# Contest! Predict the 2020 Swing State Winners and Margins! **URL:** \ **Category:** Political Topics\ **Tags:** Contest\ **Created:** [November 2, 2020, 2:55pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798 "2020-11-02T14:55:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/mayanactuary/32/8794_2.png) [@MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/u/MayanActuary)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 2:55pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/1 "2020-11-02T14:55:12Z")
Now is the time to document that you knew exactly what was going to happen before it did. The winner will be the one that can truly unskew the polls, find those hidden Trump voters, and help us really know how to factor in yard sign counts to the final results. Low information predictor? Feel free to look at 538, RealClearPolitics, The Economist, [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com), or your favorite pollsters results (Trafalgar!). Only one thing is certain - the polls will be wrong, but you get to decide which direction and by how much. **How to Play and Scoring** I have included every state listed as a “toss-up” by RealClearPolitics. By each state list the winner and the margin. For example, if you think Biden will win Florida by 3 you would put Biden +3 next to Florida. For each state where you correctly predict the winner you will get 10 points minus the difference between your margin and the actual margin. For example, if Florida actually came in at Biden +1 you would get 10-2 = 8 points. Scoring is floored at 1 point, so if you are off by 10+% but chose the right winner, you still get 1 point. If you chose the wrong winner you get 0 points for the state. All percentages are rounded to the nearest percent. Preliminary scoring on Wednesday, final scoring next week some time. Winner gets to ask Serena for a special flair. Tiebreakers - 1. Number of correct states. 2. Closest State Prediction. If tied, 2nd closest prediction etc. through all states 3. Earliest time of entry. **Entries must be submitted by 6PM ET on Tuesday** | State | Winner | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | | | | Florida | | | | Georgia | | | | Iowa | | | | Michigan | | | | Minnesota | | | | Nevada | | | | North Carolina | | | | Ohio | | | | Pennsylvania | | | | Texas | | | | Wisconsin | | | | Bonus two points each - predict just the winner of: | | | | NE-02 | | | | ME-02 | | | ---
**Author:** ![MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/mayanactuary/32/8794_2.png) [@MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/u/MayanActuary)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 2:57pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/2 "2020-11-02T14:57:02Z")
Reserved ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 4:00pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/3 "2020-11-02T16:00:32Z")
> [@MayanActuary](#): > > If you chose the wrong winner you get 0 points for the state. Ouch. So let’s say that A ends up winning a state in a dead heat, margin is 0% after rounding (think Florida in 2000). You predict B +0. I predict A +6. Your margin was exactly correct and you get 0 points because you picked the wrong winner. My margin was off by 6% and I get 4 points. You made a _much_ better prediction than I did but I outscore you. Regardless, I will still probably participate. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/mayanactuary/32/8794_2.png) [@MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/u/MayanActuary)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:04pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/4 "2020-11-02T17:04:07Z")
I thought about that, scoring based on distance from actual result, but in the end decided that since states are winner take all, winner is more important than margin. And glad that you will play! I’ll probably post my entry later today - I think trying to read tea leaves in the middle of election day itself is going to be more noise than helpful for predictions. ---
**Author:** ![Bing](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/b/839c29/32.png) [@Bing](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Bing)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:13pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/7 "2020-11-02T17:13:15Z")
| State | Winner | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | B | 2 | | Florida | B | 3 | | Georgia | B | 1 | | Iowa | T | 2 | | Maine | B | 5 | | Michigan | B | 8 | | Minnesota | B | 8 | | Nebraska | T | 2 | | Nevada | B | 5 | | North Carolina | B | 2 | | Ohio | T | 1 | | Pennsylvania | B | 6 | | Texas | T | 1 | | Wisconsin | B | 10 | Bonus two points each - predict just the winner of: NE-02 B ME-02 B ---
**Author:** ![MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/mayanactuary/32/8794_2.png) [@MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/u/MayanActuary)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:15pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/8 "2020-11-02T17:15:49Z")
First entry! And I just realized my state list has Maine and Nebraska in there… when I meant to put just those congressional districts at the bottom. I’m going to remove those two states since the state as a whole is not a swing state. Sorry about that! ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:46pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/9 "2020-11-02T17:46:06Z")
> [@MayanActuary](#): > > since states are winner take all, winner is more important than margin. True. Maybe a 2 point bonus for getting the right winner? So in my scenario you’d get 10 points for having the correct margin and 0 points for picking the winner since you chose wrong. I’d have 4 points for being off by 6 in the margin and another 2 for having the right winner. MayanActuary: 10 twig93: 6 Just random thoughts… your game you set the rules and I will play regardless. ---
**Author:** ![MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/mayanactuary/32/8794_2.png) [@MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/u/MayanActuary)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:49pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/10 "2020-11-02T17:49:21Z")
I think I’ll keep the scoring as is… but I’ll review after the fact to see how alternate margin scorings would have changed the results. ---
**Author:** ![MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/mayanactuary/32/8794_2.png) [@MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/u/MayanActuary)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:54pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/11 "2020-11-02T18:54:35Z")
My official entry. I’m going big. | State | Winner | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | Biden | +6 | | Florida | Biden | +1 | | Georgia | Biden | +2 | | Iowa | Biden | +1 | | Michigan | Biden | +8 | | Minnesota | Biden | +10 | | Nevada | Biden | +6 | | North Carolina | Biden | +5 | | Ohio | Trump | +1 | | Pennsylvania | Biden | +5 | | Texas | Biden | +0 | | Wisconsin | Biden | +10 | Bonus two points each - predict just the winner of: NE-02 - Biden ME-02 - Biden ---
**Author:** ![LuckyHat](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/l/e68b1a/32.png) [@LuckyHat](https://community.goactuary.com/u/LuckyHat)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:59pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/12 "2020-11-02T18:59:52Z")
| State | Winner | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | T | 0 | | Florida | T | 1 | | Georgia | T | 2 | | Iowa | T | 4 | | Maine | B | 3 | | Michigan | B | 1 | | Minnesota | B | 3 | | Nebraska | T | 4 | | Nevada | B | 0 | | North Carolina | T | 1 | | Ohio | T | 3 | | Pennsylvania | T | 0 | | Texas | T | 4 | | Wisconsin | B | 2 | Bonus two points each - predict just the winner of: NE-02 B ME-02 T ---
**Author:** ![J0EBL0W](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/j0ebl0w/32/933_2.png) [@J0EBL0W](https://community.goactuary.com/u/J0EBL0W)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 8:02pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/13 "2020-11-02T20:02:49Z")
| State | Winner | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | Biden | +2 | | Florida | Biden | +2 | | Georgia | Biden | +0 | | Iowa | Trump | +0 | | Michigan | Biden | +7 | | Minnesota | Biden | +10 | | Nevada | Biden | +4 | | North Carolina | Biden | +0 | | Ohio | Trump | +2 | | Pennsylvania | Biden | +1 | | Texas | Trump | +2 | | Wisconsin | Biden | +5 | Bonus two points each - predict just the winner of: NE-02 - Biden ME-02 - Biden ---
**Author:** ![YankeeTripper](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/yankeetripper/32/946_2.png) [@YankeeTripper](https://community.goactuary.com/u/YankeeTripper)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 8:23pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/14 "2020-11-02T20:23:23Z")
State Winner Margin Arizona Biden 1 Florida Trump 2 Georgia Trump 3 Iowa Trump 4 Michigan Biden 5 Minnesota Biden 5 Nevada Biden 1 North Carolina Trump 1 Ohio Trump 2 Pennsylvania Biden 2 but constested Texas Trump 4 Wisconsin Biden 4 Bonus two points each - predict just the winner of: NE-02 Biden ME-02 Biden ---
**Author:** ![Lucy](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/lucy/32/8802_2.png) [@Lucy](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Lucy)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 10:28pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/15 "2020-11-02T22:28:09Z")
Ugh! This is painful. But I’m a masochist, so maybe I’ll try entering tomorrow morning. ---
**Author:** ![IPD](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/ipd/32/179_2.png) [@IPD](https://community.goactuary.com/u/IPD)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 2:17pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/16 "2020-11-03T14:17:46Z")
I generally refrain from talking politics for mental health, but I can’t say no to a contest. | State | Winner | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | Biden | +1 | | Florida | Biden | +0 | | Georgia | Trump | +1 | | Iowa | Trump | +0 | | Michigan | Biden | +9 | | Minnesota | Biden | +12 | | Nevada | Biden | +4 | | North Carolina | Biden | +0 | | Ohio | Trump | +1 | | Pennsylvania | Biden | +3 | | Texas | Trump | +1 | | Wisconsin | Biden | +7 | Bonus two points each - predict just the winner of: NE-02 - Biden ME-02 - Biden ---
**Author:** ![urysohn](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/urysohn/32/24_2.png) [@urysohn](https://community.goactuary.com/u/urysohn)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 3:43pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/17 "2020-11-03T15:43:06Z")
| State | Winner | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | Biden | 1 | | Florida | Biden | 3 | | Georgia | Trump | 0 | | Iowa | Trump | 3 | | Michigan | Biden | 4 | | Minnesota | Biden | 9 | | Nevada | Biden | 7 | | North Carolina | Biden | 1 | | Ohio | Trump | 2 | | Pennsylvania | Biden | 2 | | Texas | Biden | 1 | | Wisconsin | Biden | 5 | Bonus two points each - predict just the winner of: NE-02 Biden ME-02 Biden Trump pulls out Ohio and Iowa, but Biden manages to snag Texas. I just want it to be true so much that I can’t pick against it. ---
**Author:** ![MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/mayanactuary/32/8794_2.png) [@MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/u/MayanActuary)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 4:04pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/18 "2020-11-03T16:04:01Z")
Entries to date. | State | Actual | Urysohn | IPD | YankTrip | JoeBlow | LuckyHat | Mayan | Bing | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | ? | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -0 | 6 | 2 | | Florida | ? | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 3 | | Georgia | ? | -0 | -1 | -3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 1 | | Iowa | ? | -3 | -0 | -4 | -0 | -4 | 1 | -2 | | Michigan | ? | 4 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 8 | | Minnesota | ? | 9 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 8 | | Nevada | ? | 7 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 5 | | North Carolina | ? | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 2 | | Ohio | ? | -2 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -3 | -1 | -1 | | Pennsylvania | ? | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -0 | 5 | 6 | | Texas | ? | 1 | -1 | -4 | -2 | -4 | 0 | -1 | | Wisconsin | ? | 5 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 10 | | NE-02 | ? | B | B | B | B | B | B | B | | ME-02 | ? | B | B | B | B | T | B | B | Still missing @Lucy and @1695814 and anyone else that wants to play. Get 'em in before 6PM ET! ---
**Author:** ![A\_Student](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/f05b48/32.png) [@A\_Student](https://community.goactuary.com/u/A_Student)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 5:56pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/19 "2020-11-03T17:56:19Z")
| State | Winner | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | B | 1 | | Florida | T | 3 | | Georgia | T | 4 | | Iowa | T | 6 | | Michigan | B | 1 | | Minnesota | B | 6 | | Nevada | B | 2 | | North Carolina | T | 3 | | Ohio | T | 5 | | Pennsylvania | B | 1 | | Texas | T | 2 | | Wisconsin | B | 6 | | Bonus two points each - predict just the winner of: | | | | NE-02 T | | | | ME-02 B | | | Just because… ---
**Author:** ![soyleche](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/soyleche/32/42_2.png) [@soyleche](https://community.goactuary.com/u/soyleche)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 6:05pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/20 "2020-11-03T18:05:10Z")
| State | Winner | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | B | 2 | | Florida | B | 0 | | Georgia | B | 1 | | Iowa | T | 2 | | Michigan | B | 8 | | Minnesota | B | 8 | | Nevada | B | 6 | | North Carolina | B | 1 | | Ohio | T | 2 | | Pennsylvania | B | 6 | | Texas | T | 4 | | Wisconsin | B | 6 | Bonus two points each - predict just the winner of: NE-02 B ME-02 B ---
**Author:** ![Lucy](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/lucy/32/8802_2.png) [@Lucy](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Lucy)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 6:11pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/21 "2020-11-03T18:11:31Z")
> [@MayanActuary](#): > > Still missing @Lucy I decided not to play. Too depressing/anxiety-inducing to engage that closely today. ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 6:30pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798/22 "2020-11-03T18:30:59Z")
| State | Winner | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | Trump | +1 | | Florida | Trump | +0 | | Georgia | Trump | +1 | | Iowa | Trump | +3 | | Michigan | Biden | +5 | | Minnesota | Biden | +6 | | Nevada | Biden | +2 | | North Carolina | Trump | +1 | | Ohio | Trump | +2 | | Pennsylvania | Biden | +3 | | Texas | Trump | +3 | | Wisconsin | Biden | +4 | Bonus two points each - predict just the winner of: NE-02 - Biden ME-02 - Biden [Next page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/contest-predict-the-2020-swing-state-winners-and-margins/798.md?page=2)