Ghana advances to Qatar over Nigeria
Who’s ready for USA/Ghana IV?
Senegal beats Egypt in PKs
Mendy’s 2nd shootout win for Senegal in 2 months. You wonder if Chelsea would have a EFL Cup if they kept him on…
Portugal wins and is in
1 Like
And Poland over Sweden
1 Like
North Macedonia got a lot farther than anyone would have predicted but the bubble burst today.
1 Like
Morocco and Tunisia advance.
Cameroon and Algeria moving into AET.
Hurrah for Ghana and Tunisia (both ranked lower than Canada at 33).
Tunisia is ahead of Canada on live rankings
But I believe a Canada win over Panama and they pass them for last spot in Pot 3. Draw or lose and they are top of Pot 4
Agreed. A Canada win over Panama would put Canada at 1504 points, over Tunisia. I think the pots currently look like this:
A - Qatar (A1), Brazil, Belgium, France, Argentina, England, Spain, Portugal
B - Netherlands, Denmark, Mexico, Germany, USA, Switzerland, Uruguay, Croatia
C - Senegal, Iran, Japan, Morocco, Serbia, Poland, South Korea, Tunisia/Canada
D - Canada/Tunisia, Cameroon, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, Ghana, UEFA Path A, CONMEBOL 5th / AFC 5th, CONCACAF 4th / OFC
Peru is up 2-0 on Paraguay at the half, and as long as they don’t piss that away they’ll be 5th and playing the Australia/UAE winner.
It’s a bit early to discuss 2026, but there will be 48 teams, and nine teams from Africa will qualify.
Best way, IMO would be to have six groups of six teams (CAF has 54 teams; top 18-ranked teams qualify automatically; first round of knockouts have 36 teams cut to 18), six winners advance; the six second-place teams play knockouts for the final three spots.
Thanks for the additional input: I only knew Canada needed to beat Panama to slip into Pot 3. Hope the US thumping of Panama on Sunday has demoralized them. Our missed opportunities against CR may come back to haunt us.
Honestly pot 3 isn’t much better than pot 4. I don’t think there is much advantage to being in one or the other.
2 bids (CONCACAF) on the line 3/30
1 bid (UEFA) on the line TBD in June
2 intercontinental playoff spots (CONCACAF, OFC) on the line 3/30
1 intercontinental playoff spot (AFC) 6/7
Qualified - 27
Hosts - Qatar
UEFA - Germany, Denmark, France, Belgium, Croatia, Spain, Serbia, England, Switzerland, Netherlands, Portugal, Poland
CONMEBOL - Brasil, Argentina, Ecuador, Uruguay
AFC - Iran, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia
CONCACAF - Canada
CAF - Ghana, Senegal, Tunisia, Morocco, Cameroon
Slots Remaining - 5
UEFA - 1
Wales vs Scotland/Ukraine winner (played in June)
CONMEBOL - 0.5
Peru vs UAE/Australia (Jun 13 or Jun 14)
AFC - 0.5
Winner goes to playoff vs Peru
UAE vs Australia (Jun 7)
CONCACAF - 2.5
2nd/3rd place auto qualify, 4th place goes to playoff vs OFC 1st
USA, Mexico, Costa Rica at least in playoff (Mar 30)
OFC - 0.5
Winner goes to playoff vs CONCACAF 4th
Solomon Islands vs. New Zealand (Mar 30)
I stumbled across this World Cup draw simulator
By the elo ratings, this is the best possible group for USA
Qatar - 51
USA - 15
Tunisia - 59
Scotland - 34
I could be wrong, but trying to adhere to only 1 team from each continent but Europe, Qatar counts as an Asian team, and we can’t play the OFC.
1 Like
I’d feel good with any combination of Qatar and Pot 3/4, with the exception of Poland.
Worst group by elo?
Brazil - 1
USA - 15
Serbia - 18
Wales - 20
1 Like
Group of death?
Brasil - 1
Germany - 9
Serbia - 18
Canada - 22
1 Like
Everyone wants Qatar in their Group…..
1 Like
But even a small advantage could be significant. In 1986 it didn’t matter who was in Canada’s Group as there were zero expectations for them (and they lived up to expectations by not scoring a goal in their three games). However, with a favourable draw, Canada might get to the knockout round this time which would be a huge success for the team. That possibility is enhanced by them being in Pot 3. They still need one of the weaker Pot 2 teams in the Group for a realistic chance but there is quite a range in quality in the Pot 2 teams. And, of course, getting Qatar from Pot 1 would be sweet.