Nice summary. But I like looking at the trends not just the actual numbers and all the trends are favoring Trump. Harris is underperforming compared to Biden and Clinton with Black men by quite a bit. Look at this:
All the betting markets are moving in Trump’s favor as well. Trump is trading at 58cents on predictit and rising. On Polymarket he’s at 62% and rising.
I just don’t see any evidence that Harris is going to run away with this thing.
Friday night update…
Using Polymarket, my prediction is …
| D | R | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| 226 | 312 | 86 |
538:
| D | R | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| 267 | 271 | 4 |
270:
| D | R | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| 251 | 287 | 36 |
RCP:
| D | R | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| 226 | 312 | 86 |
Looks like Oddschecker’s summary of the betting market puts the election odds at around 60/40 Trump.
I think 60/40 in favor of Trump is realistic.
Fun facts about the Electoral College (might as well put it here):
The one conviction the delegates could all agree on was that the president must not be a monarch who stood above the law. (The recent Supreme Court decision, Trump vs. United States, fragrantly defied that core conviction.)
I thought something smelled like 
.
NYtimes has the 7 swing states tighening up. Harris formally had <1 for 5 of the states - now 4 of them are even. Looks like it’s getting tighter in Georgia and Arizona though.
At the national level, that poll has Trump at 48% vs Harris at 48%. In 2016, they had Trump at 41%, he ended up with 46%. Then in 2020 they had Trump at 41% and he ended up at 46%. So the polling is typically biased towards Harris, well at least this poll.
The polls are going to be wrong, the only questions is in what direction? Those states were between +3 Biden to +1 Trump in the last election,
Turnout is going to be the deciding factor.
Harris will win NV, narrowly I think, possibly on late arriving mail-in ballots. I’m curious whether they will keep count of late arriving ballots without postmark as the NV Supreme Court recently allowed to be tabulated.
I think Harris also wins MI and NC. Democrats are funding increases in UOCAVA registrations, which apparently do not require a SSN or ID in some circumstances. About 938k UOCAVA ballots were cast in 2020 and the DNC says there are potentially 9,000k UOCAVA available (links below). The RNC recently lost lawsuits seeking to prevent UOCAVA registrations in MI and NC for citizens abroad who never lived in either state. I’m curious to see UOCAVA counts this cycle in total and in MI and NC. It would also be interesting to see how many registered without any ID. I suspect we won’t get this info, which would feel a little suspicious, particularly if UOCAVA votes increase dramatically.
Also NC, which is already purple, had much of its western Republican-held areas devastated by Helene. Something else to keep an eye on…,
Seems like not the brightest idea for the RNC to reduce military votes?
I assume Captain Bonespurs does less well among military, especially overseas military, than previous Republicans. Even so, it does seem like a very strange tactic.
It would be reasonable to assume that soldiers do not like a draft-dodging elite who disrespects veterans, pows, and kia, has never touched a gun, has no coherent foreign policy, and lacks basic knowledge about the armed forces… But you should know better than that.
Trump is around 60/40 among vets.
McCain (who staunchly supported the military and received like a dozen metals for heroism in battle) was around 55/45 with vets.
Interesting… I would not have guessed that.
I suppose military is disproportionally black so that may be more pro-Obama than anti-McCain.
How did W do with vets?
Didn’t McCain have some resentment among vets for allegations that he received and accepted favorable treatment as a POW by virtue of his being the son of a high-profile admiral? (And it should be noted that those allegations were disputed, if not debunked, but still persisted.)
I also wouldn’t be surprised if political preference among vets might be slightly different than among active-duty troops, due to the passage of time, and increased exposure to the fodder that fuels the civilian personality cult for Trump, versus being the grunts/cannon fodder who bore the brunt of Trump’s whims as commander-in-chief.
I can’t find meaningful exit polls. Here’s Pew’s thoughts on 2004 and 2000, both times a lot less popular than Trump.
Again, I think the error is in assuming what Trump says or does matters, rather than what he vaguely symbolizes, and just how much Republicans hate Democrats right now.
I found this, focusing on active duty troops, from 2020:
Between that article and another linked from it, it is possible to compare late/end-of-term favorability ratings on Trump vs Obama:
…but I’m not finding anything on MT for the 2024 election, or favorability ratings of Biden.
I suspect, given the passage of time, turnover among enlisted troops, and the demographics of the military, Trump is probably ahead among enlisted troops, but views are less-lopsided among officers.
I think it’s generally understood that if Trump and Harris are close at the national level then Trump is very likely to win the election.
The Trump strategy is to get out the vote with people who are usually low information white guys. But I think a big part of the appeal is the entertainment value of Trump, which was quite high in 2016, since he was a newcomer to politics. But now that people know Trump, he’s old and boring. Always saying the same stuff. He’s like a comedian who always has the same jokes.
I also think turnout for Harris will be stronger than expected with some groups that tended to vote for Trump in the past. I’m thinking about the Bernie bros who voted for Trump in the past, these guys hate Elon Musk. They might vote for Harris this time. Then there are all the white women who usually vote republican and voted for Haley. They might also vote for Harris. And then Trump has recently insulted a lot of Puerto Ricans.
There are some areas of concern as well for Harris, particularly with black and latino men. So what we have are many competing forces which will most likely result in a very close election. But my gut is telling me that people will do the right thing and Harris will narrowly win this thing. I hope I am right.
I want the right to go into an existential crisis. They have nothing to offer me a centrist.
And I look at abortion talks like Taliban talk. Keep your beliefs to yourself.
