2026 FIFA World Cup Discussion

The Sandbox Sports
748

https://www.espn.com/soccer/worldcup/story/_/id/48686530/world-cup-hassles-expenses

TL;DR: Nope. It isn’t.
Stay home, don’t travel.
Local folks: stay home, too.
Need to keep the 1994 Attendance Record intact.

The price is even worse at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, where it can cost as much as $300. All other cities charge three figures for their cheapest spots, except for Atlanta, where a spot costs $99.99.

Eff that.
Cheapest way for me to travel to SoFi is by Buses, Trains, and Automobiles (well, that is the order to get home). About $8 for the day. Two hours minimum each way.
I’d make the most of it by going early, playing poker for a few hours, hopefully winning enough to pay for a ticket (no more than $100).

Also this:

Turned off by the cost of staying in Boston, Stewart and 10,000 fellow fans are planning to descend on nearby Providence, Rhode Island, where they hope to march with bagpipes in the streets. Scottish bands will perform at local pubs. Stewart warned their owners to overstock beer.

Oh shit, I will be in Newport for a few days during that time! EDIT: no, Scotland will be in Miami when I’m there. But, pretty sure the Scots will still be around, hoping for a Round of 32 match. Gotta beat out Morocco for 2nd place. Runner-up of Group C play in Guadalupe on 6/29. qualifying Group C 3rd place team play in Foxborough, East Ruth, or Mex.City.

I’ll see if the wife wants to attend one of these one day. There is a ferry from Newport to Providence. $24 both ways, about an hour on the boat, then 14 minutes on the free shuttle.
With a fan fest, there are plenty of matches to watch, simultaneously or back-to-back.
https://pvdfanzone.com/
$25 each! Still cheaper than tix.
USA play on 6/25. Will probably be packed. Gonna watch it somewhere anyway.

The Station Park appears to be adjacent to the Mall where some local hipster artists decided to live. For FOUR YEARS. Found an unused space, filmed each other, someone fused the film together and made a documentary about it. On Netflix. Might be fun to check out.

749

My local rag has a list of local, officially sponsored fan fests:

These cost more money than staying at home and “working” while I watch.
Local British Pub will have the matches on. I can go there, eat some English or Indian) food, and not travel what seems to be about 30 miles to the nearest one to be outside in the sun, in June or July.
The Magic Johnson Park one seems nice… ok, West Compton, about the same distance as SoFi.
Local British Pub it is!

1 Like
750

Oh, will also be in Philadelphia for the day on 6/28. Fan Fest there is near the museum of art. Only one match that day: the Runner-up A v Runner-up B at SoFi. Could be MEX v CAN.

How’s Magerk’s? Anyone?

751

You mean the Morocco that finished 4th at the last World Cup and is currently ranked 8th? That Morocco?

752

Yes. It won’t be easy.
It won’t even be easy to get a favorable 3rd place point total, with BRA also in the mix.

753

Somebody’s probably already done the actuarials on this. 8 out of 12 3rd place teams go through. I think 4 points will be enough. We’ll see.

754

I thought I did. Maybe I didn’t post it, or something.
In short:

  1. It benefits teams that play well versus their 1st and 2nd place teams.
  2. Helps if those teams are on the lower end of good, relative to other Groups’ expected 1st and 2nd place teams.
  3. Helps if the 4th place teams sucks.

(Does some work, two minutes later throws all the paper in the air.)
So, it’s a toss-up. Literally.
Those third place teams are just there to fill out the bracket.
How many will win the round of 32? Guessing the The futures market has something.
Over/under is probably 1.5.

755

One World Cup had 24 teams with 16 going through and 3 points per win, so same odds. Also there have been three Euros with 16 of 24 going through.

Of the 4 tournaments, there was 1 team (Norway in 1994) that missed out with 4 points.

756

How many won the first knockout match?

757

Italy made it all the way to a penalty shoot-out in the final but I don’t know about the others.

758

Old man stands up for old man:
https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48712889/lionel-messi-brazil-neymar-one-best-world-cup

Hey, it’s Brazil, they have a shit-ton of players better than Neymar right now (I think). Don’t need any retired guys taking up spots.
I don’t think Messi should butt in on other Countries’ team selections. His logic is such that Neymar should be on the team until he dies.

759

Sheesh, even the Final is not sold out. Cuz, you know, arm-and-a-leg.
https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48707727/fifa-triples-best-available-world-cup-final-ticket-33k

760

Mexico (1st), Ireland (2nd), Italy (3rd), and Norway (4th) all finished on 4 points in 1994 Group E. So, Italy made it to the final. Argentina finished 3rd in Group D with 6 points and lost to Group A winner Romania (6 points). Belgium finished 3rd in Group F with 6 points and lost to Group C winner and defending champion Germany (7 points). USA finished 3rd in Group A with 4 points and lost to eventual champion Brazil (7 points).

If enough groups finish 6-6-6-0 then 6 points wouldn’t guarantee progress. If enough groups finish 7-7-1-1 or 9-6-1-1, then a team with 1 point would progress.

761

Winning or progressing. Penalty shootouts count as draws and you can progress from those.

If you look at 32-team World Cups, there have been cases where teams that progress to the knockouts have failed to beat teams that were eliminated in the groups. Nigeria’s only point in 2002 was against England. Algeria’s only point in 2010 was against England. Serbia finished bottom of Group D in 2010 but beat group winner Germany. Ghana’s only point in 2014 was against eventual champion Germany. In 2026, a 3rd-placed team could be a similar calibre team to those eliminated in the groups of 32-team World Cups. A team like England could draw and get knocked out in a penalty shoot-out to them.

762

Certainly those are mathematical possibilities but extreme edge cases. I did a quick search for data on 24-team tournaments (with 3 points for the win) and found 12 tournaments (1 mens world cup, 2 womens world cups and then continental mens cups for Africa, Asia and Europe). I didn’t include 16 or 32 team tournaments as the incentives (top two vs still having a chance in 3rd) are a bit different.

Of these 12, only one had a case of a 4-point team missing out (the 1994 World Cup you mentioned). Interestingly, that was a 4th-placed team that missed out, meaning no 3rd place team has missed out if they had 4 or more points. That was also the only tournament that the last team to qualify for the knockout rounds had 4 points. Every other tournament the last team had 3 points, except for Africa 2025, where a team qualified with 2 points.

As far as working out the odds of missing out as a 3rd-placed team with 4 points, we have 72 data points and of those, 25 had 4 or more points. So, in a 48 team tournament, what are the odds of a 25/72 event happening at least 9 of 12 iterations? I think it’s (25/72)^12 + 12 * (25/72)^11 * 47/72 + 66 * (25/72)^10 * (47/72)^2 + 220 * (25/72)^9 * (47/72)^3 = 0.5% but my probability is a bit rusty.

763

Top 15 from ESPN group-think of reporters.
Not enough of them seemed to think that USMNT are that good.

Good news is that none of the top 15 are in USMNT’s group. Nor are any of MEX’s and CAN’s groups. The privilege of hosting, I guess. That means this Power 15 list is strewn across the other nine groups.
Odds of one of them not advancing? I mean, at least one of them will have a bad two weeks. 1 in 30, maybe.

764

Cool, old people playing the halftime show.
https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48766295/madonna-shakira-bts-headline-world-cup-final-half-show

A few years back some classic rock bands all played together in Indio, CA. They called it “Old-chella.”

Anyway, need to start planning a viewing party for the Final. Wife is having a surgery a few days before, though.
Minimalist: out on my back porch alone, about 30 minutes delayed, reading a book or doing puzzles. It’s a Sunday, so the Daily Crossword should suffice until the first water break.
Maximalist: out on my back porch with 20 or 30 folks, beer, wine, and liquor flowing. Lots of prep work, by myself, since wife is laid up.
Alternative: find somewhere else to watch.
Hmm, wonder where on this spectrum, I’ll land.

765

No Neil Young? FIFA must be too corporate for him.

766

Neymar made it.

767

I doubt Canada will ever host another World Cup after this debacle.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/world-cup-cost-funding-report-pbo-9.7205647