2022 FIFA World Cup Discussion Thread

One can record the American Football AFC game, watch the soccer game for 105 minutes, then start watching the American Football game and catch up to live TV before it ends.
(I’ve found it takes at least 2.5 hours of delay, and this could go into forever OT.)

I’ll be out of town, so I’ll probably record all three games (definitely the soccer game, and NFC since there are Ram fans in the house), be done in 4.5 hours or so after I get home.

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I also (probably) have a 7th grade basketball game to watch at the same time. I need to talk to the boy to get him to throw one of their games on Saturday so they would be done earlier in the day on Sunday.

South Korea becomes the 15th country to qualify for Qatar. We know the top-3 in Group B is going to be Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia; who goes directly and who has to go through the playoffs is still TBD, but right now it looks like the Aussies are staring at having to go through the Group A 3rd-place team (currently UAE), then the CONMEBOL 5th-place team to qualify.

That’s a hard route. Peru, Chile and Columbia are 5th through 7th right now.

The way the 1st half has gone, I will not be shocked if (A) Mexico loses this match, and/or (B) they shitcan Martino for Herrera II.

Adekugbe picks up a yellow late in CAN-SLV. If I’ve tracked cards correctly, that puts him and Henry out for the CRC match in March.

Mexico and USA at 12th and 13th in FIFA rankings just behind Germany.
Canada moves from 40 to 33.

Finally, resolution to the Brazil-Argentina qualifier that was abandoned. The 4 Argentina players at the heart of the dispute are banned from the final 2 qualifiers. Going to really hurt Argentina’s chances of qualifying, since it’s already through.

Argentina’s soccer federation fined 200K francs.
Brazil’s soccer federation fined 500K francs.

Match to be replayed in full at a time TBD.

UEFA moves Russia’s 2nd round opening leg from Russia, to be played at a neutral site TBD.

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The affected countries have upped the ante and now refusing to play Russia anywhere.

FIFA goes about as far as I’d expect right now:

  • Russia can’t compete under its country logo of RUS; it will instead be RFU, for Football Union of Russia. Thanks Ray, that oughta do it sentiment goes here.
  • The Russian flag cannot be displayed in connection with the team, and the Russian national anthem will not be played on behalf of the team. Again, symbolic.
  • Russia must play any home matches in a neutral venue, without fans. Would be even more effective if Russia has to pay full costs for stadium operations for such games.
  • Doesn’t rule out excluding the team from competition, including the World Cup, but not ready to go there just yet.

I didn’t think everyone was going along with FIFA’s proposal. Poland still insists on boycotting any Russian match and I would not be surprised if the other two countries follow suit.

Interesting for Ukraine as they may still qualify for 2022 World Cup. Difficult for them to play any games anywhere with the current situation.

NYT is reporting FIFA will ban Russia from the World Cup and football indefinitely, with a decision reportedly to be delivered as soon as tonight.

Behind paywall because NYT

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I’ll believe it when I read it (for free).
We still have about a month. Maybe things will cool down.

FIFA received quite a backlash for its previous position. They must have realized this is not a hill to die on!

NYTimes is the one American source of news I pay for so will check out the story online. Thanks.

Russia is banned from FIFA and UEFA competition at all levels until further notice. TBD: whether Poland advances to the Group B final in WC qualifying or if someone is named to take Russia’s place. [I suspect FIFA wants a little time to see how things play out before naming any replacement.]

Immediate implication for UEFA: RB Leipzig [scheduled to play Spartak Moscow] advances to the Europa League quarters.

Belarus was long eliminated from WC qualifying and has no teams remaining in UEFA competitions this season, but with it now joining in I suspect sports federations will start taking actions accordingly. IIHF has already taken the lead here, kicking Russia and Belarus out. IOC followed shortly after, banning athletes and officials from both countries from competition. [Not sure it has a real effect unless it still stands and we approach 2024.]

Davies continues to recover. He was the spark plug in Canada’s earlier qualifying win against Panama. However Canada managed three wins without him in their January matches.

World-Cup-distantly-related:

Scotland and Poland will play a friendly next Thursday, proceeds going to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s match with Scotland was postponed until June. Poland’s match with Russia was canceled, giving Poland a bye.

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We got Pot news!

FIFA has released the details for the World Cup draw on April 1 (5pm BST). Your draw seeds:
Qatar
Belgium
France
Brazil
Argentina
England
Italy*
Spain

*If Italy fail to qualify, Portugal seeded. If Portugal also don’t qualify, it’s Denmark.

It’s done by FIFA Ranking, so the next 8 best-ranked teams to qualify will be in Pot 2.

Then the next 8 in Pot 3.

Pot 4 contains the remaining 5 to have qualified, plus the winners of the final UEFA playoff, and the two intercontinental playoffs.

As usual, teams from the same confederation will be kept apart in each of the eight groups with the exception of UEFA, which is represented by 13 teams. Five out of the eight groups will therefore have two European teams.

While the final draw will determine the group fixtures, the final match schedule will be confirmed after games have been assigned to a stadium and kick-off time for each matchday to provide the most beneficial kick-off time for audiences at home.

So, what else do we now know about the draw pots?

Denmark are Pot 2 if either Italy or Portugal qualify

Also in Pot 2 will be:
Netherlands
Germany
Switzerland
Croatia

Plus, if they qualify auto:
Mexico
United States
Uruguay

Senegal have a decent chance of being in Pot 2, should they qualify.

They would need one of:
Portugal and Italy fail to qualify
One of Mexico, USA, Uruguay fail to qualify automatically

If Senegal fail to qualify, then Iran or Peru best placed for Pot 2.

The three playoff winners (played June) being in Pot 4 also creates the possibility of a strong group.

For instance, Uruguay are ranked 16th in the World, but if they have to come through the intercontinental playoff they will be in Pot 4, when they would usually be in Pot 2.

So, you could have France and Germany drawn together, and get Uruguay from Pot 4.

It will also be harsh on the winner of the Ukraine playoff path. Ukraine are ranked 27th, with Wales (20th), Austria (30th) and Scotland (40th).

Could get a lower pot than ranking would earn.

Canada will need to see if they are Pot 3 or Pot 4, if they seal a second appearance at the World Cup finals.

It’s going to depend who else qualifies automatically this week.

Wins over this next week would boost their chances of Pot 3 and perhaps a more favourable draw.

Little add here on the possible 8th seed, as there’s a twist in the tale.

While Italy are guaranteed to be seeded if they qualify, Portugal (and Denmark) could be overtaken even if they win both games.

So who could be the 8th seed?

The twist is that if either Mexico or United States win all three of their qualifiers this week, and Italy fail to qualify, it will be a CONCACAF nation who is in Pot 1.

Mexico and United States play each other, so only one can win all three matches.

There is also a chance for Netherlands or Germany to overtake Denmark across the friendlies and take a place among the seeds in Pot 1 (if neither Portugal nor Italy qualify).

But three wins for Mexico or United States trumps anything else, should Italy fail to make it.

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I was thinking about this last night, and thought that the USA had a really outside shot at getting seeded. I didn’t post it though, because I wasn’t totally confident about it.

Is it possible that neither Italy nor Portugal qualying from Path C? Sure. It would have to be Turkey beating both, because I cannot see North Macedonia knocking off Italy on the road. Presuming that doesn’t happen, Turkey has to go on the road twice and win both. That’s a hell of an ask.

I’m not opposed to going for broke and trying to get seeded, if we think Turkey or North Macedonia can do the improbable. If we’re really that worried about not securing an automatic qualifying spot in the final 3 games, we might as well plan on not staying beyond the group stage if we make it. But do I think it’s likely we can get seeded with 3 wins? No.

Mexico certainly has a much better chance than the US of winning all three remaining games given they play the US at home and then play two non-contenders. Can’t see the US winning all three games given they play three contenders with two games on the road.

The FIFA rankings will be updated at March 31 before the draw. I don’t expect three wins given their competition but if Canada did somehow pull that feat off would that move them up to Pot 3? They have gone from 72 to 33 in FIFA rankings over the past year.