Oh actually predictit has a trader limit, so can’t bet directly. Maybe could spread money over swing states
I was also wondering if one could establish some kind of arbitrage by looking at the implied prob for swing states and then deriving the implied probability for the general election. This is hard to do unless you assume the outcomes in each swing state are independent, which is frankly a dubious assumption.
I last voted in 2012. One of the things this uncertainty has caused for me is make it seem like my vote my actually mean something.
Special version of graphic innumeracy. The numbers and the word conclusion are consistent, but the image is not.
I know that I’ll be going to bed Tuesday night without knowing who the victor is.
I also know that if Trump isn’t a clear victor in the swing states by end-of-day Wednesday, there will be lawsuits out the wazoo.
Are you in one of the swing states?
If the answer is “no”…your vote still doesn’t mean all that much.
(That’s why I was comfortable voting for Oliver.)
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Note: DJT stock was at $40 after both the first debate and after the first assassination attempt. It hit $56 after a set of favorable polls last weekend. It’s now at $30. The low was $12 when Harris had all the momentum.
What’s the 50/50 price point?
The 50/50 number is just a reflection of the volatility of the stock. It doesn’t mean the actual probability is 50/50, just means that nobody really knows what the actual odds are. in other words, people have given up on polling.
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I guess my point is the stock is probably worthless if Trump loses but might be worth $x if he wins. DJT is effectively it’s own prediction market and should be more efficient than polymarket or the others. We should be able to get an implied chance of winning from option prices, right?
Remember that in the black scholes formula, you can only derive the implied volatility not the actual expected return. So think of it like that. If you assume the volatility is high in DJT, then the uncertainty around the election results is high, which means polling is not accurate. The question becomes: if uncertainty is high, what will the betting markets converge to? And the answer is 50/50. And that’s actually what’s happening.
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Nope.
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Did you do the exams before these came in like me? I learnt these things when I moved to investments.
Oh, it was on the exams along with a lot of other crap I have since forgotten.
I know that “MY CLEVER TIPS” meant something at one point and that was one that I used on the exam.
Been stewing on this. You have framed it in a way I understand now.
It makes sense that if you don’t have any evidence to take a directional position then you need to hedge by taking an even split.
Would be interesting to hear a longer clip, but apparently Trump doesn’t think women are human beings. Perhaps he mangled his words as usual…
He was thinking about huwoman beings.
I’ll be paying special attention to DJT stock as we approach tuesday. If volatility is very high without any real direction in the stock, this means nobody knows anything. If volatility is low but the stock doesnt really move in any one direction then it means the probability is actually 50/50 and we will have a close race. If volatility is low and the stock moves in a specific direction then we have ourselves a winner. Seeing as Trump is a whale in the stock, he is going to buy or sell depending on what he thinks is going to happen.
You can check the implied volatility:
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Why does it have to “mean something”?
There are lots of down ballot elections. It’s not like one only votes for President.