Either today or tomorrow - or some point soon, depending on when the transaction closes - at least 22 NHL teams - 24, based on one count I saw - will have to go figure out how to run cap scenarios because their default choice, the one people have come to rely on for years, will shut down operations after being purchased by Ted Leonsis and the Washington Capitals.
No, I’m not surprised by this. If anything, I’m kind of surprised it’s 24. It really should be 0 except NHL front offices are lazy and full of bloat … but, I suspect that may be true for sports front offices in general.
Background: way before CapFriendly existed, before Matthew Wuest launched CapGeek, I had the first site that tracked the NHL’s salary cap. I ran it off a spot on Yahoo!'s Geocities, then moved it to a private site. I did that from 2005-2010, when Wuest built his site with most of the functionality I wanted but never had time to build out. In the time I had my site, I had numerous e-mails from NHL front offices and certain individuals in the media asking questions about the cap and asking about various cap scenarios.
This wasn’t a surprise to me; it’s 2006, 2007, everyone’s trying to figure out the cap, I’d spent extensive time learning it and asking questions, I’d established myself as a resource in certain corners of the internet. What did surprise me was that (1) after a few years, it didn’t seem like anyone was building this stuff out themselves for their own research, and (2) no one ever said “holy shit, you know a hell of a lot about the cap, come work for us, we need this kind of knowledge in our organization.” Even in early 2006, I was saying “management of the cap is going to be a critical thing, teams who figure this out early will have a huge advantage over everyone else.”
Fast forward to about 2011 or 2012, when teams were rushing to claim they had a capologist doing this stuff. No, what they had was someone who was going out to public sites and doing the same stuff you or I would do. They weren’t building new tools, and they weren’t doing informed analysis. They were going out to a website to see what it said and reporting back this one site says _____, so it has to be right. Which, for all the work I did, Matthew did and others did, no - none of us had things exactly right. But, like actuaries, we were directionally close. That worked for most things, but might not work in situations where a team is trying to execute a trade with virtually no margin of error for cap space. But, teh cap site says ____, and we’ve got a capologist who used teh cap site, so they’re teh expert and so we’re teh expert. That’s where teams having stuff built out for themselves would have been invaluable.
Which brings us to today. The fact that most teams haven’t built an archive of data that they can analyze and were instead relying on API calls to a site to get data is … well, like I said, not shocking at all. These are the same teams who breathlessly sing the praises of their analytics, which they claim help them be successful, which no one has ever demonstrated that teh analytics gives an advantage that’s not otherwise explainable by “drafting high because the team sucked for years” and “lots of talent + winning attracted lots of talent” and certainly hasn’t been explained as the distinguishing factor in success aside from a coach or coaches “acting from the gut” or making moves based on experience that’s not grounded in teh analytics.
But, we’ve got the mostest bestester analytics, huuray us, we’re teh awesomerers and teams are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars getting data. hoping someone can interpret it correctly. Cap construction and forward planning of a team - you know, the basics that help plan future roster construction in a cap world? That’s maybe 5th or 6th on the list of importance, right after “find a job for this ex-NHLer so they’ve got a post-playing retirement gig so they can get paid to do not a whole lot.”
Shouldn’t the NHL have this system up? Yeah, it should. When I quit doing cap stuff, the league still had no plans to build something out. At last check, it still doesn’t. Otherwise, teams wouldn’t be using API calls to a public website to get that information. [Add this to "things the NHL should be doing, but doesn’t, that are inexcusable.]
Can teams build this out themselves? Yeah, they can. Every team is kept up to date on active contracts, transactions to/from the NHL, roster designations and the like. Considering there’s been at least 6 sites that tracked the cap, it shouldn’t be that difficult to find someone to replicate it using the data teams get at least every week [contracts] or day [transactions]. Will they? Probably not, they’ll wait for the next website to come along and do their work and then have their “capologist” do the point-and-click thing hoping they know what they’re doing and the website knows what it’s doing.