Anyway, saw an article from April on RSV kicking up:
From Iceland, with 90%+ vaccination rates, has seen one COVID death (yeah, should look at the excess deaths) in 2021.
Included: some shitty charts not using per 100000 population.
So, quick math: there are twice as many COVID cases among the vaccinated as there are in the unvaccinated, but there are nine times as many vaccinated as unvaccinated. So, the COVID rate among the unvaccinated is about 4.5 times the COVID rate among the vaccinated.
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in fairness it is Iceland, perhaps per 10,000 is more reasonable?
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Perhaps, but we in the USA are using per 100000, so the numbers can make more comparable sense.
Where is that link to the video where the guy uses the sliding graph to explain herd immunity and how when you get enough vaccinated you can actually end up with more vaccinated getting infected than unvaccinated? Was it Lucy or meep? Pretty sure it was posted more than once. I found it educational.
I’ve posted things like that elsewhere, but didn’t think I had to here. That’s exam 1 material. 
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I posted the video, because I liked how it was done.
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Do you know how long ago it was that @dr_t_non-fan or I took exam 1?
Let’s just say I hadn’t hear of Y2K bug yet. And wouldn’t for a few years.
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Hey! Speak for yourself!!
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Ditto what he said.
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Same. But I am still conversant with Bayes theorem. It’s something that is sort of work-relevant.
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Same
In particular, I am often having to deal with Simpson’s “paradox” in real-life data.
I always look for the base rate.
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Breakthrough CFR:
Can anyone explain why the vaccinated CFR is much better than unvaccinated CFR? It doesn’t look that good to me.
Still north of 1%. Do we think there is significant undercounting of the cases in vax pop, moreso than unvax/prevax pop? If vax breakthrough pop skew young, then age-adjusted vax CFR worsens.
I am starting to worry.
It’s difficult to know the full extent of “breakthrough” Covid cases because cases in vaccinated people tend to be mild or asymptomatic and could go easily go unnoticed, but figures collected by NBC News has found that at least 125,000 fully vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid and 1,400 of those have died. Still, the 125,682 “breakthrough” cases in 38 states found by NBC News represented less than 0.08% of the 164.2 million-plus people (and counting) who have been fully vaccinated since the start of the year, or about one in every 1,300.
“CFR”?
Case fatality rate, i think. But I’m guessing, too. That matches the numbers.
Vaccinated Americans skew a lot older than unvaccinated Americans, so a raw case fatality rate of 1% sounds plausible. I’d love to see the breakdown by age.
And i wish the CDC were collecting freaking data. They explicitly decided not to collect data on mild cases of vaccinated people, for reasons…i have no clue what reasons.
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Case Fatality Rate
Where have you been for the last 20 months?
Some of us don’t do acronyms.
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Ah, yes, that makes sense. Now if we only knew break-through age distribution to reassure me
And yes, CFR in this context is Case Fatality Rate.
Ahem 
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Because nobody cares if you get a mild case? And most people aren’t going to get tested without good reason?
There will be lots of people who never test positive because they never get tested. Why would they? They got vaccinated, they haven’t changed their behavior much, and if the symptoms are mild, why would they test?
I don’t think “mild case” data is going to be very useful.
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