So you’re intending 4C for February, too?
My gut says 3NT or Pass, and lean 3NT
Basically yes. Enough HCP, but poor placement of honors (such as the stiff club ace).
District 4 MSC is usually very generous scoring for the non-winning choice. Note that 3H (clearly nonforcing) scored the same as 4C. 3H was listed before 4C, but I suspect that just means bids with the same score are listed in cheapest bid first order rather than in perceived merit order.
Here is the explanation of the scoring https://files.constantcontact.com/2bd6acd1101/9b2f4243-b260-4959-ad41-a51069fcf664.pdf?rdr=true
We are vulnerable at imps, So I suspect Pass will get very few votes, probably 0. 3NT may get some votes, might even win at matchpoints. It could be right at imps, but 5D is often safer, and we could have a slam if partner has a stiff club. So I suspect 3NT will not win the voting.
That article is really interesting. Can you post it every month?
Sure, but you may well have to remind me. It is online every month.
If you want to find them yourself, or look for prior months, consult this link
That’s the archive of newsletters for ACBL District 4. The D4 MSC is usually mentioned relatively early in each letter (always is there somewhere). I checked one at random, and the link for the May 2024 explanations is still active. You could review this thread for problems you are interested in, and then consult the relevant newsletter to see the explanation.
Note that the newsletter also has the link to enter the current month’s contest, which is always http://d4msc.straguzzi.org/
You don’t have to be a district 4 member to enter (I think, but am not sure, you have to be a D4 member to win free entries for 2 sessions by winning the contest for the year). The moderator normally quotes something from the comments of each person who enters (or perhaps lists their name with the statement that their comment was similar to some else’s quoted comment). Comments are not mandatory, and I don’t pay enough attention to know whether he ever reveals your choice when you didn’t comment.
[ETA: my comments for Jan 2025 weren’t quoted, but that’s because I entered after his deadline for writing his commentary]
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As noted, any action chosen by anyone was worth at least 80.
Link to report: https://files.constantcontact.com/2bd6acd1101/76e37312-1b1f-4ae9-98f3-2a2ec1b77749.pdf?rdr=true
Shades of this month’s Bridge World MSC problem D, except there it was 7 hearts and 4 spades, with 2 singletons. Hearts there were A1098xxx. If 4S was the winner there, and that’s how we voted, the 4S should be best here, IMO, since I think this hand is slightly more spades oriented..
So you’re jumping straight to 4S? What’s the downside to taking your time with 2C forcing? Just that they learn more about your hands and it’s a risky game?
Is his 1S bid limiting? Max 18 points since he didn’t reverse or jump shift?
For me, 2C forcing with a chance for him to show secondary heart support, plenty of room for you to show spade support and/or your additional hearts.
Wow, I sort of changed my mind. Here’s what I submitted, forgetting that I had initially preferred spades. Either way, I don’t see that 2C is going to help much. I expect we’re going to have to take a guess.
Link to results and discussion: https://files.constantcontact.com/2bd6acd1101/19c4fc6c-ab0c-4762-b53d-cafac86c1599.pdf?rdr=true
tl;dr 2C got 50 at both imps and MP. In typical D4 MSC style, almost anything else got 40. (Anything except 2C chosen by a panelist got 40. Some actions chosen by a single solver got 30.
Very interesting. A save doesn’t figure to be too expensive at any level, unless phantom. Looking WAY ahead at something that might never happen, if the opps were in a suit grand, we could beat 7S X by west if partner could find a club lead. But is there any way to facilitate that outcome? Are we sure we should save against any other contract?
Leaning toward bidding diamonds now and hearts later, but very conflicted. Maybe lots of hearts now. A club jump now?
My instinct was 4H, but I am likely underestimating just how strong at least one opponents hand is, if not both. And therefore an even further preempt may be of value. 5H? But what does that imply? At the table, knowing nothing else, I’d bid 4H, and be willing to take it to 6H, probably.
Some easy comparisons, IMO: we would rather be in 5H X vs defending 4S (which would always make). And rather be in 6H X rather than defending 4S (which will almost always make).
The big complication is that they may be able to make 6S or [if their hearts are not 1-1] 7C, or even 7S unless played by West on a club lead. So we might prefer that West declares. If I bid 3D now, West may bid spades immediately. Then I can sacrifice in hearts up to 6H, with the hope of beating it if partner can cash the heart ace and find a club ruff (or can cash the heart ace and has a club trick). If either opponent has cue bid hearts (even though some chance the cue bid was only a singleton), I think bidding 7H as sac is a good idea if West is declarer in 6S (where I expect I would beat 7S X). And 7H as a sac over 7C by either.
Showing a lot a red cards will help them play it if partner has Qxx of clubs.
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I can’t feel very good about these.
Yuck. An opening bid and partner doubled. But partner is a passed hand. Game might conceivably make, but it’s matchpoints so i’ll go conservative. But how? I’m leaning toward 1NT, likely best if partner has any spade honor even the 10, or if he doesn’t have 4 hearts. (Maybe that’s "AND he doesn’t have 4 hearts), but NT could well be best when he does have 4 hearts and at least the spade 10.)
1NT scored 100. As usual, any action chosen by at least 1 person, panelist or solver, scored at least 80.
