on US flood risk after I read a recent paper from First Street. Here are the highlights: > **[404 - Page Not Found](https://firststreet.org/research-lab/published-research/article-highlights-from-the-precipitation-problem)** The paper is free to download, but they ask you who you are. ETA: this latest study says in the worst cases some 1/100 events will now occur as frequently as 1/8 ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2023, 4:14pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/176 "2023-07-21T16:14:13Z")
I like the second graph as it is less prone to things like changes in how causes of deaths are reported. That said, one does need to be careful in analyzing temperature trends. I know in some cities they used to measure downtown and now it’s more common to measure at a major airport. Which actually would _understate_ a warming trend since downtown will virtually always be warmer than out by the airport. But even with that imperfection in the data, it’s usually just a one-time switch that will have a very small impact on the data, and as I said, actually understate a warming trend. ---
**Author:** ![Rastiln](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/rastiln/32/77682_2.png) [@Rastiln](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Rastiln)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2023, 4:53pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/177 "2023-07-21T16:53:30Z")
[https://archive.li/R1e18](https://archive.li/R1e18) Article for free. ---
**Author:** ![knoath](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/knoath/32/65607_2.png) [@knoath](https://community.goactuary.com/u/knoath)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2023, 5:16pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/178 "2023-07-21T17:16:00Z")
" Some are people who suffered severe burns when their skin came into contact with pavements superheated to as much as **82C (180F**)." A new way to hurt oneself in a slip and fall. ---
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2023, 6:14pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/179 "2023-07-21T18:14:18Z")
> [@knoath](#): > > " Some are people who suffered severe burns when their skin came into contact with pavements superheated to as much as **82C (180F**)." The Sidewalk is lava!! ---
**Author:** ![Cooke](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/cooke/32/15467_2.png) [@Cooke](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Cooke)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2023, 3:29pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/180 "2023-07-22T15:29:01Z")
Interesting (gifted) article on cool-pavement treatments in several US cities. > **[Cool pavement is like sunscreen for streets. Can it take the heat out of...](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/de9040e3a73aa22e0b71cbf0d6bf1cdcf7d1c75eba6fc88b1bc97e3b5c51751f/2M4Z7RHQPFE2HCQSITLITAFEWI/)** > > As record temperatures scorch the southern U.S., some cities are experimenting with using reflective coatings to change how roads absorb heat ---
**Author:** ![The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/the_polymath/32/83081_2.png) [@The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/u/The_Polymath)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2023, 5:53pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/181 "2023-07-25T17:53:03Z")
The serious climate effects are much closer than people think. Once you enter the tails of the distribution (which we have now due to 1.5C heating), the effects of further heating are magnified. (Analogous to the effect of moving from the 99.6th percentile to 99.7th percentile of the distribution being much greater than moving from 99.1 to 99.2 due to larger scaled impacts) The Gulf stream could collapse entirely by c2025. Guess what happens to the US and Europe then… > **[Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests)** > > A collapse would bring catastrophic climate impacts but scientists disagree over the new analysis ---
**Author:** ![ArthurItas](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/arthuritas/32/63_2.png) [@ArthurItas](https://community.goactuary.com/u/ArthurItas)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2023, 6:12pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/182 "2023-07-25T18:12:44Z")
A buoy in Manatee Bay, about 40 miles south of Miami, posted a temperature of 101.1 degrees at 6 p.m. yesterday after a morning low of 91 degrees. If confirmed it would be the hottest sea surface temperature ever recorded. That’s a hot tub temperature [https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/25/florida-record-warm-ocean-climate/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/25/florida-record-warm-ocean-climate/) ---
**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2023, 3:03pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/183 "2023-07-27T15:03:15Z")
I don’t like how “extreme heat” is 30C (86F). I would call that “pretty warm”. I would rather define extreme as maybe 40C (104F), which London has had one of. I do like the focus on extreme events. Though it’s just hard to aggregate effectively. Counting heat-wave deaths is a good way to do that. Heat waves really didn’t used to be a notable “cause of death”, and now they are. On the other hand, it’s confusing because we _could_ adapt to some heat waves. For example, Phoenix (which has now had 25 days in a row of 110F), doesn’t need to be a growing city and well known golfing hub. It’s also tough because if we’re talking about extreme weather I want to include hurricanes, floods, and droughts. All of which will have a bigger impact on the future. But are hard to estimate. [Previous page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673.md?page=8) [Next page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673.md?page=10)