I do plan on putting around 200k into crypto and another 200k into NIO.
I heavily advise against this. Both NIO and cryptos are in a huge bubble from retail YOLO hype meme train investors. This euphoria is dying out and money is rotating back into traditional sectors. I think going with a broad-based index fund is smart in the short-term.
NIO’s valuation is insane considering they have terrible margins and are getting dominated by Tesla on their own turf. Their margins are poor and they have poor branding. Its investors are people who missed the TSLA rally and are hoping for a repeat. Nothing can justify their valuation.
For cryptos, wait until the next halving cycle from bitcoin (Should be summer of 2024). Bitcoin’s parabolic rise from the supply shock eventually spills over into other cryptos.
After the next halving, buy bitcoin and wait until you see upwards movement in ethereum. Then, sell your bitcoin and buy ethereum. Then exit before the bubble pops.
The market has been going up like crazy, I also got my fellowship and after I paid off the house my house-related expenses were only $300 a month or so. Portfolio is mostly S&P 500 large cap stock mutual funds.
I guess it could be possible, but SP500 index is slow and should only be for retired folks or people who are waiting for a better opportunity like what I’m doing now as TSLA continues to tank.
I’ve never seen anyone who became millionaire in their 20s or 30s by investing strictly in the SP500. Did you get any financial help from your parents?
Where do you live where housing expenses are only $300 a month?
Well, if market can be speculated, everyone would be rich.
When I was trying to buy Tesla at $35 years ago, people said the exact same thing as you are saying now, and that in the universe could justify its insane valuation.
Welp, it’s at $800 now.
I buy the hype without regard to its intrinsic value. If I wanted intrinsic value, I’d be buying a farm instead.
Tesla’s current valuation makes no sense considering their current business lines. It got up to $900 due to SP500 inclusion, retail FOMO and a huge short squeeze. NIO only had retail FOMO, which is slowly dying out.
I believe that Tesla has the potential of going much higher (10s of trillions in marketcap), but it can’t be through their current business model of only selling cars, battery packs and solar panels. Tesla needs to prove that FSD is possible and roll out robotaxis. It’s not wise to stay in Tesla now when their entire bullcase now rests on them solving FSD, which could be fake news. This is a completely different situation than last year, where Tesla was clearly executing their plan and creating catalysts but the market just ignored it all. Tesla went from a good investment to a speculative one over the past year.
NIO rides on the coattails of TSLA, so if TSLA doesn’t see upwards movement, neither will NIO.
The hype of NIO was last year. If and when TSLA solves FSD, we may see upwards movement in both TSLA and NIO, but until then, they’ll continue to bleed.
You can double your money every month… and also halve your money every month.
If I invest $1,000 and it goes up to $2,000 and then back to $1,000 all in the same month… and then this pattern repeats all year then I have doubled my money every month.
On Wednesday morning, Wood reportedly told a Businessweek event that: “If our research is correct, no promises, we believe our portfolios will more than triple over the next five years, so that’s more than a 25% annual rate of return . These innovation platforms have hit escape velocity. There is no turning back.”
I’m a bit surprised to see a generally overly-conservative bunch of actuaries planning on retiring early with what I would consider not enough. I don’t think we spend an obscene amount in a given year, but the planned recurring expenses alone would eat up a good chunk of 4% gains on a 1mm-2mm portfolio.
Our biggest expenses in today’s dollars in retirement between ages 40 and 65 will be:
$15k/year on family health insurance
$15k/year in income tax from 401k withdrawals
$8k/year on life insurance, homeowners insurance, property taxes
$7k/year on car payments (or equivalent on purchasing a car every 5 years)
So right off the top we are at $45k in expenses, and we haven’t even gotten to things like groceries, travel, home improvements, unforeseen repairs, etc. And that assumes there are no large unforeseen expenses like LTC.
Conservatively we would need to net about $8k/month to maintain our current lifestyle, which based on our current tax-advantaged asset mix, would come out to around a $3m net worth using a more conservative 3.5% withdrawal rate. Early retirement seems so expensive, and 20+ years is a lot of time for stuff to change.
When calculating net worth, do you consider the present value of future taxes for tax-advantaged accounts?
Yeah, just in general you need to think about taxes heading into retirement, early or not. I need to work more on this, my portfolio is tilting more and more towards my brokerage (after tax), which would be cap gains and not income. And, assuming the ACA survives, that might even let me get subsidies to cut health insurance costs. At least for some number of years.
I think people retiring on $1M are definitely the more minimalist types, you can’t buy a new car every five years on $1M unless you’re buying cars for $10k or whatever. At $2M, you’re able to pull down the median US income or thereabouts in passive income. You can argue about whether that’s enough, depends on a lot of factors like whether you have dependents and how lavish you’d like to live.
Between my wife and I, the current target is $3M (in today’s dollars, will likely go up a bit) plus a paid-for house, plus probably a bit more to minimize sequence of returns risk. And I doubt I’ll quite retire, I have an MSc in math and might teach at the college. I figure $3M plus no debt plus some income here and there… we’ll probably manage.
Same boat here. $3M target, hopefully by early 40s, but I have no idea what I’d do in retirement. I’m not a fan of the 40 hour work week, so doubt I’d find something as steady as a full time job, but not worried about keeping myself busy with volunteering, gambling, and travel.
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