Well, when Illinois runs the table and wipes the floor with Michigan and {presumably} Ohio State in the B10 Championship game, they slide into slot 7 here, and yes you may be right that Ohio State could still be theoretically available for the last playoff spot.
Not sure if even Illinois makes it with their good name and poor schedule, which includes a loss to the last-place Indiana (“But, first week!”) of the opposite B10 Division.
Looking at the schedule UMich v Ill on 11/19. If Ill win that, yeah, that could set up a rematch, or a bout with an unbeaten tOSU (or once-beaten – playing at PSU this week).
So far, Illinois hasn’t beaten anyone of note. Near-bottom UVa, squeaked by Iowa.
Fun clusterfuck possible if PSU beat tOSU and tOSU beat UMich. Three way tie at the top of their division. Checking tie-breaker (before looking, my guess: BCS standings will determine the championship-contending team)…
I’m back.
Ah. If ILL beats Michigan, but the three division teams are tied, then Mich, by virtue of a better division record will be the Division representative.
Once beaten SEC East runner-up (UGA/TENN)
3 teams from the SEC make the playoff
I wasn’t thinking Illinois but it was implied by my use of runner up. I was thinking more Michigan and Ohio State both making it if the only loss was a close loss to each other
Seems reasonable. I’ll squeeze that in. #8, maybe.
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I was completely joking about my Illini having any chance at the playoff. 10,000 to 1 against. 8 wins would be great. 9 wins seems plausible (assuming Michigan beats them in Ann Arbor, they still have a probable win left over NW, and 3 coinflip games with Neb, Purdue, and Mich State) So a 9 win Illinois team potentially makes the Duke’s Mayo Bowl or maybe the Music City Bowl?
I’m not that excited about them winning the Big10 West and then getting pummeled by Ohio State by 50. And I do think that Ohio State would run up the score to improve/protect their playoff seeding. No knock against OSU. I think the current system encourages/requires that.
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How else do you prove how good a team you are at the end of the season? I mean, name recognition alone gets you top ten votes at the beginning of the season.
Well, beating a better team should count more in the formula than destroying a weaker team by dozens of points. Perhaps margin of victory should be capped at 21 in the statistical rankings.
In 2014, OSU beat Wisconsin by 59! Why? Because they wanted to show they could. I think a system that promotes this behavior is irresponsible and unsportsmanlike.
Beating a one-loss team by dozens of points is impressive.
Beating a shit team you paid to show up by dozens of points is usually just something that cannot be helped, because the third string wants to score, too.
You want sportsmanship? You’ll have to watch more civilized sports.
PSU was in excellent shape vs tOSU late, but man did they shit the bed in just a handful of late plays. Turned a good game into a blowout in a couple minutes.
Speaking of Sportsmanlike, I guess a gaggle of Michigan State Spartans unleashed some frustrations after the loss to Michigan by ganging up on 1 or 2 Wolverine players after the game. In the tunnel, they beat down a couple of Michigan players. There IS video. Suspensions will surely follow. Perhaps even dismissals from the team. We will see.
But the recipient of the good fortune will be the Illini, hosting a depleted Spartan team in Champaign this weekend.
Is that also raising money for the $100K fine from the SEC for failure to maintain a safe playing environment?
GoA updated Conference Rankings 11/02/2022, unlikely to change in order, but some will drop due to non-existence. Added a Divisional Second-Place SEC team, as one will exist after this weekend. Might have to add “two-loss SEC Champion” somewhere, as LSU currently on top of the SEC West. Worry about that next week if still possible.
- Undefeated SEC Champion (2 teams left)
- Undefeated Big10 Champion (2)
- Undefeated ACC Champion (1)
- Undefeated Big 12 Champion (1)
- Once-Beaten SEC Champion
- Once-Beaten SEC Runner-up
- Once-Beaten SEC Division second-place
- Once-Beaten Big10 Champion
- Once-Beaten ACC Champion
- Once-Beaten Big 12 Champion
- Once-Beaten Pac12 Champion
- Once-Beaten Independent
And if the top 4 of your slots all lose, we could wind up with 5, 6, and two 7s for an all 1-loss SEC CFP. Not criticizing your ranking order, just musing if the committee would ever put 3+ from the same conference.
ETA: scratch that, one of the SEC west would need two losses I think, though they could be the conference champion as you noted.
Here is a delusional commentary from LA Times, trying to get local eyeballs for the paper.
For those without subscription:
Summary
With Tuesday’s release of the first College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, we can officially start thinking about the road to SoFi Stadium for the CFP national championship on Monday, Jan. 9.
And most important: What is the path to the title game for USC and UCLA, which have slipped into the top 10 of some of the polls with one month left in the season?
The selection committee confirmed what hopeful Trojans and Bruins fans already knew — the winner of the Nov. 19 crosstown rivalry showdown is going to need some help to be one of the four teams selected to the bracket with a shot at SoFi glory. The good news? The machinations are not totally unreasonable.
USC is ranked No. 9, the Trojans, in Lincoln Riley’s first season, making their return to the CFP top 10 for the first time since 2017.
UCLA is ranked No. 12, making its return to the CFP top 15 for the first time since 2014 under Jim Mora.
USC is looking up at: 1. Tennessee (8-0); 2. Ohio State (8-0); 3. Georgia (8-0); 4. Clemson (8-0); 5. Michigan (8-0); 6. Alabama (7-1); 7. Texas Christian (8-0); No. 8 Oregon (7-1). No. 10 Louisiana State (6-2) and No. 11 Mississippi (7-1) are slotted between the Trojans and Bruins.
Should UCLA feel slighted by its ranking compared with USC, considering the Bruins easily handled the Utah squad that handed the Trojans their only loss, by one point on the road? Quickly, no. Chip Kelly’s team will have its chance to prove its worth in the Rose Bowl the Saturday before Thanksgiving.
Before USC and UCLA can spend any time thinking about the CFP — the coaches certainly won’t — they have to win the games in front of them and make the Pac-12 championship game in Las Vegas on Friday, Dec. 2.
“Most of the time, I don’t even know what it is, because it doesn’t matter right now,” Riley said Tuesday. “It does not matter one bit. You can go be ranked whatever, you go lose, it don’t matter. You keep winning, it takes care of itself.”
Playing it out, we can assume that two spots of the playoff field will go to the Southeastern Conference champion (likely one of Tennessee, Georgia or Alabama) and the Big Ten champion (likely one of Ohio State or Michigan). Tennessee and Georgia play Saturday in Athens, Ga. Ohio State and Michigan play Nov. 26 in Columbus, Ohio. If Alabama beats LSU and Ole Miss, it will play the winner of Tennessee-Georgia in the SEC championship game Dec. 3.
In other words, the last month of the regular season will function like a playoff for five of the top six teams. Only two will definitely survive.
USC and UCLA need to root against Clemson and TCU the rest of the way. The Tigers and Horned Frogs are unlikely to stay ahead of a one-loss Pac-12 champion that has built a ton of momentum late.
The Trojans and Bruins — and this might be hard to stomach — should also root for Oregon to win out until the Pac-12 title game. The more impressive the Ducks look going in, the more USC or UCLA would benefit from knocking them off in Vegas.
The Trojans have the opportunity to finish the season with wins over a top-10 UCLA, an improving Notre Dame and a top-10 Oregon.
Because of that gantlet of a finishing kick, if there aren’t four unbeaten Power Five conference champions, it would be hard to imagine a one-loss USC in particular being left out of the four-team field — especially with Los Angeles hosting the CFP title game.
My response is “No, the Pac12’s best team got already drubbed by UGA. That Pac12 championship game will have to be a more severe beat-down by an L.A. team over Oregon to have ANY consideration. Also, your non-conference schedules are shit.”
In response to some of the delusions:
SEC could easily get two of the spots, seeing as Alabama can beat an undefeated UTenn (setting up a "best-of-three) or undefeated UGA, which, again, beat the shit out of a Power 5 Conference’s probable Champion (though it was the PAC12’s). Neither of those one-lossers will be shut out, except by undefeated Clemson AND TCU.
So, these Pac12 teams ALSO (along with Clem and TCU losses) need to root for an undefeated SEC champion AND all other SEC teams having TWO losses.
And, POSSIBLY having a local team in the Championship game seems very optimistic, as that team would have to win a semi-final over a highest-level team. And I don’t think the CFP needs to prioritize a local team for, what, ticket sales?? Those other teams’ fans would LOVE to come to SoCal in the dead of Winter. There are easily 30000 fans of each of those teams in SoCal (or Arizona) already.
Guess there will be a bit of a shakeup in the polls this week.
Not in the GoA Rankings.
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Might need to include 2 loss SEC Champ in the rankings somewhere like you suggested earlier, as that’s more likely now
Also 1-loss B1G division 2nd place for the UM/tOSU runner up, right below the same for SEC
Seems to me that TEN has perhaps the easiest potential path to the playoff. They have a relatively easy schedule. The other key contenders either play in their respective conference championship or play each other (tOSU/UM).
A possible downside scenario for TEN is an SEC West team winning the SEC championship. That could knock TEN out even if they win out.