Mexico goes to C with Argentina.
Say the U.S. goes 2nd in their group. They would get the Group A winner in the Round of 16, and I don’t know that Netherlands scares me. Win the group, and you get whoever is 2nd in Group A and that damn well better be a rubber stamp to the quarters.
But I hope they get the runner up position in B to get to the Round of 16. But Netherlands will be tough
US will be playing Mon 11/21, Fri 11/25, and Tues 11/29
A - Qatar, Netherlands
B - England, USA
C - Argentina, Mexico
D - France, Denmark
E - Spain, Germany
F - Belgium, Croatia
G - Brazil, Switzerland
H - Portugal, Uruguay
USA will have its hands full with Iran
Rematch of 1998 looming. It better be a different result.
Mexico is in the Group of Death so far, and they could still end up with the TBD European qualifier.
Mexico may well not advance
England on Black Friday. Iran on 11/29
A - Qatar, Netherlands, Senegal
B - England, USA, Iran
C - Argentina, Mexico, Poland
D - France, Denmark, Tunisia
E - Spain, Germany, Japan
F - Belgium, Croatia, Morocco
G - Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia
H - Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea
This could be worse for the U.S. The path out is there, it’s all whether guys play with confidence.
A - Qatar, Netherlands, Senegal, Ecuador
B - England, USA, Iran, Wales/Scotland/Ukraine
C - Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia
D - France, Denmark, Tunisia, Australia/UAE/Peru
E - Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica/New Zealand
F - Belgium, Croatia, Morocco, Canada
G - Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon
H - Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea, Ghana
No weak teams in Canada’s Group. Will be tough to get any points. Had hoped to get into H or A
After the first 3 pots were drawn, Canada probably got the 2nd best option. A would have obviously been it, D/E/H would have been a virtually certain “not advancing, maybe we can win a game” and G would have evoked thoughts of a full repeat of '86. Still not easy, but I can see Croatia getting picked off and then Morocco should be an easier mark.
Canadian coach in the post-draw analysis gives the usual Canadian response: just happy to be there!
Scoring a goal would be an improvement over 1986 so a low bar.
Meanwhile, “Sure would be a shame if someone should attack you…”
No better way to promote inclusiveness and diversity and the embrace of the human spirit and all that stuff that FIFA espouses as being part of the celebration of the World Cup than to let the host country abuse people who want to show off those kinds of displays of compassion and togetherness.
$$$$$ though, amirite?
Another way to think about it: if Canada beats Panama, they land in the 3rd pot (great!) and then they take Tunisia’s place and get drawn with France and Denmark and probably Peru. That would have been ugly.
Could be worse. You could be Mexico, staring at Argentina and Poland.
Just for fun, I pulled the elo ratings from https://www.eloratings.net/ to look at the groups. For now I just averaged the elo scores for pot 4 where there are multiple possibilities. Group B looks tough for the US, as there will be 3 pretty evenly matched teams likely fighting for one spot.
| Group | Pot 1 | Pot 2 | Pot 3 | Pot 4 | Pot 1 | Pot 2 | Pot 3 | Pot 4 | Average | 4a | 4b | 4c |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Qatar | Netherlands | Senegal | Ecuador | 1662 | 1938 | 1729 | 1840 | 1792 | |||
| B | England | USA | Iran | Wales/Scotland/Ukraine | 2039 | 1822 | 1820 | 1796 | 1869 | 1841 | 1730 | 1817 |
| C | Argentina | Mexico | Poland | Saudi Arabia | 2108 | 1848 | 1799 | 1634 | 1847 | |||
| D | France | Denmark | Tunisia | Australia/UAE/Peru | 2116 | 1936 | 1612 | 1683 | 1837 | 1677 | 1515 | 1856 |
| E | Spain | Germany | Japan | Costa Rica/New Zealand | 2039 | 1966 | 1796 | 1651 | 1863 | 1743 | 1558 | |
| F | Belgium | Croatia | Morocco | Canada | 2069 | 1855 | 1738 | 1798 | 1865 | |||
| G | Brazil | Switzerland | Serbia | Cameroon | 2155 | 1920 | 1845 | 1631 | 1888 | |||
| H | Portugal | Uruguay | South Korea | Ghana | 1984 | 1923 | 1800 | 1540 | 1812 | |||
| ! |
Mexico and CR (assuming they qualify) should have short WCs.
Some commentators calling Group E the Group of Death but I don’t buy that: you need four tough teams. No real Group of Death this time. Group A is the biggest outlier but in a different direction.