Made this for myself and thought I’d share - situation going into the last set of games (basically: here’s how each team can advance). Misses some scenarios where they tie on points and tie on goal differential and it goes to goals scored, but this was already getting long as it was. I also called out the game I felt was most pivotal in each group.
Group A
Netherlands - through with win or draw vs Qatar
Ecuador - through with draw or win vs Senegal or if they lose by less than Netherlands loses to Qatar.
Senegal - through with win or draw if Qatar beats Netherlands by >2.
Qatar - out
Game to watch: Ecuador vs Senegal
Group B
England - through unless they lose by >3 and US/Iran decisive or lose by >6 and US/Iran draw
Iran - through with win or draw and Wales draw/loss
USA - through with win
Wales - through with win and Iran/US draw
Game to watch: Iran vs USA
Group C
Poland - through with win or draw or loss by < 3 and Saudi Arabia/Mexico draw or loss and Mexico win with winning margins being less than 5 between both games combined
Argentina - through with win vs Poland or draw vs Poland and Saudi Arabia loss by less than 4
Saudi Arabia - through with win vs Mexico or draw vs Mexico and Argentina loss to Poland
Mexico - through with win vs Saudi Arabia and either - Poland beats Argentina or Mexico wins by >3 and Poland/Argentina draw or Argentina’s win + Mexico’s win come by 5 combined total goal
Game to watch: Poland vs Argentina
Group D
France - through
Australia - through with win or draw vs Denmark and Tunisia draw/loss
Denmark - through with win vs Australia and Tunisia draw/loss/win by less than Denmark
Tunisia - through with win vs France and Australia/Denmark draw or win vs France and Denmark wins by less than Tunisia
Game to watch: Australia vs Denmark
Group E
Spain - through with win or draw or loss and Costa Rica/Germany draw
Japan - through with win or draw and Germany draw/loss or draw and Germany win by 1 but Japan scores more goals than Germany
Costa Rica - through with win or draw and Japan loss
Germany - through with win and Japan loss or win and Japan draw where Germany wins by 1+ or scores more goals than Japan
Game to watch: Japan vs Spain
Group F
Croatia - through with win or draw or loss and Morocco loses by more than Croatia
Morocco - through with win or draw or loss and Belgium loss or loss and Croatia loses by 2 more than Morocco or loss by < 3 and Belgium/Croatia draw
Belgium - through with win or draw and Morocco loses by >3
Canada - out
Game to watch: Croatia vs Belgium
Group G
Brazil - through
Switzerland - through with win or draw and Cameroon draw/loss
Cameroon - through with win and Switzerland draw/loss
Serbia - through with win and Cameroon draw/loss/win by 2 fewer goals than Serbia
Game to watch: Serbia vs Switzerland
Group H
Portugal - through
Ghana - through with win or draw and South Korea draw/loss/win by 1
South Korea - through with win and Ghana loss or win by more than 1 and Ghana draws
Uruguay - through with win and South Korea draw/loss/win by 2 fewer goals than Uruguay
Game to watch: Ghana vs Uruguay