2023 NFL Football thread

Which 49ers? I’ve seen two articles today where their HC talked about understanding the OT situation and decided how they would choose if they won the OT coin toss.

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The rule that seems to confuse people is the 1st OT would flow into the 2nd OT like Q1 into Q2 - but didn’t really matter - that would have helped SF, defending the paly as it could end the game

I get having 10 minutes on the clock in OT in the regular season and having it count down, because a game can end in a tie.

In the playoffs? Other than saying “here’s how long the game has gone in OT” and having a break if somehow they play 2 OT and no one scores, it’s pointless to have timed OT. OK, I’m sure as the rules are written there would still be a 2-minute warning if you’re late enough in the 2nd OT. Which, I’d say it’s the playoffs, if you’re that far into OT you don’t need a 2-minute warning: get your ass out there and score. And I might say “after 2 possessions, take 5 minutes and regroup; after 4 possessions, then take 15 minutes.”

But now I wonder who would have played the intermission between the 2nd and 3rd OT if the game had gone that far.

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That definitely confused me because I’m used to overtime/extra time in soccer, which has a set number of minutes for the extra period. There were pros and cons of receiving first and the analytics (actuarials?) say that first receiver has around a 50.2% chance of winning.

Pros were you have a big chance of winning if scores are level after each team has possession. Another is your defense gets a rest.

Cons were that the second receiving team knows what they are aiming for and will play all four downs if the other team has scored. Also they will play conservatively if they only need a field goal to win. Receiving second will be higher pressure because the game could end instantly with one mistake.

Agreed. Changing ends after 15 minutes is just going to waste more time.

Is the 50.2% based on one period and time can run out or tie, which are not SB possibilities?

In the SB, I would rather go 2nd, for the knowledge of what needs to be done - especially, in SB more willing to take tie and then keep playing, where in regular season, teams may decide to win or lose

It’s for playoff rules (when there has to be a winner) -

The team that receives the ball to start overtime has between 50.19% and 50.29% chance to win the game under the new rules, according to simulations run by [ESPN’s Brian Burke]). The total value depends on whether the team getting the ball second goes for a two-point conversion after a touchdown, but it remains above a 50 percent chance of winning.

It would be interesting to know the odds for the team receiving third (if scores are equal). They might be so high, that the second receiving team should always go for a win (which may entail a 2 point conversion). A follow-on question, should the team receiving first go for a 2-point conversion if they score a touchdown?

Which is basically a toss-up: every 1000 Super Bowls, random first-receiving teams win 502 on average.

These odds are different for specific teams in a specific Super Bowl. How one would adjust these odds? Based on play up to that point, or something. Oh yeah, they’re tied.
Which is likely why these are the rules now for the Super Bowl.

forgot about the 3rd possession

As expected. The NFL is on a roll.

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In a domed stadium it probably doesn’t matter, but sometimes there is a definite advantage going in one direction on the field over the other which is why they switch every quarter.


1234 - sure – no NFL conspiracy

It was nice of this guy to run 1000 simulations. But it is complete bunk. It is only as good as the assumptions, which will never be anywhere near accurate enough. Nobody should take the results of this simulation and present it as anything but speculation.


Is that counting both the CBS and Nickelodeon broadcasts or just CBS? I watched it on Paramount+, not sure how that gets counted.

It’s a two-minute rest period.

I think this needs to be balanced against this:

Which I think could also play a huge role into the final decision.

However, Shanahan has claimed that they already decided how they’ll chose if they won the OT coin flip before the game started.

Not to reveal all of my strategies, but during the playoffs, the surprise opening OT onside kick is in my repertoire.


If the kicking team recovers the ball, does that count as a chance to score for the receiving team?

Onside kickoff? I would think not
Fumbled return, yes


yes. it is “an opportunity to possess the ball”