# Global Warming

**URL:** <https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673>\
**Category:** Political Topics\
**Created:** [January 1, 2021, 4:45pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673 "2021-01-01T16:45:28Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 5

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**Author:** ![SteveGrondin](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/stevegrondin/32/3257_2.png) [@SteveGrondin](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SteveGrondin)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 9:18pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/83 "2023-06-25T21:18:50Z")

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82, that’s a hot tub!

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**Author:** ![OldTimer](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/o/8797f3/32.png) [@OldTimer](https://community.goactuary.com/u/OldTimer)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 9:56pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/84 "2023-06-25T21:56:17Z")

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That’s really my minimum to get in the water.

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**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2023, 5:25pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/85 "2023-06-30T17:25:07Z")

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> [@SredniVashtar](#):
>
> Canada is on fire.

Canada is still making New Yorkers cough a lot. Thanks Canada!!!

Good reminder of how easy-peasy it would be to geoengineer the whole sky.

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**Author:** ![Cooke](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/cooke/32/15467_2.png) [@Cooke](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Cooke)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2023, 5:54pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/86 "2023-06-30T17:54:59Z")

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I’m sorry.

Sadly the main fire in Quebec is so large it will probably burn all summer and fall.

Any time there is a northerly wind the northern US will get smoke. You should hope the wind switches to southerlies so the smoke gets blown to the Arctic.

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**Author:** ![Nick\_Papagiorgio](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/nick_papagiorgio/32/451_2.png) [@Nick\_Papagiorgio](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Nick_Papagiorgio)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2023, 6:40pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/87 "2023-06-30T18:40:27Z")

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Interestingly that much smoke all year will act as a cooling mechanism for the global climate.

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**Author:** ![The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/the_polymath/32/83081_2.png) [@The\_Polymath](https://community.goactuary.com/u/The_Polymath)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2023, 6:52pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/88 "2023-06-30T18:52:06Z")

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That would be a no. You have clearly not thought this through.

Let me guess, you got that “information” from conservative US media?

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**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2023, 7:06pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/89 "2023-06-30T19:06:47Z")

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> [@Nick\_Papagiorgio](#):
>
> Interestingly that much smoke all year will act as a cooling mechanism for the global climate.

> [@The\_Polymath](#):
>
> That would be a no. You have clearly not thought this through.

Depends on how high the smoke is. Pinatubo height (stratosphere)? Sure. Where we (or polar bears) can breathe it (troposphere)? No.

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**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2023, 8:42pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/90 "2023-06-30T20:42:53Z")

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> [@Nick\_Papagiorgio](#):
>
> Interestingly that much smoke all year will act as a cooling mechanism for the global climate.

> [@The\_Polymath](#):
>
> That would be a no. You have clearly not thought this through.

I think it will cause the North East to be somewhat cooler for the next few months. However? the science is rough because it’s a mix of stuff – black carbon, so4, co2, and well, literal fire – and it mixes with other stuff so it’s hard to model.

After the smoke clears so to speak, it will just be more co2, which will cause global warming for 50 years.

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**Author:** ![Cooke](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/cooke/32/15467_2.png) [@Cooke](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Cooke)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2023, 10:11pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/91 "2023-06-30T22:11:03Z")

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My heart goes out to those of you affected by the Quebec forest fires because I know how miserable breathing that smoke is. Totally spoils a summer day.

Vancouver has been great so far this year but inevitably we will get bad smoke days. The smoke comes up from Washington/Oregon/California with the southerlies and from other parts of BC from the northerlies or easterlies. Fortunately our prevailing winds are the westerlies and the Pacific Ocean is that direction.

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**Author:** ![Maphistos\_Sidekick](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/maphistos_sidekick/32/84973_2.png) [@Maphistos\_Sidekick](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Maphistos_Sidekick)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2023, 10:38pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/92 "2023-06-30T22:38:14Z")

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> [@Cooke](#):
>
> Fortunately our prevailing winds are the westerlies and the Pacific Ocean is that direction.

Hopefully things aren’t so dire that we have to worry about wildfires on the Pacific Ocean…yet.

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**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2023, 10:41pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/93 "2023-06-30T22:41:00Z")

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> [@Maphistos\_Sidekick](#):
>
> Hopefully things aren’t so dire that we have to worry about wildfires on the Pacific Ocean…yet.

No doubt the Pacific Ocean fires are perfectly natural, probably caused by the sun or something, and have occurred many times throughout history.

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**Author:** ![soyleche](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/soyleche/32/42_2.png) [@soyleche](https://community.goactuary.com/u/soyleche)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2023, 10:44pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/94 "2023-06-30T22:44:53Z")

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Undoubtably things get hot when the sun sets in the Pacific…

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**Author:** ![Cooke](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/cooke/32/15467_2.png) [@Cooke](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Cooke)\
**Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 12:08am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/95 "2023-07-01T00:08:58Z")

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> [@Maphistos\_Sidekick](#):
>
> Hopefully things aren’t so dire that we have to worry about wildfires on the Pacific Ocean

Yes, the Pacific hasn’t got to the condition of the Cuyahoga River, yet. I know you must be aware of those latter fires but the youngsters here may need to Google it.

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**Author:** ![SteveGrondin](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/stevegrondin/32/3257_2.png) [@SteveGrondin](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SteveGrondin)\
**Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 2:01am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/96 "2023-07-01T02:01:07Z")

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When the kelp forests burn I don’t think people will deny climate change.

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**Author:** ![soyleche](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/soyleche/32/42_2.png) [@soyleche](https://community.goactuary.com/u/soyleche)\
**Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 2:08am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/97 "2023-07-01T02:08:11Z")

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I’d bet, if the four or five lest, at least one would.

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**Author:** ![Kenny](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/kenny/32/53_2.png) [@Kenny](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Kenny)\
**Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 9:08pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/98 "2023-07-01T21:08:45Z")

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> **[Humans pump so much groundwater that Earth’s axis has shifted, study finds | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/26/world/pumping-groundwater-earth-axis-shifting-scn/index.html)**
>
> New research shows that persistent groundwater extraction over more than a decade has shifted the axis on which our planet rotates.

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**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\
**Post date:** [July 6, 2023, 9:00pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/99 "2023-07-06T21:00:15Z")

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:bump:

 ![cfsr_world_t2_day](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/3X/7/1/717b255f1c78c84fdbdaa7bbcf6bbb0c9187c80f.png)

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**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\
**Post date:** [July 6, 2023, 9:15pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/100 "2023-07-06T21:15:48Z")

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OK, so it is some average. Will this be, as my local news noted this, the fact, without checking how they got there?  
How many data points for each date? Where are they? Are the data collection spots on the globe the same since 1979? Are they only in the Northern Hemisphere?  
Not that I’m a skeptic. It probably is the hottest day ever. But, without knowing how they (whoever “they” are) collected the data and maybe adjusted in a perfectly legitimate way, why will most people, including “the news” simply accept their conclusion? “Too much time to explain that. They’re scientists they know what they’re doing.” Yeah, maybe.

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**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\
**Post date:** [July 6, 2023, 9:40pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/101 "2023-07-06T21:40:31Z")

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It’s a good question.

Source here:

> **[Climate Reanalyzer](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/)**
>
> Climate and weather data visualizations

I assume it’s the same as it is for actuaries. Where the only people who can really judge your reserves are other actuaries, using a whole bunch of flawed assumptions, flawed data, and flawed adjustments.

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**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\
**Post date:** [July 6, 2023, 9:41pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/global-warming/1673/102 "2023-07-06T21:41:20Z")

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That of course is just the GAAP temperature. The STAT temperature is 4 degrees lower, and the IRS temperature is 5 degrees higher.

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