Bridge: 2021 District 4 MSC (now also 2024)

We aren’t playing bots, and both sides are guessing some. Maybe West has almost no defense against our vul 4H game, so he takes a 4S sacrifice, hoping he won’t be set 700, but it’s only a small loss if he is, a small gain if he goes for 500, and a big gain if he goes for only 100 or 300. And of course if he isn’t doubled, a huge gain even if he goes down 4. I don’t think we can risk letting him escape undoubled. If by chance he’s making, the double probably costs an extra 170, since he’s in game either way. Or more than that if he redoubles and makes (and we sat for the redouble, which I probably would but might not.)

West will not expect us to have raised on a singleton. If he has 3 small hearts, he may be picturing a singleton in partner. He’ll be disappointed.

If it’s matchpoints, the raw score difference matters less. If we aren’t going to risk 5H, and we think 4S will usually not make, we should try to increase the size of our plus by doubling. +100 instead of +50 is large at matchpoints, as is +300 instead of +100.

The considerations would be significantly more complex if we think the double of 4S will help declarer in the play. E.g. if double leads to down 1 while passing leads to down 2, then the double gains nothing (but also costs nothing).

Thanks to VVV (if it’s right) for pointing out the possible merits of 5D.

Double on A scored 40 (chosen by 4 panelists and 11 solvers). Pass (chosen by 6 panelists and 14 solvers) got 50.

On B, pass (with 8 panelist and 19 solver voltes) scored 50. Everything else (Double, 5D and 5H) score 40. 5D was chosen by 2 panelists and 2 solvers.

This eliminates me from any chance for the yearly title, but I’ll post the December problem anyway.

I submitted these answers, but could freely change them until Nov 20

spoilertext

Problem set: December 2022
Respondent: Steve White (D4)

Problem 1A
Steve White: Seven hearts. A reasonable shot, when partner has neither the king nor jack of clubs. He surely has AQ third of hearts (not just AQ tight) since 3S promised a stopper not a suit, and partner has a diamond stopper. 7NT might make too, but any grand should be fine score and 7H more likely to make (e.g. partner has Kx of diamonds)

Problem 1B
Steve White: Six notrump. Not worth the risk that 7 goes down. 6NT is an extra 10 points (tongue in cheek; I don’t 10 points is an imp vs any feasible result at the other table). 6NT is slightly more likely to make, since with the club jack I should be able to set up clubs if necessary, and 6H could go down on a bad trump break.

Why can’t partner have xxx AQ K AQxxxxx?

And it seems he can also have x AQJ KQ Axxxxxx. Or do you think he should rebid 2D with that?

He could have either of those, but he might not have either of those. Do you have better bids to suggest than the ones I have tentatively chosen?

Yes

And they are? My deadline for changing is Nov 20, but I have no chance to win this year even if I get 100 this month.

I would bid 6H on the first problem. Too many thing can go wrong in 7H. On the other hand, 6H has considerably better chances of an overtrick than 6N has. In general i think its close between 6H and 6N but i think 6H is slightly safer as partner’s clubs can be pretty gnarly if 7 long.

At the table I might well bid only 6H on the first, but in a bidding contest, when my choice will be public and when I have no chance on winning no matter what, it is a no-brainer that I’m going to appear aggressive.

At matchpoints, 6N was worth 50, beating 6H among panelists 5-4. 7H, with no panelist votes, was worth 30. At imps, it was 6H beating 6N 5-4.

Screen Shot 2022-11-30 at 10.13.16 PM

It does seem like a close choice, but only a 2-way choice between 1NT and 1H. I see very little merit to double or pass. Leaning toward 1NT.

I’d see a lot of merit to pass if it were both ratger than neither. I prefer 1N to 1H holding K10x of spades, only four hearts and the lowest heart is only the 7, not the 8 or 9.

By the way, is there a second question?

Nope. 100 points riding on one call.

That’s a gross misrepresentation. In the District 4 MSC, any call chosen even by only one solver will get at least 50 (my impression, not a formal rule), and with typical scoring any call that is not off the wall will get at least 70. I will not be surprised if each of P, Double, 1H and 1NT gets at least 80. So unless I lose my mind, 30 points max are riding on the call.

Vindicated. Here is the scoring:
Screenshot 2023-01-01 at 9.31.42 AM

I was right that no one got less than 70. 2D (Michaels by the convention card) seems off the walll to me, but even it got 70.

Since the panelists had a clear preference for 1H over 1NT, I think 1H should have gotten 100, but I’ll accept the points.

My current thinking:
What was the author smoking when he posted 1A? Won’t there be unanimous agreement with the pass? (Not much chance of that opinion changing)

1B is harder, but there are only two reasonable choices IMO: 2D and 2S. While I would greatly prefer a third diamond even for the delayed raise, it seems right, especially since able to ruff the third club in our hand. 2S could work better, especially at matchpoints, but partner might convert.

The other danger to 2D is that partner might compete to 3D over 3C.

The initial pass is fine–it’s the normal action. I don’t think 1S is ridiculous, but I’d only do it playing a light-opening system like Precision.

I’m surprised we’re not doubling 1H (spades plus diamond tolerance), and given not doubling 1H, 2D seems mandatory now. However, I wonder what double would mean? After all, if opener is 4=3=3=3 and partner is 2=2=5=4, I’d like to defend 2CX. I suspect, though, that this would sound more like a stiff diamond since we failed to double 1H. So, sadly, 2D.

I’ll ask my Precision partner about that. We open most 11 HCP hands but I don’t think he would open this hand. Same shape but with the diamond J moved into either major, either a definite opening or a probable opening, but the jack in a long suit with high honor is a lot more valuable. Put the jack in a major but make it 4 spade, 5 hearts, probably drops it to OK to open, better to pass.